2022 WISCONSIN RECAP: Run Me Over
The Badgers pound their way into stealing a game they probably should have already been winning big in the first place
Super bare-bones post this week as I tried to get it out early so that people had at least a day to read before the Iowa game.
We’re cursed by God to forever suffer one-score losses, but this one hurt a little less as (a) there’s not much left to play for this season, and (b) Nebraska was pretty clearly outplayed on both sides of the ball and lucky to be staked to a lead in the first place. Still would have loved to send Wisconsin home with an L for the Husker seniors and because Wisconsin is very annoying!
I’m very much in COACH RUMOR SZN mode (please check out my insane 38-minute read with some data breaking down several potential candidates), so the games feel a little perfunctory at this point, but I am still very stoked to eat a giant plate of leftovers and watch Black Friday tomorrow.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: If you’re a new subscriber, I would suggest reading the post detailing the newsletter’s plan for this year; it will better explain things like success rate and what the numbers are trying to accomplish. The season averages do not have the data for the Illinois or the Minnesota games included.
OFFENSE
GAME CHART
2022 Wisconsin Offensive Game Chart
OVERALL
Aesthetically, this looked like Nebraska’s worst offensive game of the season (non-backup-quarterbacks-playing category), but it was actually better on a success-rate basis than the Rutgers game. Moral victory! It was also Nebraska’s second-worst game on a yard-per-play basis, trailing only OU. A large part of the struggle was NU getting absolutely trucked on first down, with a far-and-away season-low efficiency to start possessions. Thirty percent of Nebraska’s first down plays Saturday went for negative yardage. That’s bad!
With Wisconsin playing clock control when it had the ball and Nebraska struggling to find offensive efficiency, the Huskers only got off 48 total non-garbage-time offensive snaps off. The low play total belies just how pass heavy NU was Saturday; its 60% passing rate manifested into only 20 attempts for quarterback Casey Thompson. That the offensive line was getting obliterated and forcing Thompson to pull the ball down to run also kept the attempt number low, but it was throwing a lot.
The Huskers found some success with their 21 personnel “Strong I out of the pistol” package on their first touchdown drive, running it for five straight snaps for 5 yards per play to get into position to score after the Wisconsin interception (this doesn’t sound that impressive, but with the offense being as bad as it was … it’s a highlight, OK?). But after the touchdown drive, coordinator Mark Whipple only went back to it for three snaps the rest of the game. Hmmm.
This game was also NU’s slowest by pace this season with Thompson in; the previous low for using tempo was 28.5% against Indiana.
RUNNING GAME
Some of these usage rates are pretty wonky, but I’m going to chalk that up to (a) small sample size from the limited number of plays NU ran, and (b) running game was clearly not working and they bailed on it pretty early. Saturday was NU’s worst rushing day of the season per success rate (at only 17.65%), and it was also just pretty clear from the eye tests that the Wisconsin d-line was piñata-ing the Nebraska offensive linemen.
Nebraska continued to be pretty good at the run concepts where they push the defensive linemen straight forward and no one is asked to move, and Whipple continues to utilize them less and less. The way increased use of split zone seems weird; Wisconsin was getting so much immediate penetration and blitzing so much it seems like a very tough ask to tell someone to come across the formation to seal off the backside. Can’t seal a dude off if he’s already three yards into the backfield by the time you turn your head!
Also worth noting that after utilizing a lot more reads in the running game with backup QBs they evaporated with Thompson back. Which I don’t get at all, because Thompson can scoot a bit? I don’t want him running QB T wrap or something like they have in the past, but I don’t see why they can’t be reading the backside EMOL on every zone play and having Thompson pull it a few times a game to keep people honest. That’s an easy button they’re not using. This offensive line is not good enough to play as basic as Whipple seems to want to.
PASSING GAME
Wisconsin was bringing a frankly insane amount of pressures Saturday, bringing heat or running a sim look on over half of NU’s dropbacks. Only Oklahoma and Indiana brought more pressure against NU so far this season. Thompson was actually pretty good against it from a success rate perspective, which hasn’t always been true this year.
A lot of these passing concepts were dead on arrival because of the poor offensive line play and because Wisconsin generally knew what was coming because Nebraska runs, like, 10 plays. It’s really amazing Thompson is doing anything at all while having to put on a Masterclass every week in pocket movement while trying to make his coordinator’s base install concepts work. I’ll talk more about this at some point in the offseason, but for what he’s been getting around him, Thompson has been really good and is certainly not the problem here. I’d love to have him come back for another season if he isn’t totally disgusted by playing here yet.
NU did run some more play action Saturday and seemed to be utilizing a new naked boot weakside Flood concept off an outside zone movement quite a bit. Wisconsin was running a ton of Cover 2 and Cover 3 (over half of NU’s 29 pass attempts were one of these two coverages), so it makes sense NU was relying on a ton of Smash concepts (a short in-breaking route with a deep corner behind it) and Flood concepts (a three-level concept with a vertical, a deep out, and a flat route). Wisconsin is one of the only teams NU’s faced that’s thrown a ton of Cover 2 at it, so some of these numbers were bound to be weird. Guess who else runs a lot of Cover 2? Iowa!
And … drumroll … NEBRASKA RAN IT’S FIRST SUCCESSFUL SCREEN OF THE SEASON! **200 AIR HORNS GO OFF SIMULTANEOUSLY AS I DO A SICK BURNOUT IN A MUSCLE CAR**
DEFENSE
GAME CHART
2022 Wisconsin Defensive Game Chart
OVERALL
I was surprised compiling this that Nebraska’s defensive numbers looked halfway decent considering every Wisconsin run felt as if it were going for 5 to 9 yards. NU’s big play prevention (or more likely Wisconsin’s inability to generate big plays) kept the yardage from being too gnarly, and NU was able to generate some negative plays.
Defensive story of this game seemed pretty simple from watching and is backed up by these numbers: When Wisconsin lined up in heavy personnel with multiple tight ends or fullbacks, it pounded away for efficient gains on Nebraska’s five-man front. When Nebraska forced it into spread formations or 11 personnel, Wisconsin was a complete trainwreck and self-imploded its drives. The Badgers were actively terrified of Graham Mertz dropping back in this game, running the ball nearly 75% of their total snaps. They were very content to just sit in the Pro I with double Ys and let him hand it off. Almost every stat related to Nebraska’s Bear front (heavy boxes, single-high safety structures, Cover 1 and Cover 3) saw a season-high in usage Saturday as NU tried to match those big-boy packages (Wisconsin was using six offensive linemen on a ton of its plays) with not a lot of success.
One last defensive thing: Shoutout Ernest Hausmann. The freshman had a very rough start to the season after getting forced into the lineup due to injury, and he got picked on near-constantly by opponents early (especially Georgia Southern, which was more or less isolating him most plays and watching him be wrong), but he’s really improved. He made a ton of plays Saturday and looks like a dude the new coach needs to do everything in their power to keep.
Thanks, as always, for reading. Comments are open. Up next is Iowa. The Hawkeyes can clinch the West division with a win, so they have a lot to play for. Nebraska will just be trying to play spoiler. Hawkeyes have one of the best defenses in the country but are currently 112th in offensive SP+. Probably a lopsided game, but NU will have a chance if it can avoid the turnovers that are jet fuel for Iowa. And next newsletter you read … we’ll probably have a new coach! GBR.