THE FIELD: 2023 Minnesota
Trying to predict how two teams with a bunch of new players and coaches will match-up!
*As we don’t have any 2023 games to go off of yet, any stat with an asterisk by it is from 2022.
Glossary of terms1
OVERALL
Record: 0-0 (9-4, 5-4 Big Ten*)
Overall SP+ Ranking: 27th
Overall FEI Ranking: 19th
Overall F+ Ranking: 25th
Minnesota finished last year as the clear best team in the Big Ten West by the statistical services, but key mistakes, bad bounces, and unfortunately timed injuries led to a four-loss conference finish. A veteran-heavy team lost key players and enters a semi-reset in 2023, making 2022 feel like a bit of a missed opportunity for the Gophers, who have yet to win the West under Fleck despite continually producing teams that play near the top of it. Most advanced stat projections this season have Minnesota pegged comfortably ahead of Nebraska, but not by so wide a margin they should be considered heavy favorites.
Net Adjusted Yards Per Play: +0.69* (30th)
Net Adjusted Points Per Drive: +1.03* (14th)
Net 20+ Yard Plays Per Game: +0.54*
Net Havoc Plays: +0.99*
Minnesota was good last year in about every category you could want: They gained more yards per play than their opponent did against them, converted their yards into points more often than they let opponents, generated more big plays than they allowed, and caused more mistakes than they committed. Weird season!
OFFENSE
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Offensive Rating: 57th
FEI Offensive Rating: 25th
F+ Offensive Rating: 41st
Baseline Stats
Adjusted Yards Per Play: 5.57* (69th)
Adjusted Points Per Drive: 2.43* (50th)
20+ Plays Per Game: 3.69* (94th)
Havoc Plays Allowed Per Game: 8.77*
Money Down Efficiency
3rd Down Conversions: 52.1%* (3rd)
4th Down Aggressiveness: 0.84 fourth down attempts per game (127th)
Rushing
Rushing Attempts Per Game: 44.69* (8th)
Rushing Yards Per Game: 207.54* (16th)
Rushing Yards Per Attempt: 4.6* (46th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Per Game: 0.86 (75th)
Passing
Passing Attempts Per Game: 21.6* (126th)
Passing Yards Per Game: 182.2* (116th)
Passing Yards Per Attempt: 8.4* (18th)
20+ Yard Pass Plays Per Game: 2.53* (101st)
Every Husker fan by now should be familiar with Minnesota’s recent style of efficient, chain-moving inside zone runs that set up backbreaking downfield RPOs or deep play-action shots. It’s been a formula that has helped the Gophers play well above their offensive recruiting talent under Fleck and pump out quality offensive linemen and receivers. Their development-heavy strategy will receive a minor test this year as the offense loses arguably its three best players from this era — center John Michael Schmitz, tailback Mohamed Ibrahim, and quarterback Tanner Morgan. That trio played a combined 7,360 snaps for the Gophers over the last five seasons, and the backups present less clear paths to success. Also new are co-coordinators Greg Harbaugh Jr. and Matt Simon, previously the tight ends coach and receivers coach.
The stats from last year paint a picture of an offense that ran the ball efficiently — but not explosively — and used fear of the run to turn its few pass attempts into big plays. The new faces make it tough to tell what they’ll be on offense, but with three starters returning on the line, a quality transfer back, and a solid skill corps, it would reason they would able to do a lot of this again.
Quarterback
Athan Kaliakmanis, third-year sophomore
The Gophers’ presumptive starter filled in for an injured Morgan for four games in his 2022 redshirt freshman season, including last year’s 20-13 win over Nebraska. The Minnesota staff largely kept the kiddie bumpers on the offense in that stretch, with Kaliakmanis attempting just 40 passes over his first three starts. But he threw for 319 yards and two touchdowns in the final regular season game against Wisconsin.
In the limited action, Kaliakmanis did flash some aggressiveness for a backup, but it also came with some inefficiency. His average depth of target of 13.0 yards in his starts would have led the nation over a full season, but his adjusted completion percentage of 61.5% would have finished 149th, behind names like Spencer Petras and Graham Mertz. He did take care of the ball, committing just four turnover-worthy throws in his 111 pass attempts, a 2.9% rate (41st). Somehow all of his turnover-worthy throws turned into interception, a mildly funny run of bad luck. He’s also a threat with his legs, running for 5.9 yards per attempt and forcing five missed tackles with his 6’4, 215-pound frame.
Kaliakmanis hasn’t shown anything to suggest he’ll be effective from the pocket or in pure dropback situations, but Minnesota’s quarterbacks don’t need to be; they’re mostly required to make good decisions on RPOs, hit the glance routes and deep shots that come off defenses collapsing on their strong interior running game, and occasionally pull the ball on a zone read. He can do that.
Running Backs
Sean Tyler, fifth-year senior
Darius Taylor, true freshman
With longtime stalwart back Ibrahim off to the NFL after rushing for nearly 5,000 yards in his career, Fleck has indicated the RB room will be more of a rotation this year. Tyler, a transfer from Fleck’s previous coaching stop of Western Michigan, should get the first crack at it. The redshirt senior was an excellent breakaway threat at the lower level, finishing fifth nationally in percentage of his designed runs that went for 15 or more yards and averaging 3.23 yards after contact per attempt (ranked 26th nationally). WMU and Minnesota both primarily feature zone concepts, so fit shouldn’t be an issue. He’s not much of a pass catcher, with just 18 career targets, but the Gophers rarely feature backs in the passing game.
The other option appears to be the three-star recruit Taylor. The former Michigan prep star has been getting reps with the 1s per camp reports. Taylor ran for more than 2,400 yards as a senior and his 24/7Sports scouting report describes him thus: “Gets going north-south, finds lanes and hits them with good burst. Does not hesitate or try to dance too much. When he needs to, he has some wiggle and ability to make defenders miss. Experience as a receiver also allows him to be effective catching the ball. Runs tough and runs bigger than his listed size. … Measureables are not eye-popping, but solid all around.” Sounds like a Minnesota back!
Receivers/Tight Ends
X: Daniel Jackson, fourth-year senior
Z: Chris Autman-Bell, seventh-year senior
Slot: Corey Crooms, fifth-year senior
Y: Nick Kallerup, fifth-year senior
H: Brevyn Spann-Ford, fifth-year senior
The receiving weapons are probably the strength of the offense, with preseason first-team Big Ten honoree Spann-Ford likely the best player on the offensive unit. Overall, the Gophers return three players with over 78.5 receiving grade last year from PFF in Spann-Ford (82.1, 7th among all tight ends last year), Autman-Bell (80.1), and Jackson (78.5), then added Crooms (75.1) through the transfer portal from Western Michigan.
On the outside, Jackson led the team with 557 receiving yards, but Autman-Bell was on a star pace until he suffered a season-ending injury in the third game against Colorado. Up until that point, Autman-Bell had converted 11 of his 15 targets into catches (a 73.3% conversion rate that would have been good for 15th nationally over a full season) and 4.65 yards per route run (would have led the nation). Small sample theater is probably overinflating his value, but he’s been a solid receiver in past years and should be again. Jackson was less efficient but had the lowest drop rate on the team and forced 15 missed tackles after the catch, more than double any other Gophers receiver.
Crooms was a dangerous underneath weapon for the Chippewas out of the slot, finishing with 818 and 768 yards in the past two seasons, respectively, but with a low depth of target. He’s primarily going to work underneath. Spann-Ford (35.4%) will also spend some time split out in the slot and converted his targets into catches at only a slightly lower rate than Autman-Bell. Kallerup is your traditional de-facto sixth-offensive-lineman type of Y and only ran a route on 41% of his snaps last year. If he’s on the field, it’s to block.
Offensive Line
LT: Aireontae Ersery, fourth-year junior
LG: Tyler Cooper, fifth-year senior OR Karter Shaw, fifth-year senior
C: Nathan Boe, sixth-year senior
RG: Quinn Carroll, fifth-year senior
RT: Martes Lewis, fourth-year junior OR J.J. Guedet, fifth-year senior
A veteran offensive line has been the driving force behind the Gophers’ efficient running game the last few years, but they find themselves needing to replace three starters entering 2023. Carroll, a preseason first team All-Big Ten selection at tackle, and Ersery are the returning starters, and Boe is expected to step in for the second-round NFL draft pick Schmitz at center. The left guard and right tackle spots are up for grabs between Cooper, Shaw, Lewis, and Guedet.
I don’t have anything to go off of for this season, but based on 2022 data, expect the Gophers to be a great run blocking unit again. Three starters return from a line that finished 22nd nationally in Football Outsiders’ Average Line Yards stat that attempts to measure a line’s role in running success, and it finished second nationally in power success rate (percentage of runs on third or fourth down with fewer than two yards to go that achieved a first down) and sixth in stuff rate (percentage of carries by running backs that are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage). This line does not make mistakes in the run game, and if you let them get into short yardage, they’ve recently been one of the best teams at converting. They were an average to slightly-above-average pass-protecting unit in 2022, but if Minnesota’s offense is working as designed, they won’t be in that situation often.
DEFENSE
STATS
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Defensive Rating: 9th
FEI Defensive Rating: 22nd
F+ Defensive Rating: 14th
Baseline Stats
Yards Per Play Allowed: 4.88* (11th)
Points Per Drive Allowed: 1.39* (8th)
20+ Plays Allowed Per Game: 3.15* (8th)
Havoc Plays Per Game: 7.78* (N/A)
Money Down Efficiency
3rd Down Conversions Against: 27.88%* (6th)
Run Defense
Rushing Attempts Against Per Game: 28.92* (6th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 108.23* (16th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 3.8* (39th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Allowed Per Game: 0.61* (T-10th)
Pass Defense
Passing Attempts Against Per Game: 30.3* (46th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 185.7* (15th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 6.1* (10th)
20+ Yard Pass Allowed Plays Per Game: 2.53 (23rd)
Minnesota’s defense was putrid under Fleck until Joe Rossi took over as coordinator with four games left in the 2018 season but since has been one of the best units in the country, finishing ninth nationally last year in SP+. Last year was a strange season for the D: The Gophers were hell to pass against in 2022 and not much worse against the run, were among the nation’s most effective defenses in getting off the field on third down — and they did all this with an incredibly poor ability to penetrate into the backfield, with only three of their players having more than 15 total pass-rush pressures on the season and the team finishing dead last in the country tackles for loss. Hilarious!
That group lost six key contributors — including longtime linebacker Mariano Sori-Marin — but also returns preseason all-conference safety Tyler Nubin and added several transfers with big-time experience at lower levels.
Positions
Edge Defender
Jah Joyner, fourth-year junior
Danny Striggo, fourth-year senior
The Gophers will be hoping for in-house improvement for their pass rush, as their top two starters at defensive end are both players who played significant snaps last season. Joyner was actually a good pass rusher in a limited role — with 32 total pressures and an 18.0% pass-rush win rate (41st nationally among all players with at least 100 pass rush snaps) — but translated it into only 3.0 sacks, so look for some positive regression there. Striggow was the opposite, with a 5.9% pass rush win rate that somehow became 4.0 sacks. Both graded out fine against the run.
Interior Line
NOSE: Kyler Baugh, fifth-year senior
3-TECH: Deven Eastern, third-year sophomore
There are two new starters along the interior, with Baugh playing a big rotational role and starting a handful of games last year and Eastern seeing some snaps as a redshirt freshman. Baugh graded out as a decent pass rusher for a nose tackle, and Eastern graded out well in run defense in only 23 snaps. But the interior line is the least tested area of their defense and there’s little proven depth, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see NU test this Thursday.
Linebackers
MIKE: Ryan Selig, fifth-year senior
SAM: Joey Gerlach, second-year freshman
WILL: Cody Lindenberg, fourth-year junior
Lindenberg started the final six games of the regular season and graded out ahead of Sori-Marin as a pass rusher, against the run, and in coverage. He looks like an emerging star. Selig is a transfer — again from Western Michigan, which is apparently a Minnesota feeder program? — and finished 67th nationally among all qualified linebackers in run “stops” (any tackle made in position to be a successful play for the defense) and was 50th nationally among all qualified linebackers in completion percentage against. He looks like a solid addition, but the Big Ten isn’t often a pleasant place for transfer linebackers. Gerlach hasn’t really played but according to reports appears to be the starter on the strong-side.
Nickel
Jack Henderson, fourth-year senior
The Gophers brought in the transfer from Southeastern Louisiana after losing last year’s starter Michael Dixon to a transfer to Rutgers. Henderson was a disruptive box player at the FCS level, with 32 run stops last year, and he also showed some juice as a pass rusher out of the slot, with 12 pressures and two sacks in just 42 pass rush snaps. His underlying coverage numbers are less good, but he made two picks and had five pass break-ups, so he at least has some ball skills even if he’s getting regularly beat in coverage. At 6’3 and 215 pounds, Henderson’s profile reminds me a bit of JoJo Domann as an effective box nickel who can rush the passer on slot blitzes and make big plays against the run and pass in space. Minnesota doesn’t play as much nickel as other teams, but don’t be surprised if Henderson comes out of nowhere to make a splash play at some point Thursday.
Safeties
FS: Tyler Nubin, fifth-year senior
BOX: Darius Green, third-year sophomore
Nubin is the best player on this defense and probably would have been a Day 2 pick had he declared for the draft last year. The preseason Big Ten Safety of the Year is a rock-solid run defender, finishing eighth among Power 5 safeties in percentage of his tackles that ended in a “stop,” especially impressive considering he’s mostly playing from depth as a field safety. He’s not an elite coverage defender but only gave up one touchdown last year and ranked second among Power 5 safeties in percentage of targets thrown toward him that ended in a catch. Opposite Nubin, Minnesota lost five-year starter Jordan Howden to graduation, and Green appears the most likely to replace him. He showed good run defense and middling coverage in a reserve role last year.
Corners
Justin Walley, fourth-year junior
Tre’Von Jones, fifth-year senior
Walley returns after a solid season as a sophomore, in which he didn’t give up a completion longer than 35 yards and allowed a QB rating of just 48.6 when targeted. Jones is a transfer from Elon, who appears to have been a middling player at the FCS level but looks poised to start for Minnesota? Walley is a good corner; no idea how the other spot turns out.
Special Teams
Field Position
Offense average starting field position: 69.9 yards to go* (40th)
Defense average starting field position: 74.2 yards to go* (4th)
Explosive Plays
Return touchdowns per game: 0.00* (N/A)
Blocked kicks per game: 0.00* (N/A)
Kicking
Field Goal Percentage: 83.3%* (32nd)
Extra Point Percentage: 100% (T-1st)
Touchback Percentage: 81.94%* (3rd)
Specialists
K: Dragan Kesich, fourth-year senior
P: Mark Crawford, fourth-year senior
KOS: Kesich
KR/PR: Quentin Redding, third-year sophomore
The Gophers will have to replace outstanding kicker Matthew Trickett, who didn’t miss a PAT and converted nearly 82% of his field goals last season. The main candidate to replace him is the strong-legged Kesich, who previously (very successfully) handled kickoff duties. Crawford is a returnee but wasn’t particularly effective last year. Redding was eighth nationally in kick return yardage without taking one to the house, helping set up the Gophers’ strong field position numbers.
Glossary: SP+, FEI, and F+ are the three main tempo-adjusted statistical services for college football teams, meant to provide a holistic ranking of a team, offense or defense. Adjusted yards per play measures is the average number of yards gained per snap in non-garbage time. Adjusted points per drive the average number of points scored by your unit per drive in non-garbage time. A havoc play is defined as any tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.