FORDHAM PREVIEW: Ram Right Through The Pain
If we lose this game I'm deleting the newsletter
After last week’s **dispiriting** season-opening loss to Illinois, it has understandably been a ROUGH WEEK in Husker nation. The message boards have been radioactive, the radio talk show callers have been yelling, and the Cornhusker flags all came down from their once-proud front-porch posts.
Want to know what could make everyone feel better? Dropping an absolute hammer on an overmatched FCS team from the Northeast.
As the recap stated, Illinois was just one, first game in a long season. But any path back to respectability or future hope for coach Scott Frost’s tenure comes with a necessary first step of not just taking care of business — but looking GOOD doing it — in the next two games against Fordham and Buffalo. Each also could be a great chance to get young backups some seasoning with game reps in garbage time, something that hasn’t happened much in recent years (because of all the losing and close games).
Just an FYI, this preview is a little lighter than most; Fordham was a tough team to scout. The two pieces of game film I was able to find on the Rams online were a full game from 2019 FILMED BY A FAN IN THE STANDS and a 10-minute highlight reel from their opener last season, and there isn’t a wide database of FCS stats to pull from. Bear with me.
FORDHAM INFO AND STATISTICS:
HEAD COACH: Joe Conlin, fourth season
RECORD: 2-1 (2020 spring season), 4-8 (2019)
SP+ RATING: 95th in FCS (2019)
SP+ NEBRASKA WIN PROBABILITY: 99 percent
SP+ SCORE PREDICTION: 48-5, Nebraska
The Rams were picked to finish second in the Patriot League’s preseason media poll and have the conference’s returning offensive and defensive players of the year. Only a handful of months removed from their “2020 season,” Fordham got in just three games this spring, all against conference opponents. Their offense put up explosive numbers, but their two wins were against teams that finished in the bottom third of the FCS SP+ rankings in the previous year. In 2019, Fordham finished 4-8 and 95th in SP+, but their offense again led the Patriot League in scoring.
Located in the Bronx borough of New York City, Fordham dropped football in 1954 before bringing it back in 1989. Though a generally unsuccessful program, the Rams have produced a couple major coaches recently in Dave Clawson (Wake Forest) and Joe Moorhead (Penn State and Oregon offensive coordinator, Mississippi State head coach).
PERSONNEL:
THE GOOD: The Whole Offense, Linebackers
The Rams were 17th in scoring offense in the FCS last season and have led the Patriot League in passing offense every season since Conlin arrived at the school. Quarterback Tim DeMorat is a four-year starter and was the Patriot League’s offensive player of the year in the shortened 2020 season, and he was picked to repeat in 2021 in the conference’s preseason poll. Running backs Trey Sneed (a Rutgers transfer) and Zach Davis (a COVID opt-out who led the league in rushing in 2019, back for a rare fifth season in a conference that doesn’t allow redshirts) were both picked to the preseason All-League Team, as were receivers Dequece Carter and Fotis Kokosioulis and two offensive lineman. Linebacker Ryan Greenhagen won defensive player of the year honors in the conference last season, but his teammate and fellow linebacker Glenn Cunningham had arguably the better stats.
THE BAD: General Size and Talent, Level of Competition
Fordham’s entire roster has just one defensive lineman over 280 pounds and, as an FCS school primarily recruiting in the Northeast, is going to be at a pretty massive talent disadvantage against any Power 5 school. And while some of their statistics are impressive, the Patriot League is one of the bottom-tier FCS conferences.
THREE BEST PLAYERS:
Tim DeMorat, Quarterback, #17: The 6’4 super-junior from Merritt Island, Florida, completed 72 percent of his passes last year while still ranking 15th in FCS yards per attempt, meaning he’s efficient AND pushing the ball down the field. He has a big, loopy throwing motion, and Fordham asks him to play playground ball quite a bit, which is fun to watch.
Ryan Greenhagen, Linebacker, #47: Had 123 total tackles in 2019, 18.5 of which were for a loss. His numbers in the shortened 2020 were less impressive but still good enough to earn the conference’s defensive player of the year. He’s not the most mobile coverage guy, but he’s a missile when going north-south and is a great tackler. As the weakside linebacker in Fordham’s 4-2-5 scheme, he’s asked to play a hybrid role as a run stuffer, blitzer, and coverage player.
Glenn Cunningham, Linebacker, #26: Cunningham, not Greenhagen, was the Rams’ best statistical linebacker last spring, with 23 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and two interceptions in three games. As the strongside linebacker in the 4-2-5 defense, Cunningham is asked to be a more aggressive run player than Greenhagen.
OFFENSE:
COORDINATOR: Kevin Decker
Decker enters his third season as offensive coordinator with the Rams. His previous coaching stops have all been at the FCS level, and he has just one year of previous coordinating experience at Brown University in 2018. He was also a finalist for the FCS equivalent of the Heisman in 2011 as a quarterback at New Hampshire and has a pretty sick highlight reel set to Bruce Springsteen in which he gets windmilled into the air while scrambling for a touchdown at least four separate times.
SCHEME: Air Raid/Zone Run
The main things to know about the Rams’ offense are that they move fast, love to spread out, and pass a lot.
Fordham played at a fast tempo to an extreme degree, even after negative plays. They exclusively operated out of the shotgun, and were most often in 11 personnel (1 running back and 1 tight end), but also played quite a bit in 20 personnel, a frequent personnel for Air Raid teams because of the linebacker-on-running-back matchups it generates for the defense. Considering Fordham has two all-conference running backs and none of Nebraska’s middle linebackers looked particularly adept in pass coverage last Saturday, maybe look for this frequently.
When they do run the ball, it was almost all zone option runs to take advantage of DeMorat’s decent athleticism and to prevent their line from having to move anyone. I saw Dart option, speed option, and even the two-back triple option in the small bit of film I found. They also will run split zone some. But otherwise, a variety of screens, bubbles, swing passes, and RPOs serve the purpose of their traditional running game. Below is an example of what I mean with one of their “run game” looks:
Here, DeMorat has three options: the give to the running back on inside zone, keeping the ball himself off the edge following the arc block by the tight end, or whipping the ball out to a bubble screen, all depending on how the two read defenders respond:
Below, the edge defender crashes down against the run, so DeMorat pulls and moves on to deciding to keep himself or throw the bubble, based on the Second Read player
The Second Read comes at DeMorat, so he throws the bubble to the slot receiver for an easy gain.
You’ll see a lot of plays like this from Fordham in the run game; they rarely want to go toe-to-toe on the ground with a defense. I don’t mean that as an insult; Nebraska and basically every spread team at every level do the same, because it’s smart. Fordham just does it almost exclusively. Offenses with disadvantages at the line of scrimmage like Fordham want to change the math. On a traditional run play, a quarterback removes himself from the play by handing off to a running back behind a line that’s trying to block every player it can — that’s 10 offensive players on 11 defenders. But by using the quarterback as a run threat and essentially eliminating two defenders by making them “always wrong” by reading them, the math becomes 11 offensive players on nine defenders. When you can’t block them, read them.
In the passing game, it was pretty traditional Air Raid fare: stick, mesh, switch routes, four verticals. All five eligibles out in the pass with man-protection. By design, a lot of their pass concepts are short in-breaking routes that require timing and receivers breaking tackles after the catch. But if the defense covered the initial read well, then they relied a lot on DeMorat cooking out-of-structure on scramble drills. Like any good Air Raid team, they throw to their backs both in and out of structure, and they especially love getting backs isolated on wheel routes. Below is Fordham running the Mesh Wheel (Railroad) concept that NU has already been broken down NUMEROUS TIMES ON THE NEWSLETTER. I just love this play so I’m sharing Fordham’s version, too:
HOW NEBRASKA CAN DEFEND IT:
Because so many of Fordham’s runs have an inside zone element, I expect Nebraska to try to be strong in the A and B gaps. Teams like Iowa State and Washington have had big success against Air Raid teams in recent years by running odd/Tite fronts that cover both B gaps; I don’t think Nebraska will do anything that drastic, but in general look for them to have a strong presence inside the offensive guards through a variety of looks.
One thing I do expect Nebraska to steal from those defenses is to play a lot of zone coverage and eschew blitzing. With its constant mesh/pick routes and short breakers, the Air Raid is deadly against man coverage. Blitzing Air Raid teams is also a losing proposition because the ball comes out of the quarterback’s hand so quickly the rush rarely even has a chance to get home, and pulling people out of coverage to do so is a negative in terms of asset allocation. Expect a lot of Cover 3 from Nebraska on Saturday, and maybe even some “Drop 8” coverages where only three players rush and eight players drop into coverage. For some more in-depth info on Air Raid defense, check out this article on how Washington was able to destroy Mike Leach-era Washington State with a lot of these same techniques.
Personnel-wise, I expect NU to pretty heavily utilize its nickel package against the three and four wide receivers of the 11 and 10 personnel of Fordham. Expect more secondary guys to rotate in, too. This will also be a huge game for the secondary’s tackling — the Rams’ receivers aren’t likely threats to beat NU over the top, but they can make people miss in a phone booth, and on all those short routes, you can’t let 3-yard gains turn into 9- or 10-yard gains or you’ll get paper-cut to death.
DEFENSE:
COORDINATOR: Jameson Zacharias
Zacharias is another young coordinator for the Rams. After a year on staff as the secondary coach, he took over the DC job last year. He previously worked as a position coach at Indiana University — not that one, the one in Pennsylvania — and Central Michigan.
SCHEME: 4-2-5
The “ONLY HAVING ONE GAME ON YOUTUBE FILMED BY A FAN” thing is hurting more for the breakdown of the defense than the offense; I can’t see any of the secondary alignment or coverage. So I’m going to talk about attacking a 4-2-5 more generally than anything I can see specifically for Fordham variant of it (because I can’t see anything).
The 4-2-5 is a defense that rose in popularity in the last decade to combat the rise of spread offenses. Sometimes called “Base Nickel,” it essentially trades your Will (weakside) linebacker for a third safety. Gary Patterson at TCU is considered its YODA, but Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa and even Nebraska — check out the Illinois game breakdown post for a review of NU’s nickel package, which is basically a 4-2-5 — run versions of it at times, so it’s not just some BIG 12 THING. It’s a useful alignment because it allows you to keep six players in the box at all times, while still giving you the flexibility to run two-high safety coverages — the run responsibilities in other alignments like the 3-3-5 can make it difficult to run coverages that require two deep safeties like Cover 2 and Cover 4, a more in-depth discussion for another day — and it lets you be creative with bringing pressure.
With its four down lineman, the 4-2-5 is an “even” front. Defensive linemen will usually be aligned in over and under looks — a nose tackle in a 1 technique (shaded to one side of the center), a defensive tackle in a 3 technique (directly over the guard), and two defensive ends on or outside the offensive tackles. Beyond the nose tackle, whose job is to clog up as many interior gaps as possible, the defensive linemen in the 4-2-5 are athletes trying to penetrate; they aren’t big bodies trying to hold up any offensive linemen and read-and-react, they’re trying to get in the backfield to cause havoc. Of the two linebackers on the field, the strongside linebacker (that’s Cunningham for Fordham) lines up to the strong side of the offensive formation and is primarily an aggressive run player. The other linebacker (Greenhagen) has a more varied and creative role as a blitzer and coverage guy. The Will safety has to be able to cover and play against the run. It looks a little like this:
HOW NEBRASKA CAN ATTACK IT:
The most common strategies for attacking the 4-2-5 often come down to (a) conflicting the aggressiveness of the strongside linebacker or (b) testing the Will safety with the pass.
The 4-2-5 has decreased in popularity recently because of (a) above, as Run-Pass Option (RPO) plays have made the job of the strongside linebacker — an aggressive run player first and foremost — very difficult. The strongside linebacker’s coverage responsibility is typically a tight end or H-back (the “strength” of the offense’s formation is declared by the side the tight end is on, so the strongside linebacker is frequently lining up over the tight end). Teams figured out that you can attack the 4-2-5 strongside linebacker by pairing (or, tagging) your run concepts with RPOs on pass routes over the middle by the tight end. If the strongside linebacker steps up to play the run concept, you throw the pass to the tight end behind him. If the strongside linebacker goes with the tight end’s route, you hand the ball off with numbers in the box. Below is an absolutely diabolical RPO Oklahoma ran against Ohio State’s 4-2-5; watch the linebacker step up to the fullback faking blocking on the run action before the fullback runs right by him for a touchdown. The linebacker commits to the run and can’t get back to the pass responsibilities that suddenly just developed five yards behind him.
To learn more about how RPOs are hurting the 4-2-5 and how defenses are responding, check out this article by Ian Boyd, where I got that OU .gif from.
The other way I expect NU to attack the 4-2-5 will be by putting the Will safety through the passing wringer. As that Will linebacker has to be a strong run player, he’s often more of a hybrid player and not as good of a pass defender as the corners on the other receivers. Don’t be surprised if Samori Toure has a big game out of the slot, as he’ll likely be covered by the Will safety most of the game.
As it’s a four-man front, Nebraska will also attack the open B gap that the over and under fronts give the offense with inside zone and gap-scheme runs like power and counter. So expect a lot of inside runs and not as many running plays to the edges. Last week — after Illinois dropped a SURPRISE EVEN FRONT on the Huskers — Nebraska ran quite a bit of Midline option, a play where you read the 3 technique.
Coverage-wise, about anything can be run from a 4-2-5. But expect a lot of two-high safety looks like Cover 4 and Cover 6 as Fordham tries to stay in front of Nebraska’s receivers. Without more video on what coverages Fordham runs, I don’t have a lot to go on and would just be guessing.
OVERALL THOUGHTS AND SCORE PREDICTION:
Some of Fordham’s raw numbers are impressive, and the Air Raid is always a giant pain to play against. And I wouldn’t be shocked to see DeMorat hit some out of structure stuff or for those linebackers to cause a little havoc — they’re fun and good players. But the Rams put up those numbers in one of the worst conferences in the FCS, and they’re going to be deeply, deeply physically overmatched Saturday at every position. They’ll be playing in a game environment crazier than they’ve ever experienced (LONG LIVE THE ZOMBIE SELLOUT STREAK). I also think you’re going to see a focused, angry NU team wanting to make up for last week’s embarrassing loss. I’ll be slightly more bullish on Nebraska than the computers here:
NEBRASKA 58, FORDHAM 10
NOTES
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GBR