NORTHWESTERN RECAP: Heading Up?
NORTHWESTERN RECAP: Heading Up?
The Newsletter fully supports Jaquez Yant in his goal of stiff-arming every cornerback on earth
It’s fun to win! And win in big, butt-kicking, exciting-play, 260-pound-running-back-ripping-his-way-through-the-secondary fashion! Being excited about the results of your team’s football game is much better than feeling full-on I Think You Should Leave “I DON’T WANT TO BE AROUND ANYMORE” after every single contest. Husker fans haven’t had much of this in recent years. Be excited!
Whether it means anything … well, that’s questionable. I think that was definitely the best game they’ve played in Scott Frost’s four years. Other big wins like 2018 Minnesota or 2019 Northern Illinois and Maryland have been fluky; this was definitely not the same as those two. And it was also seemingly another data point that this is an improved (maybe good?) team that played one bad game to open the year.
But I also remember working on the Northwestern preview and thinking, “How is DUKE getting so many people open against this defense?” so it’s probably also not the sturdiest thing to hang your hat on. We’ll see next week against a good Michigan team. Either way, it feels a lot better than losing.
One note: I only game-charted the snaps the starters played. There just isn’t a lot to be gleaned from charting the backup offense and defense running basic plays and killing clock, and I didn’t want to skew any percentages. I did account for all of the game’s plays in the main statistics section (yards per play, points per drive, Havoc plays, explosive plays, etc.), though, but any stats I’m proprietarily charting (like coverages, play types, blitz percentages, etc.) will be starters only.
OFFENSE
OFFENSIVE GAME CHART:
Google Sheet link HERE
Downloadable PDF link HERE
NEBRASKA GAME STATISTICS:
YARDS PER PLAY: 8.75 Yards Per Play
Pregame Season Average: 6.26 yards per play (NCAA rank: 44th)
Postgame Season Average: 6.69 yards per play (NCAA rank: 24th)
National Median: 5.89 yards per play
POINTS PER DRIVE: 5.09 Points Per Drive
Pregame Season Average: 1.91 points per drive (NCAA rank: 78th)
Postgame Season Average: 2.47 points per drive (NCAA rank: 47th)
National Median: 2.17 points per drive
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS: 10 Explosive Plays (Pass: 4, Run: 6)
Pregame Season Average: 9 explosive plays per game
HAVOC PLAYS ALLOWED: 3 Havoc Plays Allowed (4 percent of plays — season low)
Pregame Season Average: 8.0 Havoc plays allowed per game
NEBRASKA GAME TRENDS (Chart data for starters only):
RUN/PASS: 66% Run, 34% Pass
TEMPO: 27.65% Fast Tempo, 12.77% Check With Me Tempo, 17.04% Slow Tempo, 21.27% No Tempo
PERSONNEL: 68.09% 11 Personnel, 29.79% 12 Personnel, 2.12% 13 Personnel
FORMATION: 42.55% Doubles Formations, 44.68% Trips Formations, 8.51% Quads Formations, 2.12% Two-Back Formations, 0% Empty Formations
MOTION: 57.45% Motion Percentage
PROTECTION: 56.25% 5-Man Protection, 31.25% 7-Man Protection
PASS DATA: 18.75% 0-Step, 81.25% 3-Step, 37.50% Play Action, 6.25% Screen, 6.25% Sprint Out
RPO PERCENTAGE: 17.02% RPO Rate
TRIPLE OPTION PERCENTAGE: 31.91% Triple Option Rate
OVERVIEW:
Now THIS is more like it. The 2021 Northwestern defense is far from a vintage Northwestern defense, and is, in fact, a very bad Northwestern defense, but I think for maybe the first time in coach Scott Frost’s tenure we got the big-play, explosive, ass-kicking offense we expected to see when he arrived from UCF and Oregon. The offense was pretty good his first season in a small-ball, efficient way, and NU has put up yards and points on bad teams since, but they’ve either been accompanied by or in spite of stupid mistakes or seemingly thousands of turnovers. But this, this was a whooping, start to finish. No fluky, weird plays or concerning elements that left you going “That was cool, but …”. This was a more physical and athletic team executing a plan at a high level. It’s been a while since you could say that about a Nebraska offense.
Schematically, Nebraska got up so early that it went pretty conservative pretty quickly, so not a ton to take away here. There was obviously a huge reliance on the triple option — almost 32 percent of the plays run by the starters had a triple option element — which is quickly becoming the staple of this offense. The ’90s are back, folks.
In the passing game, Nebraska relied heavily on either Cover 3 or Cover 4 beaters — outside hitches vs. 3 and clearout drags and deeper route combos vs. 4. Then, obviously, they loaded up for a few deep shots with the play-action crossers concept that they’re running more and more.
In the preview I talked about how I expected Nebraska to run some specific Cover 4 beaters, including some like “Mills” to take advantage of Cover 4’s “lock” rules. Samori Toure’s second long catch was exactly that, an inverted Mills concept, with the inside receiver taking the deep post.
The outside receiver threatens the safety vertically to the middle, which by Cover 4’s rules causes the safety to “lock” onto that receiver in man coverage, before cutting inside on a 10-yard dig route, pulling the safety out of the deep part of the field. Toure threatens the corner vertically and to the outside, forcing another “lock.” With the corner lined up outside Toure, he’s in no position to defend when Toure cuts in on the post, and with no safety deep, quarterback Adrian Martinez has a wide open window to throw to the middle of the field.
Also notice how the receiver at the bottom of the screen runs vertically to force a “lock” on that corner to prevent the corner from being able to sprint deep back across the field and break up the play. That’s good passing design work by Frost and coordinator Matt Lubick. For any NFL fans out there, in a game a couple of weeks ago against the Packers, 49ers coach/playcaller/wunderkind Kyle Shanahan ran a similar passing concept against Cover 4 but didn’t lock the backside corner, and Jaire Alexander was able to run across the field and pick it off:
Scott Frost > > > Kyle Shanahan
For the second straight game we saw almost no Mesh from Nebraska. I’m curious as to whether that’s situational — Northwestern played man coverage on just five of its non-redzone snaps against NU’s starters — or if the staff feels that the play has been solved. Considering it was NU’s go-to pass play last season and the early part of this one, it’s a little odd to only see it once in two games.
This was also a game that saw the return of some offensive tempo. After slowing the pace of the offense way down the past three games to play situational football for the defense, the Huskers used fast or check with me tempo on 40 percent of their plays, the highest since the Fordham game.
IS THE NEW OFFENSIVE LINE BETTER?
The big pregame news was that right tackle Bryce Benhart and left guards Ethan Piper/Trent Hixson, after poor starts to the season, had been replaced by freshman Teddy Prochazka and sophomore Nouredin Nouili and that freshman Turner Corcoran had switched from left tackle to right.
The numbers would say it was a resounding success: The Huskers ran for 427 yards, the starters allowed just two pass pressures, and Nouili and Prochazka were the team’s two highest-graded lineman by PFF. Pretty good!
Northwestern’s defensive line is bad enough that it’s hard for me to get suuuuper excited yet, especially in pass protection. Nebraska’s issues there were bad enough that I don’t really buy two young replacements solving the whole problem. We’ll know more about that after next week; starting a true freshman left tackle against Aidan Hutchinson is, frankly, very terrifying to me.
One thing I did notice was that Nouili and Prochazka did get a better push in the run game than any of Benhart/Piper/Hixson, who were stonewalled consistently in every FBS game this season. Nouili especially seems like a physical blocker with strength who could be a weapon on pulls. Maybe the staff’s thinking is that if the pass protection is equal or similar among those five, at least Nouili and Prochazka are generating positive momentum in the running game? I do think it’s not going to look as rosy as it did Saturday for those two as we get deeper into Big Ten play.
One protection thing I did want to point out was, after almost exclusively letting its line get whooped in five-man protections all season, Nebraska did show some heavier pass protection looks Saturday. They used five-man protection on 56 percent of their pass plays, and kept seven blockers in on 31.25 percent of snaps. Doesn’t seem like a lot, but that’s the most protection they’ve kept in all season. Both long completions to Samori Toure were protected with seven blockers. Weird how you can throw deep when there isn’t a free rusher running straight at your quarterback!
They also ran a sprint out pass and had a play in quick game where the linemen cut block, things that can help a struggling offensive line.
LARGE ADULT RUNNING BACK
YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT
YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT YANT
A COOL PLAY:
You get two cool offensive plays this week because they were related:
Gun Doubles Tight Y Wing WR Flex Stack Weak -
Zone Triple Option Arc
Nebraska killed the Wildcats with triple option looks all game, but a slight variation/fake on how they usually run the play sprung Zavier Betts’ long touchdown run to open the second half.
Nebraska has shown two variations of the triple option play this season: a straight “Zone” version and a “Split Zone” version.
Zone is just standard zone blocking by the linemen and H-back, straight ahead. But on Split Zone, the offensive line will block along the flow of the play, while the H-back will come across the backside of the formation and block the end man on the line of scrimmage (called a “Slice” block), while the quarterback will usually read another edge player or linebacker. It’s a great concept for creating cutback lanes. A standard split zone play (non-read) looks like this on paper:
Here’s what Nebraska’s version of the Split Zone Triple Option looks like in action. Look at how the line goes left and H-back Austin Allen goes right and cleans up the last defender on the line of scrimmage on the Slice:
That’s the base version of the play. Betts’ touchdown looks exactly like this at the start. The line slides right while H-back Travis Vokolek sprints left to seemingly make a Slice block … and then, instead, gives a little head fake and sprints up the field to lead block, eventually crushing the cornerback, while Martinez reads the end man on the line of scrimmage:
What Vokolek is doing here is called an “Arc” block; it’s just a little curveball off how NU typically runs the play. Another added element is that Allen, a tight end, is lined up at X receiver, and leaves the corner to crack down on the safety.
Northwestern’s defense sucks inside on dive read of the option, and then the edge defender, expecting the Slice block, finds himself wildly out of position and now being read. Betts beats the read man and Northwestern’s weakside linebacker to the edge and finds himself with an Allen-Vokolek convoy down the field. After the initial dive read by the quarterback, I think this version of the play might also completely ignore the second read and be an auto-pitch by the quarterback. They ran this exact same motion, formation and play with Omar Manning on the first play of their third drive — it gained only one yard — but it didn’t look like Martinez was reading a second read on that play either.
Pistol Unbalanced Quads Twin TE Wing Slot Fly — Split Zone
Another cool curveball Nebraska ran off split zone actually came earlier in the game on the final touchdown of the first half. Nebraska has an unbalanced formation here with four total eligibles to the right, including two tight ends in Allen and Vokolek. The line and Allen and Vokolek zone block to the left, and receiver Oliver Martin, who came in Fly motion across the formation presnap, goes to the right on the Slice block. This gives them six down blockers for the zone element of the play and still lets them get have the Slice block element of the play on the backside. Running back Rahmir Johnson also makes a great jump cut here off Martin’s block. Frost said they wanted to be better in the redzone against last year after last year’s debacle against the Wildcats, and they were.
DEFENSE
DEFENSIVE GAME CHART:
Google Sheet link HERE
Downloadable PDF link HERE
GAME STATISTICS:
YARDS PER PLAY ALLOWED: 4.30 Yards Allowed Per Play
Pregame Season Average: 4.97 yards allowed per play (NCAA rank: 48th)
Postgame Season Average: 4.88 yards allowed per play (NCAA rank: 37th)
National Median: 5.34 yards allowed per play
POINTS PER DRIVE ALLOWED: 0.63 Points Allowed Per Drive
Pregame Season Average: 1.36 points allowed per drive (NCAA rank: 19th)
Postgame Season Average: 1.28 points allowed per drive (NCAA rank: 12th)
National Median: 2.20 points allowed per drive
HAVOC PLAYS: 11 Havoc Plays (21.56 percent of plays)
Pregame Season Average: 11.6 Havoc plays per game
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS ALLOWED: 4 Explosive Plays Allowed (Pass: 4, Run: 0)
Pregame Season Average: 5.8 explosive plays allowed per game
NEBRASKA GAME TRENDS (Chart data for starters only)
RUN/PASS: 32.35% Run, 67.65% Pass
PERSONNEL: 84.31% 2-5 Nickel, 9.80% Base, 7.84% Dime
BOX NUMBER: 50.98% Standard Box, 29.41% Light Box, 19.62% Heavy Box
SAFETIES HIGH: 49.01% 2-High, 41.19% 1-High, 5.88% 0-High, 3.92% 3-High
COVERAGE: 58.82% Cover 3, 19.60% Cover 4, 13.72% Cover 1, 5.88% Cover 0
PASS RUSH: 60.78% 4-Man Rush, 27.45% 5-Man Rush, 7.85% 6-Man Rush, 3.92% 3-Man Rush
OVERVIEW:
The narrative after the game was that Nebraska had one of its shakier defensive efforts, though that really doesn’t hold up on closer inspection. It was really just three big plays by the Wildcats on their second and third drives. Even with those plays included, NU allowed below its season average in yards per play, and with those three plays excluded they allowed 3.72 yards per play, with 1.5 quarters of garbage time. That’s still elite stuff. Nebraska allowed just one other explosive play after that and made 11 Havoc plays. After Saturday the Blackshirts are now up to 12th nationally in points allowed per drive.
Scheme-wise, Northwestern came out throwing short against NU’s deep zone on quick passes. A smart plan against the way Nebraska likes to play with the deep shell and with a new quarterback starting. They also didn’t even attempt to run the ball on Nebraska’s front, throwing 72 percent of the time with the starters in. Considering the Wildcats’ running game was considered their strength heading into Saturday, that was a pretty surprising move. Obviously it was somewhat dictated by game flow, but I also think they weren’t really interested in testing NU’s front — they opened the game with six straight passes when the score was still 7-0.
As with the offense, Nebraska’s D really got pretty vanilla pretty quickly after getting staked to a lead, so there’s not a ton to take away here. With the big cushion, coordinator Erik Chinander switched to way more deep zone than normal — Nebraska ran just 10 snaps of man coverage with the starters in, a season-low 19 percent, and that’s including several goalline snaps that are skewing that number.
DIME TIME:
For the first instance this year, Nebraska played a bit of Dime personnel in long yardage situations. In previous games, they’ve been content to sit in their Nickel personnel in long yardage, even if the offense was bringing in four or five wide receivers. But with the recent good play of corner Braxton Clark (during Cam Taylor-Britt’s injury vs. Oklahoma) and safety Myles Farmer, it would appear those two have earned the staff’s trust. Both have played as reserves or in relief in previous games, but this was the first time they’ve seen extended time on the field with starters in a package.
NU showed a Dime look with Clark at outside corner and Taylor-Britt moved into the slot twice, on the third and 12 at the end of the first drive and on the fourth and 9 just before halftime (more on that in the next section). It showed a three-safety Dime look with Farmer on the third and 17 at the end of the second drive and the third and 20 near the end of the fifth drive.
A COOL PLAY:
Nebraska showed a new pressure package look on two of the biggest defensive moments of the game (while it was still a game). On the third and 12 that got them off the field on the first drive, Nebraska came out in the below alignment. It seems like a pretty basic alignment until you look more closely at the personnel:
Northwestern substitutes before this play, allowing Nebraska to get into a more designer look for the third down. Nebraska takes one of the linebackers off the field in its 2-5 Nickel personnel and brings Clark on as an outside corner to get in Dime personnel. That moves Taylor-Britt inside to the slot, with Domann in his usual slot position, as well (Taylor-Britt and Domann are the purple arrows in the diagram above). It takes its defensive linemen and positions one at a 5 technique (outside the tackles) to the top of the screen and one at a Wide 9 technique (outside where the tight end would be) at the bottom of the screen (yellow arrows).
At linebacker is where this look gets tricky. Caleb Tannor, an outside linebacker, and Luke Reimer, the middle linebacker who stayed on the field, both mug up to the line of scrimmage over top the guards, making it look like they’re blitzing (purple arrows). It takes Garrett Nelson, an outside linebacker, and puts him as a down lineman at a 0 technique; where the nose tackle normally lines up (light blue circle). Now watch what happens:
The defensive linemen lined up wide both blitz — nothing weird there. But all of the linebackers: Tannor, Reimer, and Nelson (playing as the nose tackle, remember?) all drop into coverage, while Domann and Taylor-Britt both replace them by blitzing off the edges. This was a tricky alignment to diagnose initially with the two linebackers mugged, but with the slot pressure replacement no one expected, the running back and line have no idea who to block here, and it leads to a sack.
Later in the game, Nebraska busted out this same alignment on the fourth and 9 near midfield. Instead of running a designer/bluff pressure, Chinander just blitzed everyone and brought Tannor around from the inside on a big loop. The quarterback faced immediate pressure and had to throw the ball before he wanted, turning it over on downs.
Nebraska’s base defense was already playing very well on early downs, but the added wrinkles of the above-discussed Dime and looks such as this show they’re getting more creative and comfortable with situational/curveball stuff on money downs. A pretty scary idea if you’re a Big Ten offensive coordinator.
Thanks as always for reading! If you’re subscribed, a Michigan preview will be in your inbox Friday morning. If you’re not subscribed, why not?