PURDUE PREVIEW: Let's Get The Train Rollin' Again
Huskers come out their bye week needing to get back on track to salvage a season
INFO AND STATISTICS:
COACH: Jeff Brohm, fifth season (23-28 at Purdue, 53-38 overall)
2021 RECORD: 4-3 (2-2 Big Ten)
POLL RANKINGS: Not ranked
SP+ / FPI / F+ OVERALL RATING: 40th SP+ / 43rd FPI / 38th F+ (Nebraska: 20th SP+ / 21st FPI / 24th F+)
VEGAS SPREAD (as of Wednesday, October 27): Nebraska -7.5, 52.0 Over/Under
SP+ NEBRASKA WIN PROBABILITY: 67%
SP+ SCORE PREDICTION: Nebraska 30-22
Brohm is a passing-game guru who came to West Lafayette from Western Kentucky; his Hilltopper quarterbacks threw for an average of 4,479 yards in his four seasons. He likes to wing that ball all around the field, and Purdue has typically finished near the top of the conference in passing yards under Brohm. But the Boilermakers struggle to run the ball with any consistency, and, after a hot start to Brohm’s tenure that netted him a seven-year contract extension, the overall offense has finished 49th nationally by SP+ offensive efficiency on average over the last three seasons to go along with some pretty buff defenses. Their defense has improved significantly this year, though, and is way outpacing their offense.
PERSONNEL:
BEST PLAYERS:
David Bell, Wide Receiver, #3: Bell is not a speed demon or particularly good at getting separation but is elite at outmuscling defenders to win balls down the field. He has a career catch rate of 47.4% on ALL contested passes thrown his way, significantly better than anyone else in the Power 5. He also absolutely destroys press and mug coverage; the only people historically with better numbers against tight coverage per PFF through their freshman and sophomore seasons are Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith. Pretty good!
George Karlaftis, Defensive End, #5: One of the highest-rated recruits in school history and a former Freshman All American, the junior missed most of last season with injury and a COVID-19 case but is back to wrecking games this year with 32 total pass-rush pressures. At 275 pounds, he’s more of a power/bullrush guy than some of the speed demons who have given NU’s tackles trouble, but he’ll be a challenging matchup either way.
Branson Deen, Defensive Tackle, #58: The junior is another skilled pass rusher on the Boilermakers’ line and is also good against the run. He’s the team’s sack leader while mostly playing as a 3 technique.
COOLEST NAME ON THE ROSTER:
OC Brothers, Linebacker, #20
OC, a sophomore, has not played much in his young Purdue career, but you have to imagine that’s going to change once his coaches realize they have a player named “OC BROTHERS” on the roster.
WHEN PURDUE’S OFFENSE IS ON THE FIELD:
STATISTICS:
UNIT SP+ / FPI / F+ RATINGS:
PURDUE OFFENSE: 67th SP+ / 66th FPI / 68th F+
NU DEFENSE: 24th SP+ / 21st FPI / 21st F+
YARDS PER PLAY (national rank in parentheses):
PURDUE OFFENSE: 5.25 yards per play (92nd)
NU DEFENSE: 5.11 yards allowed per play (42nd)
POINTS PER DRIVE (national rank in parentheses):
PURDUE OFFENSE: 1.89 points per drive (91st)
NU DEFENSE: 1.68 points allowed per drive (27th)
RUSHING:
PURDUE OFFENSE: 73.86 rushing yards per game (14th in Big Ten, 129th nationally)
NU DEFENSE: 139.88 rushing yards allowed per game (8th in Big Ten, 53rd nationally)
PASSING:
PURDUE OFFENSE: 317.7 passing yards per game (2nd in Big Ten, 12th nationally)
NU DEFENSE: 208.5 passing yards allowed per game (6th in Big Ten, 43rd nationally)
20+ YARD GAINS PER GAME:
PURDUE OFFENSE: 3.86 20+ yard gains per game (0.57 rush, 3.29 pass)
NU DEFENSE: 3.88 20+ yard gains allowed per game (1.38 rush, 2.50 pass)
HAVOC PLAYS PER GAME (tackles for loss, sacks, passes defensed, interceptions, fumbles forced):
PURDUE OFFENSE: 10.57 Havoc plays allowed per game
NU DEFENSE: 10.75 Havoc plays per game
COORDINATOR:
Brian Brohm and JaMarcus Shephard, Fifth and Fourth Seasons
Brian Brohm is Jeff’s brother, a former famous Louisville quarterback whom you might remember from that absolute banger of a 2006 game against Rutgers. Shephard got his start with Jeff Brohm at Western Kentucky and followed him here. But Jeff Brohm is the playcaller and really is the guy running the show here.
SCHEME
Primary Formations/Style: Spread/Air Raid with some pro-style, under-center elements mixed in
Primary Personnel: 11 and 12 personnel
Tempo: Only situationally
Motion: Heavy use
Run Concepts: Multiple
Pass Concepts: Slants, curls, and drags — quick hitters
Standard Downs: Pass-heavy, screens, various run concepts
Third Downs: Get the ball to David Bell
Purdue loves to throw — they finished 3rd in pass play percentage last season, meaning they threw the ball more frequently than most Air Raid teams. They don’t really push the ball down the field much, preferring a variety of slants, drags, curls, quick outs, angle routes and screens close to the line of scrimmage. That works pretty well when you have Rondale Moore (who shattered the Power 5 record for broken tackles after a reception in 2018) but not as well when you give those touches to Bell (who prefers to do his damage in contested situations down the field). Receiver Milton Wright and tight end Payne Durham are also nice weapons in the passing game, but the whole plane is really built out of “Get David Bell The Ball.” To my knowledge, NU hasn’t consistently doubled any receiver so far this year; but this might be the week to change that.
But the counterpart is they are also absolutely godawful at running the ball. And not for lack of trying! Purdue runs the ball pretty consistently on standard downs despite having an offensive line that I watched get pushed backwards into the backfield multiple separate times against Notre Dame! They do a lot of different stuff in the run game; the most consistent runs seemed to be outside zone, split zone and a little bit of gap scheme power and counter.
Formationally, Purdue is pretty multiple, getting in the gun when they want to do the Air Raid/quick pass stuff and under center when they get into the more pro-style concepts. Their use of condensed receivers splits and presnap motion was also popping up in their film quite a bit; they’re probably the only team in the conference who uses those two things as much as NU.
Another storyline to watch with Purdue’s offense is that running back Zander Horvath — low-key one of the best pass-catching backs in the nation — may try to play Saturday with a BROKEN LEG. He’s gonna do this, for Madden (not linking to that video because it is full of expletives).
WHEN PURDUE’S DEFENSE IS ON THE FIELD:
STATISTICS:
UNIT SP+ / FPI / F+ RATING:
PURDUE DEFENSE: 23rd SP+ / 19th FPI / 20th F+
NU OFFENSE: 26th SP+ / 31st FPI / 26th F+
YARDS PER PLAY (national rank in parentheses):
PURDUE DEFENSE: 4.87 yards allowed per play (22nd)
NU OFFENSE: 6.66 yards per play (21st)
POINTS PER DRIVE (national rank in parentheses):
PURDUE DEFENSE: 1.50 points allowed per drive (14th)
NU OFFENSE: 2.35 points per drive (55th)
RUSHING:
PURDUE DEFENSE: 139.71 rushing yards allowed per game (9th in Big Ten, 54th nationally)
NU OFFENSE: 211.13 rushing yards per game (3rd in Big Ten, 23rd nationally)
PASSING:
PURDUE DEFENSE: 160.4 passing yards allowed per game (1st in Big Ten, 5th nationally)
NU OFFENSE: 266.4 passing yards per game (4th in Big Ten, 36th nationally)
HAVOC PLAYS PER GAME (cumulative tackles for loss, sacks, passes defensed, interceptions, fumbles forced):
PURDUE DEFENSE: 11.71 Havoc plays per game
NU OFFENSE: 7.48 Havoc plays allowed per game
20+ YARD GAINS PER GAME:
PURDUE DEFENSE: 3.14 20+ yard gains allowed (1.0 rush, 2.14 pass) per game
NU OFFENSE: 6.51 20+ yard gains (1.88 rush, 4.63 pass) per game
COORDINATOR:
Brad Lambert, Ron English and Mark Hagen, First Season
After consecutive seasons of firing defensive coordinators, Brohm cleaned house on his defensive staff and hired all three of Lambert, English and Hagen to try a multi-coach structure, and it’s worked! After finishing 82nd and 60th in SP+ defensive efficiency in 2019 and 2020, the Hydra Defensive Coordinator strategy has Purdue fielding an objectively *pretty good* defense. The big change has been cranking the aggressiveness and blitzing dial up to 100.
SCHEME:
Standard Downs: 3-4 Even Front
Primary Coverages: Cover 3, Cover 1
Blitz Frequency: Heavy
Third Down: Funky Fronts, Big Blitzes in third and medium, Light Rush Drop 8 in longer downs
The Boilermakers’ defensive structure is not dissimilar to the hyper-aggressive units Nebraska previously played against Michigan State and Michigan. They want to make things confusing presnap, bring a lot of pressure and hope the quarterback doesn’t process all of it fast enough to make their exposed, single-high safety coverage structure pay. They HAVE caused a ton of havoc so far this year but surprisingly haven’t been hurt by the corresponding big passing plays you’d think they’d be likely give up playing that way. When you see that their offensive schedule has been Oregon State, UConn, Notre Dame, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin, it makes more sense. It’s not even big-ups to NU to say that the Huskers will be far-and-away the best offense Purdue has faced this season.
Karlaftis almost demands a double team on his own, which makes the extra bodies they bring even trickier to defend. Nebraska has used more bodies in pass protection since that dreadful seven-sack MSU game, so look for that to continue and look for them to use the formations with a tight end in the backfield or on the wing in a “Sniffer” position to generate some chip help, especially to Karlaftis’ side:
They had a lot of success using this against Michigan to slow their pass rushers down (especially a double-wing formation with the tight end and running back condensed in to chip help).
The sort of “moveable chess piece” on the Purdue unit is hybrid safety/linebacker Jalen Graham, #6. Purdue will line him up all over, in the slot, off the line of scrimmage or as a standup pass rusher. He’s kind of their version of JoJo Domann (though not nearly as good as our homie JoJo; we love you JoJo). If you’re looking for a tell on what Purdue is going to run, Graham’s probably a good guy to watch.
Coverage-wise, Purdue’s heavy blitz rate almost dictates that they play a high percentage of Cover 1 and Cover 3. Nebraska should be used to this by now, with most teams running higher percentages of these two coverages against them to defend the QB run and option elements of NU’s offense. This will be a big game for Nebraska’s man-beating concepts like Mesh and their various other pick plays, which also means a big game for Adrian Martinez hitting those throws — something that hasn’t always happened. The Boilermakers do like to disguise a decent amount with their safeties, starting in two high safety shells and rotating the extra man down into the box.
Purdue is vulnerable against the run and lacks a ton of top-end strength dudes, but it does have a generally athletic unit that flies to the ball. I think it would behoove NU to try to get something going on the ground.
SCORE PREDICTION:
Nebraska 30, Purdue 14
I’m making this prediction under the assumption NU is still invested in this season and playing for something. I think that will be the case based on what we’ve heard and the general vibe of the team, but you also can only take so many punches to the gut before you need see some proof of concept to keep believing your coaches. I don’t know where that point lies, but hopefully NU hasn’t reached it yet.
But assuming the Huskers are still bought in, I think Nebraska will win this game semi-comfortably. Purdue’s defense does have some strong traits, but it also hasn’t really played an even decent offense so far this season and is due for an exposure that sort of got underway last week in giving up 30 points to Wisconsin. If Nebraska’s line can hold up decently in protection on the offensive side of the ball, and Martinez stays calm under the almost-assured he’s going to face and doesn’t go into “Throw Wobblers Off My Back Foot” mode, I think NU will put up more points than people expect, and a one-dimensional Boilermaker offensive attack will eventually fizzle out. GBR.