Does This Ever Work? Part 3 And Conclusions
Does This Ever Work? Part 3 And Conclusions
The final batch of five-star quarterbacks before Nebraska gets to see its own
This is Part 3 in a three-part series examining the success of five-star quarterbacks who started in their freshmen seasons. The other two parts can be found here: Part 1 and Part 2.
Welcome back to Black 41 Flash Reverse. This is Part 3 in a series looking at the success or failure of starting true freshmen five-star quarterbacks in recent major-conference college football ahead of Dylan Raiola’s debut Saturday in the Nebraska spring game. Part 1 features a general methodology and the 2009-14 recruiting classes. Part 2 looks into the 2015 to 2018 recruiting classes. Part 3 will cover the 2019 to 2023 classes and feature some general conclusions and takeaways I’ve noticed for what made these players successful or unsuccessful.
Let’s get back to it.
2019
Bo Nix, Auburn/Oregon
Recruiting Profile
Nix was split in the rankings, with 24/7 putting him as a four star and No. 62 player in his class, and Rivals giving him the fifth star and putting him 29th in the class. He was the No. 3 quarterback in the positional rankings behind Spencer Rattler at OU and Jayden Daniels at Arizona State in 24/7’s rankings and behind only Rattler per Rivals.1 Nix is the son of a former Auburn quarterback and took his only visit to the Tigers, committing over a year before signing day. He enrolled early and participated in spring practice.
Nix as a recuit was described as a lesser talent than a majority of the five stars on this list, being viewed as second- or third-round NFL pick. His scouting evaluation praised his accuracy and creativity as a playmaker and listed him as a good athlete, but his arm is described as “not overpowering.” This year, 24/7 starts doing comps to past NFL or college players; Nix’s comp was Trace McSorley of Penn State.
Freshman Performance
Following Jarrett Stidham’s graduation, Auburn had an opening at the quarterback spot entering the 2019 offseason. A competition played out between Nix and incumbent Joey Gatewood throughout spring and fall camp, with Nix passing Gatewood in the final couple weeks before the season’s first game against Oregon. Nix was named Auburn’s first true freshman to start an opener since Travis Tidwell in 1946.
Nix’s first performance, against the No. 11 Ducks, was a bit of a mess, as he completed just 13 of 30 passes with two interceptions. But he would also throw the game-winning touchdown on a 26-yard post-up ball with 16 seconds left, so there was some excitement about his play.
The rest of his freshman year was up and down. He was more efficient in his next three games, but Auburn kept his attempts limited in big wins over Tulane and Kent State and a close win over ranked Texas A&M. He’d play arguably his best game of the year the next week against Mississippi State, completing 16 of 21 passes for 335 yards and two touchdowns as Auburn reached 5-0 and No. 8 in the polls.
He’d have a disaster game the next week, completing just 11 passes in 33 dropbacks against No. 10 Florida in the Swamp, with three interceptions (it could have been worse, as he was credited with six turnover-worthy plays per PFF) as Auburn took its first loss. The Tigers dialed back his attempts the next week against Arkansas — and he responded with a strong 17-of-21 performance and three scores against Arkansas — then he was bad again on the road against No. 2 LSU, completing only 15 passes in 40 attempts. The Tigers lost by only three to that Joe Burrow LSU team in Baton Rouge, so a better game from Nix might have put them over the top. He’d also play a bad game against No. 5 Alabama later that year, completing 15 passes in 33 dropbacks, though Auburn would win that one in a shootout.
He had a couple of nice performances down the stretch, though, going 30 of 44 for 340 yards in a win over Ole Miss and 30 of 50 in a close loss to No. 5 Georgia.
Overall, Nix’s freshman year was largely pretty inefficient (with just a 67.7% adjusted completion percentage) and he struggled with turnovers, ranking near the bottom in the country in turnover-worthy play percentage as a passer and fumbling five times. But he would still throw for over 2,500 yards and 16 touchdowns, and he would add 429 non-sack rushing yards with seven more scores. He would also be named SEC Freshman of the Year. And it’s not fair to discuss his freshman play without mentioning Auburn’s gauntlet of a schedule: The Tigers that year would face the teams that finished No. 2 (LSU), No. 3 (Alabama), No. 5 (Georgia), No. 7 (Florida), No. 13 (Minnesota), No. 15 (Oregon), and No. 21 (Texas A&M) in SP+ team ranking that season. Nix would lead them to a 9-4 record starting every game; I’m not much of a believer in “QB WINZ” discourse, but that’s a feather in his cap.
Offensive Environment/Supporting Cast
Auburn’s 2019 weapons were just OK, with a couple decent receivers in Seth Williams and Anthony Schwartz who would go on to be late-round NFL draft picks and a decent college wideout in Eli Stove. Auburn was also a decent rushing team, finishing 48th nationally in efficiency that year.
But Nix’s line was great: Tackle Jack Driscoll and Marquell Harrell finished 12th and 15th, respectively, among all qualifying Power 5 linemen nationally in pass blocking grade, and two of the other starters finished 51st and 55th. Driscoll would go on to be selected in the fourth round of the NFL draft and just signed a second contract with the Miami Dolphins this month.
Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn had been known for his shotgun, veer-option heavy attack that made Cam Newton famous in 2010, but by 2019 he had sought a more traditional approach, and he poached Memphis offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham in the 2019 offseason to run his offense (though Malzahn still called the plays?) Dillingham’s system, developed under Mike Norvell, is an extremely heavy RPO system that throws tons of screens and flat routes off single reads. NU’s philosophy under Marucs Satterfield is likely to be much more difficult on a young QB’s decision making than what Nix was operating.
Future Performance
Nix’s performance with the Tigers would never really reach the lofty expectations set for him as a legacy five-star recruit, but he also didn’t have the most stable situation. After one season at Auburn, Dillingham would leave his (non-playcalling) OC position and re-join Norvell’s staff in the same role as Norvell moved to Florida State. Malzahn replaced him with Chad Morris, going back to the Texas high school veer attack. And four of Auburn’s starters along its stellar line would graduate, plus its defense would lose a ton of pieces. Then about three months later, the pandemic started. Not the best environment for developing a young quarterback.
Nix’s statistical profile in 2020 was virtually identical to his play as a freshman, but with Auburn’s supporting cast down the team would go 6-5, leading to Malzahn’s firing. He would be replaced by Bryan Harsin, who brought in pro-style motion and timing offense from Boise State, which wasn’t really a fit at all for Nix’s game. Nix would quietly make some decent improvements in his advanced statistical profile, raising his adjusted completion percentage and downfield passing success significantly, but he would be injured late in the year and miss the final two games. He hit the transfer portal shortly after, describing his year with Harsin as “miserable.”
A non-commodity in the portal, Nix would quietly commit to Oregon, reuniting with Dillingham under new head coach Dan Lanning. Back in Dillingham’s single-read, screen-and-run RPO system and with a stacked supporting cast, Nix would put up two seasons of monster numbers, throwing for 3,593 yards with 29 touchdowns and running for 510 and 14 more scores as a fourth-year senior, then setting the FCS completion percentage record this season in his COVID year at 77.4%,2 with 4,454 yards and 45 touchdowns with only five turnover-worthy plays in 499 dropbacks.
Nix was thought to be a Day 2 NFL draft prospect for his non-elite physical talent, mechanical concerns, and the simplicity of his college offense, but he was surprisingly taken 12th overall last night by the Denver Broncos.
Takeaways
There are some pretty obvious similarities between Nix and Raiola in the hype/program savior vibes that have surrounded both, but I think Nix is also a good cautionary tale for Nebraska of situation and supporting cast. Nix’s first season at Auburn wasn’t bad; then they took away his OC and offensive line in Year 2 and his head coach in Year 3. Stability year-to-year is very important for these guys, something Nebraska could learn from.
Jayden Daniels, Arizona State/LSU
Recruiting Profile
Neither service had Daniels as a five star, but both had him in the top 60 players in the class (No. 35 per 24/7 and No. 57 per Rivals), and he was the No. 2 overall quarterback per 24/7. He initially had a middling offer list for much of his recruitment but took off as a prospect late in the process, eventually landing scholarships from Alabama, Tennessee, and Florida. He appeared determined to stay on the West Coast, though, visiting California, UCLA, and Utah initially, but he took a late November visit to Arizona State and committed to second-year coach Herm Edwards a few days before the early signing deadline. He enrolled early and participated in spring practice.
Daniels’ skillset in his profile is described as very different from Raiola’s, as a “legitimate run threat” who can “rip off chunk runs” but he also is praised for his arm talent. Daniels is also much slighter physically as a recruit. He was considered a second-round NFL talent and compared to Deshaun Watson.
Freshman Performance
Edwards touted Daniels as a “generational recruit” in a news conference after his arrival, so the job looked to be Daniels’ from the jump, even as Edwards insisted on a “competition” with fellow true freshman three-star Joey Yellen. Daniels would predictably win the job near the end of camp and become the first-ever ASU true freshman quarterback to start an opener the next week against Kent State.
He’d set off some fireworks right away. In two initial starts against Kent State and Sacramento State, Daniels completed over 62% of his passes for 284 and 304 yards on 11.8 and 11.2 yards per attempt. Not great competition, but fantastic stuff.
He would struggle the next week in a 10-7 win against a ranked Michigan State team and would have a 4-of-18 performance a few weeks later against No. 13 Utah, but the rest of his first year was largely just him going nuts. In a Week 4 shootout loss to Colorado, he’d throw for 345 yards and two scores on a 73% expected completion percentage with an average depth of target of 12.1 yards. He’d top 300 yards again in a pair of high-scoring games against Washington State and Oregon State, throwing three touchdowns in each of the games with no interceptions (and only one turnover-worthy play combined). He also turned in a 20-of-29 day for three more scores in a win over UCLA.
But his best game would come late in the year against No. 6 Oregon. The Ducks were in prime position for a playoff berth, but Daniels would almost single-handedly derail that, throwing for 408 yards and three scores on a 79.3% expected completion percentage. He would clearly outplay Oregon starter Justin Herbert. Two weeks later, he’d play well in a bowl win over Florida State and looked like the next star of college football.
Overall, Daniels would throw for 2,943 yards on a 72.4% expected completion percentage, with 17 passing touchdowns and two picks over 12 games (though on a pretty lucky 11 turnover-worthy plays). From a pure-passing perspective, it’s one of the better statistical profiles of anyone on this list, and amongst the highest usage; ASU let him drop back 441 times, fourth most of any freshman QB I evaluated here, behind Josh Rosen, Trevor Lawrence and Sam Howell. He was also an effective scrambler, turning 67 scramble attempts into 468 yards. Daniels did struggle mightily with sacks and pressure, taking 35 sacks on the year and turning 24% of his pressures into sacks.
Offensive Environment/Supporting Cast
ASU might not be considered an elite program but this team quietly had some dudes at the skill positions. Brandon Aiyuk, who had transferred in a year before from a junior college, would go for 1,192 yards and eight touchdowns, as he and Daniels immediately formed one of the best deep threats in college football. Aiyuk would be a first-round pick that offseason and become an NFL All-Pro. No. 2 receiver Frank Darby also topped 600 yards that season and would go on to be an NFL draft pick in 2021. True freshman Ricky Pearsall — who would transfer to Florida and was picked 31st by San Francisco in last night’s NFL draft first round — worked out of the slot. Tailback Eno Benjamin also went for over 1,000 rushing yards and has had an NFL career.
But at least part of Daniels’s high sack totals can be attributed to this ASU line. Guard Dohnovan West and Steven Miller graded out as solid players in pass pro, but the three other starters surrendered a combined 67 pressures. The 124 pressures surrendered by the ASU line is among the most surrendered by anyone on this list.
Edwards was decidedly a defense-first CEO coach and didn’t have much to do with the scheme of ASU’s offense, handing the duties to Rob Likens. Likens ran one of the pretty generic, quick-throw Air Raid offshoots that was popular in the Big 12 and Pac-12 around this time. His previous stop as a coordinator at Kansas was very unsuccessful, though he wasn’t working with good personnel. He hasn’t been a solo coordinator since leaving ASU after the 2019 season, and while the scheme was fairly quarterback friendly, Likens was not a well-regarded offensive mind who was helping his QB out a lot.
Future Performance
Daniels was undeniably electric as a freshman, but the pandemic would strike a few months later and derail his development and ASU career. He would also lose Aiyuk to the NFL and Darby to an injury, and ASU would not replace them with competent weapons; his leading receiver each of the next two years would be tailback Rachaad White. ASU also changed coordinators ahead of 2020, switching to Zak Hill.
Daniels’ underlying numbers would fall off majorly in the pandemic year, with his expected completion percentage dropping a whole 10 percentage points as the Pac-12 started its season in November and only played seven games. But he would mostly bounce back as a junior, putting up very strong underlying numbers, though he faced some luck regression with interceptions (throwing 10 picks) and only averaged 183 passing yards a game as the roster around him and Edwards’ ASU tenure nosedived.3 Fleeing the sinking ship, Daniels hit the transfer portal and was smartly snapped up by LSU and recently hired coach Brian Kelly.
With the Tigers, Daniels would bring his elite play to an actual good team. Throwing to two future first-round picks at wide reciever and behind a good line, Daniels would complete an adjusted 77% of his passes on an 8.2 average depth of target in 2021 while rushing for 885 yards, then he significantly improved all of those numbers as he threw 40 touchdowns and delivered one of the best downfield passing seasons in college football history in 2023 to win the Heisman and every other major award. He went second in the NFL draft last night to Washington.4
Takeaways
Back to back, we have examples of talented passers who came to non-elite programs that then didn’t prioritize creating a stable or sensible offensive infrastructure around them, causing them to transfer. If you listen to any of Matt Rhule’s rhetoric about his offensive philosophy this offseason, that should be at least mildly concerning to NU fans.
Sam Howell, North Carolina
Recruiting Profile
Howell another of the high four stars I’ve included in this list for situational similarities. Howell came in just outside the top 100 players nationally in both services, but he was an Elite 11 passing camp finalist and also made the All-American Bowl. He was the No. 3 quarterback in the class per 24/7 and sixth per Rivals. Howell was long viewed as a Florida State lock throughout the recruiting process before he made a dramatic signing-day decision to choose the Tar Heels and recently hired coach Mack Brown. He enrolled early a month later and participated in spring practice.
His recruiting profile describes him in some similar terms to Raiola, with a stocky build, ability to run, creativity, and ability to make off-platform throws, though he’s described as having lesser physical arm talent. He was viewed as a second- or third-round NFL talent and compared to Baker Mayfield.
Freshman Performance
North Carolina had gone 3-9 the previous year under Larry Fedora with an anemic offense, so the Tar Heels were looking for an overhaul when Howell arrived on campus. He engaged in a three-way fall camp battle with incumbent backups Cade Fortin and Jace Ruder, but Brown gave Howell the nod about two weeks before the first game. Howell would become the first-ever true freshman to start an opener for UNC in the season’s first game against rival South Carolina.
Howell played a strong first two games as the Tar Heels pulled off a pair of upsets to open the season, with Howell completing 62.5% and 66.7% of his passes, respectively, and four total scores in wins over the Gamecocks and Miami. But things really took off in his fourth start, a shootout loss to Appalachian State in which Howell went 27 of 41 for 323 yards. He’d go over 300 yards in six of the next nine games, throwing for 29 touchdowns in that span.
The high point would either be a 33-of-51 game for 376 yards against Georgia Tech in which he threw four touchdowns, or a monster win over NC State in the final regular season game of the year. With UNC 5-6, the Tar Heels needed a win against their in-state rivals to get into a bowl, and Howell responded to the moment by completing 69% of his passes and throwing for 401 yards and three scores. That’s some dawg stuff.
He’d also play well in a huge bowl win over Temple, completing 73% of his passes and throwing for three scores. Overall, he’d finish the year with 3,641 yards and 38 touchdown passes, setting the FBS record for touchdown passes by a true freshman. His advanced numbers were elite, too, with a 74% adjusted completion percentage and only 3.5% of his passes resulting in a turnover-worthy play. PFF gave him the second-highest grade of any freshman quarterback since its inception, trailing only Lawrence of Clemson. And he did it on high usage, dropping back 485 times, the third highest total of the quarterbacks I’ve written about, behind only Rosen and Lawrence. His only real flaw was against pressure, where he took 37 sacks.
Offensive Environment/Supporting Cast
North Carolina had had a bad season the previous year, but Fedora was a solid offensive coach and didn’t leave the cupboard totally devoid of talent. Receivers Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome would both go over 1,000 receiving yards and go on to be picked in the NFL draft. Tailbacks Michael Carter (1,003 rushing yards and 5.7 per carry) and Javonte Williams (933 yards and 5.6 per carry) also would also be hyper efficient and picked in the NFL in the coming years. And four of the five starters on the line graded out as good in pass protection, with the unit only allowing 104 pressures throughout the season.
Brown was in the CEO mold and brought in Phil Longo to essentially run the whole offense. Longo, now the OC at Wisconsin, practices an Air Raid offense that also incorporates some of the Art Briles Veer and Shoot concepts he picked up while coaching in Texas. It’s a spread, RPO-heavy attack that relies on single reads and optionality and isn’t asking a ton of its quarterbacks in protection, but Longo is a good/modern offensive mind who created a solid environment for his quarterbacks.
Future Performance
Howell would be even better as a sophomore. His yardage and touchdowns dipped a bit — the UNC running game finished sixth nationally in efficiency that year, so it was a bigger share of the offense — but his adjusted completion percentage stayed the same while he cut his turnover-worthy plays in half and raised his yards per attempt from an already-good 8.2 to a nuts 10.2. The North Carolina offense would finish seventh nationally in SP+ that year, and the Tar Heels would win eight games. Howell was the early favorite to go No. 1 overall in the 2022 draft.
But the Tar Heels would lose virtually all of their production around him entering his junior season, and Howell would put up only middling counting stats and take an astounding *49* sacks in his true junior season. His underlying numbers only fell off slightly, but the drop in performance — plus NFL teams watching his tape more closely and finding out his college offense was not translatable — caused his draft stock to tank. He would still enter early after his third year but would be picked at the end of the fifth round by Washington; in retrospect, too far a fall for only one season of bad play.
After a year mostly on the bench, the Commanders gave him a chance to start in 2023. He would put up nearly 4,000 passing yards but also throw 21 interceptions and get sacked a truly unbelievable 65 times. Understatement to say my man has not figured out the sack avoidance yet. He was traded to the Seahawks to be a backup this offseason as Washington took Daniels No. 2 overall last night.
Takeaways
Though Howell is going to play in a much more stats friendly offense than Raiola will, this is another example of what a quarterback like this can do when the things around them click: North Carolina was a nothing team a year before Howell’s arrival, then he rolled in with a good OC and immediately sent them on a huge two-year run of high-end offense. That’s what Nebraska can hope for. And after the first two players on this list went to smaller schools and largely failed, this is an example of it working.
2021
Caleb Williams, Oklahoma/Southern California
Recruiting Profile
Williams’ overall recruiting ranking profile clocks in around Raiola’s, at the No. 2 quarterback and No. 8 player in his class per 24/7 and No. 2 quarterback and No. 6 player per Rivals, trailing only Quinn Ewers at Texas in both services. Williams committed to the Sooners in the summer and stuck firm on his pledge, and enrolled in February and took part in spring practice as a freshman.
Williams’ physical build as a prep player is similar to Raiola’s, at about 6’2 and 215 pounds, and his arm talent, arm strength, and creation ability are described on similar terms. Williams also is praised for his dual-threat ability, though. He was also projected to be a first-round NFL pick, and comped to Dak Prescott.
Freshman Performance
OU returned starting quarterback Spencer Rattler from the previous year, who as a redshirt freshman had been one of the most prolific and efficient passers in the nation. Williams was expected to sit and learn for the year and take over the following season after Rattler left to be a high NFL draft pick.
It didn’t play out like that.
Williams, able to operate some quarterback-run concepts favored by head coach Lincoln Riley, got some play in the Sooners’ first five games as a Wildcat-esque quarterback, but otherwise barely saw the field. Rattler, too, was playing very well, averaging 252 passing yards on an average adjusted completion percentage of 82.1%. But Rattler wasn’t pushing the ball downfield much, and the Sooners had had to win close games over Tulane, Nebraska, West Virginia and Kansas State in their 5-0 start (all who would end up as top-30 SP+ teams, to be fair), which had led to some fan grumbling for the five-star freshman. And when Rattler started 8 for 15 with a pick and a fumble to put OU in a big hole in the season’s sixth game against rival Texas, and Williams had a 66-yard touchdown run on a fourth-and-1 carry, Riley made the quarterback switch in the second quarter.
It was initially supposed to be temporary, but Williams started bringing the Sooners back from the 21-point hole and would play the rest of the game. He’d finish with 300 yards of total offense in 2.5 quarters of play , including one of the sickest throws I’ve ever seen, to bring OU back to win. Riley re-opened the quarterback competition over the next week, and Williams was named the starter the rest of the way.
He’d play well again in his first start, throwing for 295 yards and four touchdowns on 23 attempts against TCU, and two weeks later would go 23 of 30 for 402 yards and six scores against Texas Tech.
But he would also have some duds as a freshman, more than people remember. He’d throw for just 150 yards in a near-loss to a Kansas team with a bottom-30 defense in FBS,5 and he would go 9 for 18 for only 142 yards and two interceptions and three sacks late in the season against No. 13 Baylor, the Sooners’ first loss. Two weeks later, playing No. 7 Oklahoma State with a berth in the Big 12 championship on the line, he’d complete just 51% of his passes and take six sacks in a four-point loss to the Cowboys. OSU and Baylor would play for the conference title. Williams would end his year, though, torching No. 14 Oregon in the Alamo Bowl.
On the whole, Williams’ freshman numbers would still be elite. He’d finish with 1,912 passing yards in seven starts (258 yards per game) on an adjusted completion percentage of 73% and with only seven turnover-worthy plays in 251 dropbacks (2.6%, one of the lowest turnover rates in the nation). He’d also gain 559 yards on non-sack rushes, at 8.7 yards per attempt and also score six touchdowns on the ground. Two areas where he struggled were with fumbles (11, nearly two per start) and sacks (19).
Offensive Environment/Supporting Cast
OU has been an offensive fireworks factory since Riley’s arrival, but the Sooners this year were just kind of meh at the skill positions. Receiver Marvin Mims was a talented player who would go on in the second round of the draft last year, and backs Kennedy Brooks and Eric Gray lead a rushing offense that finished seventh nationally in efficiency. But OU’s young talent out wide hadn’t really worked out; secondary weapons Michael Woods, Jadon Haselwood, and Mario Williams would never really go on to be anything but mediocre college players at later stops. Caleb Williams did have very solid protection, though, as guard Marquis Hayes and tackles Tyrese Robinson and Anton Harrison would grade out high in pass blocking at their positions. The unit surrendered just 102 pressures in 473 dropbacks.
Riley is one of the elite offensive minds in college football, so Williams’ infrastructure and playcalling was strong around him. Riley’s system is sort of a madhouse combination of Air Raid passing game, Joe Gibbs counter trey and deep play-action shots. It incorporates quite a few RPOs and option plays to make a quarterback’s life easier but also does ask them to make some complex reads.
Future Performance
Riley would controversially leave Oklahoma that offseason to take the Southern California job, and Williams and some of the other OU supporting cast would follow him in the transfer portal.
Williams’ two seasons at USC would be very prolific, if they didn’t provide as much team success as desired. As a sophomore, he’d throw for 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns on a pretty astounding 568 dropbacks, with 10 rushing scores added in. He’d win the Heisman and virtually every major quarterbacking award. He’d have 100 fewer dropbacks in his junior season, and his weapons and line both significantly worsened, so the counting stats would fall off. But he would still top 77% adjusted completion percentage and 9.0 yards per attempt in both years with the Trojans, and finish third and seventh nationally, respectively, in number of “big time throws” per PFF. USC during his tenure was atrocious defensively, and winning was often on his back alone, so his sack and fumble numbers were also both high.
He was selected No. 1 overall last night by Chicago in the NFL draft, considered by many evaluators to be the best quarterback prospect they’ve evaluated since Lawrence at Clemson or Andrew Luck of Stanford.
Takeaways
Williams and Raiola as passers seem like pretty similar comps, with Williams obviously having a dual-threat ability Raiola doesn’t seem to. The OU supporting cast at the skill spots is probably better than what NU is rolling with this year, and I think Riley is very definitely a better offensive schemer than Satterfield has shown. But I do think there is a high-end ceiling opportunity for Raiola — if protected — to be as explosive a downfield passer as Williams was in his first year. Those parts of their games seem to really overlap.
2023
Dante Moore, UCLA/Oregon
Recruiting Profile
Moore, from Detroit, clocked in with a similar evaluation to Raiola, with both in the top 10 overall players of their classes (Moore was No. 4 nationally per both 24/7 and Rivals). Moore was a participant in the Elite 11 camp, where he made the finals, and played in the Army All-American Bowl. He initially committed to Oregon in July 2022 before late flipping to the Bruins two days before the early signing deadline to fill UCLA’s open job at quarterback after the departure of Dorian Thompson-Robinson. He enrolled in the summer and did not participate in spring practice as a true freshman.
Both Moore and Raiola as recruits are described in their evaluations as prototypically sized pocket passers with athleticism to run/create but not necessarily to be used on designed carries. Moore’s profile describes his arm strength as “good, but not elite” but was considered to have elite “intangibles” and “understanding of the game.” He was projected to be a first-round NFL pick, and his player comp was also Dak Prescott.
Freshman Performance
While Moore entered as the most hyped of several quarterbacks in the running to replace Thompson-Robinson, coach Chip Kelly didn’t give him the job right away after a close camp battle, naming California transfer Ethan Garbers the starter in the opener while also splitting reps with Moore and another transfer, Collin Schlee. Moore would outplay Garbers, completing 7 of 12 passes for 143 yards and two scores with an interception, while Garbers only had 7.1 yards per attempt in his series and threw two picks, as UCLA barely beat Coastal Carolina. Moore would start the next week against San Diego State.
The game against the Aztecs was Moore’s best of the season, as he’d throw for 290 yards and three scores with only one turnover-worth play. Kelly would decide to split the quarterback reps in the third game of the season, and Moore would again outplay the other two passers, going 8 for 12 and 180 yards. In his first three games, Moore would have adjusted completion percentages of 87.5%, 82.6%, and 90% with only two turnover-worthy plays and seven touchdowns. Pretty good!
The rest of the season would be … not pretty good. Moore was named the full-time starter the next week against No. 11 Utah, which had one of the top defenses in the country. His first pass of the game would be a pick six, and he would complete only 15 passes in 44 dropbacks (though UCLA would also have five drops), and take seven sacks in a game the Bruins would lose 14-7. The next two weeks, against No. 13 Washington State and No. 15 Oregon State (teams with decidedly worse defenses than Utah) he would complete just 36 passes in 92 dropbacks, with seven turnover-worthy plays (five of which would actually be intercepted, with a pick-six in each) and take nine sacks. As the backbreaking mistakes piled up, Kelly would go back to Garbers in the OSU game and roll with Garbers as starter in the next several weeks. Moore would return as starter for the season finale against California after Garbers was injured, and Moore would again throw two more interceptions and take six more sacks.
Over his six games as the primary quarterback, Moore would finish with 1,610 yards and finish with an adjusted completion percentage of 68.6%. He’d also take 27 sacks in those six games, with a pressure-to-sack ratio of 26%, the highest of anyone on this list. He’d also commit 14 turnover-worthy plays on the year. Moore was a much more aggressive downfield passer than any of UCLA’s other QBs and would lead the team in yardage, but Garbers would clearly outplay him for the season from an efficiency and ball-control standpoint.
Offensive Environment/Supporting Cast
UCLA wasn’t cooking with much in terms of skill talent but wasn’t totally devoid of it, either. Receivers J. Michael Sturdivant, Logan Loya and Kyle Ford were solid players, with Sturdivant and Loya considered NFL prospects in next year’s draft and Ford transferring to USC in the offseason. Tailback Carson Steele was a good player, and the Bruins finished 26th nationally in rushing efficiency. The line offered good protection up the middle but did struggle at both tackle spots, with starter Bruno Fina finishing with a 16.2 pass-blocking grade (on a scale out of 100) per PFF as one of the worst starting tackles in the Power 5.
Kelly, discussed more in-depth during the Thompson-Robinson profile in Part 2, was still a strong offensive voice and left UCLA in the offseason to coordinate at Ohio State.
Future Performance
Unhappy with his benchings, Moore hit the transfer portal in December and landed at Oregon, where he was committed for five months during his initial recruitment. He looks poised to back up Dillon Gabriel this year and take over as starter for the Ducks in 2025.
Takeaways
Moore is another one of the (pretty rare) disaster scenarios in this group. His own irresponsible play certainly didn’t help, but I think there are also certainly things to be learned by Nebraska from his situation, specifically in the switching around of the starting quarterbacks and the lack of protection he was given at the tackle spots.
Conclusions
To start by answering the question of this 25,000-word project: Does starting a five-star true freshman work?
In reviewing the last 15 years of major-conference play … yeah, it almost always does, in either the short or the long term. Of the 21 five-star (or close) quarterbacks to start at least six games in their true freshman year whom I surveyed in this study, eight played at an elite, all-conference level as true freshmen (Christian Hackenberg at Penn State, Deshaun Watson at Clemson, Josh Rosen at UCLA, Jalen Hurts at Alabama, Trevor Lawrence at Clemson, Jayden Daniels at Arizona State, Sam Howell at North Carolina, and Caleb Williams at Oklahoma), five played at an above-average-starter level as true freshmen (Matt Barkley at USC, Teddy Bridgewater at Louisville, Jake Browning at Washington, Jacob Eason at Georgia, and Jake Fromm at Georgia), four more played at an average-starter level as true freshmen (Braxton Miller at Ohio State, Brad Kaaya at Miami, JT Daniels at USC, and Bo Nix at Auburn), and only four played at a below-average level as true freshmen (Drew Lock at Missouri, Kellen Mond at Texas A&M, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Dante Moore at UCLA).
While things like supporting cast and context matter (quite a few of these guys are going to elite programs with great supporting casts, which Nebraska doesn’t have), that’s a pretty solid hit rate for what the NU program is about to embark on. Combining the top two tiers, about 62% of these guys have given their teams above-average (or better) quarterbacking the second they stepped on campus. And combining the third tier, about 80% of them represent a competent, if not better, level of quarterback play that would be a significant improvement on what NU was rolling with last year. And only about 19% were poor players as freshmen.
These guys also had a lot of team success as freshmen starters, too. Eighteen of the 21 teams to start one of these players qualified for a bowl,6 three of them would win a conference title, three of them would make a College Football Playoff, and one would win a national title. Obviously those top-end results were for players who suited up for Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson — programs well above Nebraska in talent and aspirations right now — but starting one of these guys doesn’t necessarily preclude you from having an elite season, either.
Those results are just from Year 1, too. Several of those starters who were average and above-average as true freshman would go on to elite seasons later in their careers, and Lock, Mond, and Thompson-Robinson, who were initially pretty poor players, went on to good college careers. Hackenberg and JT Daniels would obviously fall off quite a bit in estimation after their freshman years, but both at least delivered good play as true freshman. So everyone on this list (except for Moore, whose career is still too young to judge) delivered either good college play as freshman or later on. Though the college football landscape has changed a lot in the last few years with the transfer portal and NIL, taken on the whole, none of these guys who played were bad in both the short- and the long-term. This has been a safe bet.
Now, to get into some more specific takeaways we can gather from this sample:
Supporting Cast Matters, Especially Protection
If you look for commonalities among the players who were elite their freshman years (Hackenberg, Watson, Rosen, Hurts, Lawrence, Daniels, Howell, and Williams) and the players who were bad their freshman years (Lock, Thompson-Robinson, Mond and Moore), one thing that stands out is pass protection.
While six of the eight elite freshman quarterbacks played behind lines that were at least good to excellent, Lock, Thompson-Robinson, and Moore played behind three of the five lines offensive lines on this list that surrendered 130 or more pressures. Thompson-Robinson (159 pressures in 2018) and Moore (155 in 2023) had it the worst, but the 2015 Mizzou line also allowed 132 pressures. The other two quarterbacks on this list that faced more than 130 pressures (Browning and Rosen) were successful, but they also took very high sack totals. Daniels also had a pretty successful season while getting pressured 120 times in his first year at ASU.
The line also matters a lot in these quarterbacks’ future developments: It was one of the biggest reasons for Hackenberg, Nix, and Daniels all falling-off in seasons immediately after solid freshman campaigns.
There were a couple players on this list who played with good skill weapons and only decent/mediocre protection as freshman (Mond, JT Daniels) and several who played with good protection and few skill weapons (Bridgewater, Eason, Fromm, Nix). While this is a small sample size, on the whole, you’d pretty clearly take the latter group of players. If you’re picking between one thing your team should be good at to help a freshman QB, competence up front matters more than skill out wide.
Nebraska quietly protected pretty well last year, only allowing 98 pressures against a good defensive schedule, and returns four players who got snaps with good pass-protection grades. But it doesn’t have a ton of depth and will lose at least three contributors to graduation next year. Reloading the line in the 2024 offseason will need to be a priority.
… But Elite Weapons Take It To Another Level
It seems fairly clear having at least competence in pass protection is a prerequisite for these guys to succeed. If you want to be great, though, you’ve probably got to have some NFL dudes on the outside.
Of the players who were above average quarterbacks as freshmen, Hackenberg, Watson, Hurts, Lawrence, Williams, Fromm and Jayden Daniels all had a receiver who would go to be a good NFL starter. The top targets for Barkley, Eason, and Howell didn’t go on to start in the league but were either elite prep recruits or would go on to longtime reserve NFL roles (Howell was also handing off and checking down to two NFL running backs). Bridgewater and Browning were the only above-average freshmen passers who weren’t primarily throwing to NFL targets in their first years, but even they would have DeVante Parker and John Ross and Dante Pettis in their rotations, respectively. And the only guy who had both that delivered less-than-above-average results with both a good line and good weapons was Kaaya at Miami, who we’d go on to find was just an OK player.
All of these guys were well protected. But the protection establishes baseline competence; for the high-end results, you need elite skill weapons.
Nebraska’s weapons were decidedly not NFL caliber last year, but I hear about a Jaylen Lloyd 80-yard touchdown virtually every scrimmage, so maybe that’s about to change?
Expect Sacks
Virtually all of these guys took a high sack total, even if they were well protected. Of the guys in the PFF era, nearly all had a pressure-to-sack ratio of over 19%, which is very poor. Even players who would go on later in their careers to be elite at sack prevention, like Barkley, Lawrence, and Williams, those players would take 17, 11 and 20 sacks in their first seasons and have several multi-sack games.
Deciphering pressure and making quick decisions is one of the hardest things for a quarterback to learn, so this is not super surprising. But it’s also pretty reasonable to expect for Raiola to be on the deck a lot next season, no matter how good he is; it just happens when you put young quarterbacks on the field.
Rushing Ability Provides A Life-Raft
Having the ability to run and escape when you make those mistakes — and to generate offense on designed runs — is incredibly valuable for these first-year players. If you look at who was successful, nearly all scrambled more or had more designed runs called for them as freshman than they would later in their careers. It was a useful crutch for freshman QBs as they learned the nuances of passing at the Power-5 level. Clemson and Alabama, in particular, turned to Watson, Lawrence, and Hurts’ legs early in their tenures against elite opponents, even as those players were very successful through the air. It’s just easier to move the ball against good defenses if the quarterbacks’ legs are a threat.
Rushing ability is also just a good way to raise the floor for bad passers. Miller and Mond were two of the worst passers in this sample but were able to produce average overall quarterback play by functioning as elite rushing threats. Nix, too, was a pretty mediocre passer in his first year and raised his floor through his rushing ability.
Raiola isn’t really a designed-run threat — and I’d get NU fans being wary of QB rushing after their experiences the last several years with quarterbacks being run into the ground — but a handful of designed runs for Raiola or getting him on the edge for bootlegs or sprintouts isn’t a bad idea — in moderation — either.
Modern, Stable Coordination
The quarterbacks who played in modern systems that gave quarterbacks easier answers were able to have more success early. Plenty of guys did well as freshman in complex systems — Barkley, Bridgewater, Hackenberg, Browning, Eason, and Fromm — but those players all were from the 2017 recruiting class or earlier. There was a sea-change in 2018 with elite, staid college football programs like Alabama embracing modern offense and ushering in an era with scoring as king. Since then, no one of the freshmen on this list who have thrived have played in those old “pro-style” systems. Putting these guys in schemes that at least work to simplify quarterbacks’ reads and do things like embrace RPOs or read-option elements to make their lives easier seems to help a lot.
That should be a concern if you’re a Nebraska fan. Rhule has adopted a distinctly pre-2018 Nick Saban mindset, seemingly preferring to play a sort of bully ball he finds aesthetically pleasing. While Michigan just won a title embracing that philosophy, that mindset would seem be at odds with what things are telling us here.
And also in regards to offensive coordination — and this is mostly advice for future years — the programs that lost or removed these quarterbacks’ primary play-callers or offensive architects early in their careers often regretted it. Most of the players would perform poorly in the season after the switch, and after the inception of the transfer portal were usually going to a new school for a fresh start following that poor season. Consistent coaching points, advice and drill work is important for quarterback development; you don’t play want to play around with this if you can’t help it.
That’s also worrying as, I would say, most thinking Nebraska fans have, at best, a deep skepticism of Marcus Satterfield’s qualifications or skill as the primary play-caller from his past stops. I’ll let it play out on the field, but it’s also not hard to imagine a world in which NU is trying to find a new coordinator sometime in the next couple years.
Being An Early-Enrollee Helps
This is a less-important factor now as enrolling early is commonplace, but if you especially look at the period before 2018 when it was still fairly rare you can see it’s value. Virtually all the guys who enrolled early in that period were successful, while notably Kaaya, Lock, and Moore didn’t. Hackenberg didn’t enroll early, either, but went on to a good season, though he only didn’t because of the turmoil around PSU’s program at the time of his recruitment.
Letting Somebody Chill For A Second Is Fine
There were plenty of quarterbacks on this list who took a team’s first snap of the season and were good. If you think they are capable enough to not physically endanger themselves or develop bad habits, it seems like you should let it ride. But there also seemed to be some value in easing these guys into starting roles around conference play. Miller, Bridgwater, Watson, Hurts, Fromm, Lawrence, and Williams all carried a clipboard as the season opened. Some would enter from injury or poor play, but some were viewed as “quarterbacks of the future” who were worked into rotations slowly and then given the keys to the car around Game 4 or 5.
I’m not sure Raiola will be afforded this luxury, but if NU were to add a vet passer in the spring portal and let Raiola ease himself into the starting job, it’s not really an indictment of his play. And may in fact be a boost.
That’s it for now! The long wait to see this new era of Nebraska football is over tomorrow. This, personally, feels like the most excited I’ve been for a spring game since 2019, when Adrian Martinez’s sophomore potential had us all in a frenzy (thought the non-contact format of that game was largely a let down). Mostly, I am just deeply fiending to watch some football.
More content will be coming this offseason. There will be some sort of spring game recap coming once I figure out what I want to talk about, plus I have at least one other research project I wanted to tackle, if not more. But, for now, thanks for reading and GBR.
This was a down year for passers overall in recruiting rankings but would produce a lot of good players.
His adjusted completion percentage was 85.5%, which seems not possible?
One of Edwards’ emergency levers to save his program was to hire Glenn Thomas (now Nebraska’s quarterbacks coach) as his offensive coordinator. Daniels reportedly didn’t like the idea of working with a third coordinator in four seasons, which factored into his transfer.
We get our second straight recruit who chose a non-elite program out of high school, played middling ball at his initial stop, transferred after coaching upheaval, and then went supernova for two years at his new school … Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels do the Predator arm clasp.
And got away with a balogna “forward fumble” call I’m definitely still not mad about as a KU alum.
Hackenberg and Penn State qualified for a bowl but were under NCAA sanctions, so only 17 actually played in bowls.