OFFENSIVE RECAP: 2023 Colorado

The Husker offense's level of mistakes continues to openly defy math and basic reason

Nebraska slot receiver Billy Kemp. Photo courtesy Nebraska Athletics.

Glossary of Terms¹

Link To Game Breakdown Sheet²

DRIVE 1

8 Plays, 5.25 Yards Per Play
25% Success Rate
2 Explosive Plays, 2 Havoc Plays Allowed

The conventional wisdom pregame was that Nebraska should come out and run on a Colorado front seven that gave up over 7 rushing yards per non-sack carry in its Week 1 win over TCU, and the Huskers obliged. The issue: Colorado heard this all week, too, and was determined (at least early) to throw bodies at stopping the run. The Buffaloes lined up in a heavy box on 4 of 6 standard downs (non-third-and-long situations) this drive, with a five-man front designed to occupy all NU linemen on three of the snaps. On two other occasions this drive they brought a slot player off a quick blitz to try to get penetration and muck up Nebraska’s backfield action. It was effective, with Nebraska trying a variety of run concepts on this opening salvo — from inside Duo and Power runs to outside plays like Toss or Lead Option — that all got stuffed. Nebraska’s five run plays on this drive gained a combined 4 yards.

But quarterback Jeff Sims did show some improved passing process from last week, at least early. He converted NU’s first third down with a good rep on a Drive concept, a play former coordinator Mark Whipple loved and the Huskers ran a lot last year:

Drive is a zone coverage beater that tries to create a high-low stress on an underneath defender, forcing them to choose between prioritizing a shallow drag route and a deeper 10-yard “basic,” or in, route. Here’s a diagram of a similar Drive play that the Huskers ran last year under Whipple:

Sims identifies it’s zone coverage early and goes straight to the Drive side (NU had a man coverage-beating concept to the other side of the formation) and waits for the zone defender to clear before hitting tight end Nate Boerkircher for a 17-yard pickup. The protection holds up, too. Sims also showed a faster process in hitting slot receiver Billy Kemp on a short Stick concept a few plays later, with Kemp breaking a big run after the catch to create an explosive and get the Huskers in range for a field goal. NU went to this play last week against Minnesota with Sims not even reading the primary side of the play, going to the backside post on every rep. So that was demonstrating at least some progress.

Two more stuffed runs lead to a third-and-long. Coordinator Scott Satterfield calls the same Drive play on third down that worked earlier this possession, but Sims drops the snap and tries to pick it up to keep the play alive instead of diving on it, giving him his first turnover and costing the Huskers likely points.

DRIVE 2

3 Plays, 2.0 Yards Per Play
0% Success Rate
0 Explosive Plays, 0 Havoc Plays Allowed

After the big mistake, Sims starts to come unraveled a bit. Nebraska opens the drive in 13 personnel (one back and three tight ends) looking to pound the ball, but Colorado again answers by lining up in the heavy five-down Bear front and stuffs an inside Duo run. It’s the same Colorado look on second down, and Satterfield tries to take advantage of this with a play-action concept with a curl and a short post to one side of the field and a more downfield combo of a post and a wheel on the other. Colorado has few bodies at the second level and is in man-coverage, so this is a pretty juicy look that should lead to an easy completion. But Sims doesn’t take his drop and releases an inaccurate ball off his back foot when pressured. Tight end Thomas Fidone probably should have still caught this, but an on-target pass leads Fidone out in front of the man defender he’s beaten for run-after-catch and doesn’t make it a tough, to-the-ground catch. On third-and-7, NU goes back to the same Stick concept that Kemp had the big run on after the catch on the first drive, but this time CU rallies for a quick stop and forces a punt.

DRIVE 3

5 Plays, 5.0 Yards Per Play
40% Success Rate
0 Explosive Plays, 0 Havoc Plays Allowed

Colorado shifted to devoting fewer resources to the run on the third series, which let Nebraska start to get a little loose on the ground. After being in a heavy box on 60% of their plays through the first two drives, the Buffaloes would be in one just 9% of their snaps for the rest of the half. 

NU took advantage to open this drive with a few solid zone runs, the first on a Split Zone out of a two tight-end set and then two consecutive solid runs on the same Outside Zone play with receiver Alex Bullock (the receiver to the bottom of the screen) crack blocking a box player inside:

But the momentum gets derailed on a false start by left guard Ethan Piper, his second costly penalty this year after the goalline flinch last week at Minnesota took a touchdown off the board. Losing 5 yards is not that impactful in isolation. But the Huskers don’t have a good enough dropback passing game right now to consistently convert in long-yardage situations and are attempting to run an efficiency-based attack. NU’s current best method of scoring is to go on long drives. You do that by keeping the train on the tracks with sharp execution for consistent gains, and you can almost never afford to lose yardage through unforced errors like procedural penalties. Those are ruining drives for NU right now. The Huskers could have run the ball on second-and-7 to set up a manageable third down in which the threat of the run or pass could have kept Colorado’s passing-down pressure package and strategy off the field. But Piper’s mistake makes it a second-and-12, and now you have to pass — which is when almost all of Nebraska’s back-breaking mistakes are occurring. Predictably, Sims can’t find an opening against Colorado’s elite secondary when CU drops into Cover 4 to set up another long third down. NU motions into empty and runs a shallow drag screen to Kemp, but the Buffaloes again rally to tackle him short of the sticks:

This is a concept meant to beat man coverage, with the hope that you can get Kemp in one-on-one man coverage and then literally block his defender to get him space to run after the catch. TCU had a lot of success burning the Buffs’ iso coverage with these little pick route-type concepts, such as Mesh, so this was a smart call. By starting in a standard open doubles formation and motioning to empty, NU is able to get a pre-snap tell that Colorado is running man coverage: The defender responsible for running back Rahmir Johnson runs with Johnson as he motions out of the backfield; had it been zone, that defender would have stayed in the box and the coverage would have rolled. At the snap, Kemp at first runs across the formation like he’s on a drag route but crosses back behind the line of scrimmage just after reaching the hash. Because he’s catching the ball behind the line of scrimmage, NU’s receivers are able to block down the field before the ball is thrown. Nebraska’s No. 3 receiver to the trips side, 6’4 true freshman Malachi Coleman, just runs to the middle of the field and stock blocks the defender who’s covering Kemp on the route, while the Nos. 1 and 2 block their defenders down the field.

It gets a nice gain for Nebraska, but even good calls are going to be pretty rarely successful for this team against third-and-12. This offense is dead in the water in those situations and can’t continue to be responsible for putting itself in them. Mistakes during the run of play are inevitable; sometimes when you’re playing hard and fast you get called for holding or pass interference or miss a block. Those happen and are excusable. But procedural stuff like false starts or delays of game or dropping a snap occur because you’re not paying attention. Those can’t really continue to be routinely acceptable if NU wants to play an efficiency-based style, especially not in Piper’s case, a player who has been in the program for years and has previously started over three seasons.