OFFENSIVE RECAP: 2023 Michigan
What's with the Wolverines and stuffing Husker quarterback runs on fourth-and-1 in the redzone??
Glossary of Terms1
Link to Game Sheet2
DRIVE 1
2 Plays, 0.5 Yards Per Play
0% Success Rate
0 Explosive Plays, 1 Havoc Plays Allowed
Both teams open the game with a focus on the run: Nebraska comes out in heavy 21 personnel (a fullback and a tight end on the field), while Michigan makes it clear it’s watched the Huskers’ tape from the past few weeks, employing a five-man front and rolling a safety down to put eight players in the box. This would be a theme
Coordinator Scott Satterfield opens the game with the Power O play Nebraska had a 71% Success Rate with last week, this time attaching a jet motion to it as window dressing, but Michigan is overpowering at the line and stuffs it after a yard. The Power O play had a 71% Success Rate last week, but would not be successful once Saturday. Turns out it’s a lot harder to block the nation’s No. 1 defense than Louisiana Tech!
On the next snap, Satterfield goes to the opposite philosophy, taking the fullback off the field and getting in a spread trey empty formation:
Receiver Billy Kemp IV is initially aligned to the top of the two-receiver side but motions in to a “stack” behind the other receiver just before the snap. Michigan was showing a press coverage look, and Kemp is not a big or physical player who is able to beat press easily, so motioning him in behind another receiver prevents the defense from being able to get its hands on him at the line. Satterfield would do this consistently Saturday, a nice little wrinkle to keep his best receiver insulated from the physicality of the UM secondary. Michigan was indeed playing press, and the receiver in front of Kemp battles the press defender down the field, giving Kemp a free downfield release on a slant route and leverage against the Michigan corner for what looks like an easy completion. Quarterback Heinrich Haarberg, in his third start, initially opens up to the trips side of the formation, but with UM in press, the short routes have all been blanketed. He works his way back over to the other side of the formation to find Kemp, a good early rep of processing for a young QB.
But offensive guard Nouredin Nouili is not engaged with the defender over him, allowing the defensive lineman to get a hand up and deflect the pass, with the carom going straight up and to Michigan’s nose tackle for an interception. Haarberg has a sort of side-arm/three-quarters throwing release that makes him more susceptible to tipped balls at the line, but offensive lineman also have a responsibility to keep the hands of the defenders they’re engaged with down, and Nouili is standing still, not blocking anyone when the pass is thrown. That one’s on him. Haarberg is credited with a turnover for one of his better dropback passing reps to date.
DRIVE 2
9 Plays, 7.5 Yards Per Play
22.2% Success Rate
1 Explosive Play, 0 Havoc Plays Allowed
Nebraska comes onto the field in heavy personnel (12, or one back and two tight ends), and the Wolverines again match with a heavy, five-man-across Bear front. Michigan did this pretty much all game: On snaps where Nebraska played with multiple tight ends or a fullback on the field, UM was in a Bear front 64% of the time. The Wolverines were not scared of anyone on Nebraska hurting their secondary one-on-one, and just threw bodies at the front to stop the run.
Again with motion to disguise, Nebraska runs the Tom Osborne-era 41 Toss play that worked so well last week (100% Success Rate on all three reps last week and 80% for the season), but it again gets stuffed for one yard. Nebraska would run it three times in regular play Saturday; none was a successful play and they gained a combined 6 yards.
Satterfield is mixing in passes, and on second and long, calls a mirrored passing concept with a vertical clearout from the No. 1 receivers on the outside and a 10-yard out route by the No. 2 receivers. Michigan is dropping eight into coverage as part of a sim pressure, but Haarberg processes quickly and gets the ball out to split out tight end Thomas Fidone for a first down:
Running vertical clearout routes with short breakers to the outside was a big part of Satterfield’s gameplan, likely to take advantage of Michigan’s heavy Cover 1 and Cover 3 usage, which aren’t advantageous coverages for defending intermediate depth outside the numbers, though Michigan has Cover 4 on here. This is the same play against the same coverage that previous starting quarterback Jeff Sims threw an interception on in the Colorado game:
The difference is Haarberg lets the ball rip on time, while Sims looks to the other side of the field, runs around a bit, and then tries to throw late.
After two more short runs out of heavy personnel again, on third and 5 Nebraska gets its first explosive pass play of the game, again by clearing out space for Kemp on a slant route out of a doubles stacked alignment against press:
The look starts as a trips-formation bunch to the other side of the formation before Kemp motions across the formation to the doubles stack just before the snap, changing the picture on the UM defense before it can adjust and preventing it from keying on this Kemp-slant tendency. Like the previous time NU ran this, the Wolverines are again playing press man-coverage, but this time they’re also dropping eight into coverage as part of another sim pressure. The playside defensive end token fakes to the line before dropping right into the passing lane, indicating UM may have known this was coming. Kemp puts an absolutely nasty head fake on the Michigan corner at the top of the route to break open inside, and Haarberg shows nice decision-making and second-reaction play to hold off on delivering the ball until Kemp is clear of the extra coverage defender. The run-after-catch gains 34 yards, too.
Satterfield begins realizing straight-ahead runs aren’t working against this defense and that he’s going to need misdirection and fast-hitters to the edge. On the ensuing play, he tries a counter-action misdirection play to take advantage of Michigan’s interior aggressiveness on the run with a sweep to Kemp following behind a Tommi Hill jet motion:
This is actually an old Flexbone offense staple, typically run with the wingback in that style of offense but run here with a bunch receiver.
Michigan flows with the backfield action instead of the guard pulling away from it, and Kemp gains 4 yards but gets tripped up by a lineman; a possibly bigger gain was blocked on this one that the Huskers didn’t take advantage of.
After a 5-yard penalty and a short completion on another Clearout-Vertical concept out of empty, NU goes back to a similar misdirection sweep idea on third down to tight end/fullback/converted receiver Janiran Bonner:
Bonner’s gets the while running a jet motion out of his alignment as a wing tight end, something NU’s Ys do frequently as lead blockers on running plays. Michigan isn’t quite fooled, and he comes up a yard short of converting. After some deliberation, NU does go for the fourth-and-1 inside the 15, trying an inside QB run with three interior double teams, but the play gets stuffed when the backside wing tight end gets blown backwards by standout Michigan edge defender Braiden McGregor, collapsing the running lane from the outside. I liked the call to go for it, but trying to overpower this Michigan front seven hasn’t worked for NU yet, so I’m not sure why they thought they could do it there.
DRIVE 3
3 Plays, 1.66 Yards Per Play
0% Success Rate
0 Explosive Plays, 1 Havoc Play Allowed
Satterfield is determined to not start this drive with a run that gets stuffed for a yard, calling a short Spacing pass concept (3-yard hitch routes across the board) just looking to pick up 5 yards to start the drive. The breaks from the receivers are there, but Haarberg doesn’t pull the trigger on time and scrambles for a yard. Satterfield’s in a tough spot here, as it’s clear NU can’t move the Michigan front in the run game, but he also doesn’t have the receiver talent to get separation or a quarterback who can execute consistently in the dropback passing game. Against lesser teams, he could rely on the run or option game. Not here. He’s more-or-less now reduced to trying to generate misdirection or hope he can get somebody loose on run after catch off an underneath passing play.
Satterfield tries to get outside again on a Pin-Pull running play on second down, pulling the offensive tackle and center to the weak side, but Haarberg drops the snap for a loss of seven3:
Michigan had big numbers to the strong side, so this play might have gone well without the mistake.
On third down and long now, Nebraska lines up in a two-tight end trips closed formation:
They were using this formation last week exclusively to run the Freeze Option concept, and you can see Michigan is keyed into this and adjusts to it by bringing a safety down to get another player to the edge of the formation. But Satterfield is countering this by running a vertical passing concept; I can’t really see the routes after they get down the field. It’s well covered by Michigan and Haarberg scrambles short of the marker, but this was a good tendency-breaking play-call by the OC.
DRIVE 4
6 Plays, 4.0 Yards Per Play
16% Success Rate
0 Explosive Plays, 2 Havoc Plays Allowed
The drive starts with the Toss play out of the heavy I formation, which at least gets 3 yards this time. On second and third down, NU spreads it out to try to run Stick (a quick passing play with two short curls and a vertical route) on consecutive plays. The first out a shotgun trips alignment, with Haarberg’s pass to the backside post getting batted back to him at the line and him running for two yards, and then another out of empty, where he again goes to the backside on another clearout slant for Kemp. This was also a big empty formation game, with NU running empty on 10% of its snaps in regular time; its season average entering was 1.2%.
I thought Haarberg was operating the passing game pretty well up until this point, but you can see him start to get rushed here; he doesn’t read the playside on either of these snaps. He does complete another stack-slant to Kemp for 12 yards to move the chains, but he has much worse process, essentially locking onto Kemp at the snap and just waiting for him to clear zone coverage and forcing the ball. The Wolverines were in spot-drop coverage, so there should have been holes to the Stick side if he had been decisive.
After its lucky conversion, NU gets into heavy personnel on first down again, with Michigan adjusting to its own heavy box. Satterfield again tries a misdirection run out of the I formation, this time a little fullback trap off the Toss play:
This play has the same line movement and backfield action the same as 41 Toss, meant to get the defense flowing to the edge, while you sneak the ball to the fullback up the middle. A nice counter call, but Michigan’s front is completely overpowering at this point. On second down, NU goes to its zone-arrow RPO, with Haarberg reading the edge defender to either throw the flat or hand off the ball. This was the play Haarberg was previously used as a tight end on in the Colorado game, but he misreads it as the quarterback and tries to pulls the ball to throw with the edge staying wide, resulting in a sack. On third down with Michigan playing deep sticks defense, the Huskers are able to complete another underneath pass, but its not enough in the third and long. The last three drives have had a play lose yardage on unforced NU mental errors (the false start in the redzone on Drive 2, the dropped snap on Drive 3, and the RPO misread here) that have put the Huskers behind the chains. Michigan had enough of a talent advantage here without NU shooting itself in the foot.
DRIVE 5
3 Plays, 7.6 Yards Per Play
66% Success Rate
1 Explosive Play, 0 Havoc Plays Allowed
With less than a minute before the half when NU takes over, Michigan plays with light boxes and deep safeties on all three snaps. NU gets its second explosive play of the game when Haarberg keeps the ball on a quarterback draw/running back swing pass RPO, which is kind of a cheapie with the Wolverines dropping deep just trying to prevent a monster passing gain down the field. On second down, NU again gets in the Freeze Option trips formation and tries the same deep passing play, which Haarberg checks down, again a kind of cheapie against the deep-dropping defense. A final incompletion on third down as time expires sends the Huskers to the half scoreless.
DRIVE 6
4 Plays, 14.5 Yards Per Play
50% Success Rate
1 Explosive Play, 2 Havoc Plays
Coming out of the half down 28-0, Nebraska is able to finally pull together the blocking, receivers, and QB play to take advantage of Michigan’s heavy fronts and aggressiveness against the run with a big passing shot down the field:
The Huskers are in a doubles formation with two attached tight ends, which the Wolverines again counter with the Heavy bear front, seven defenders around the line of scrimmage, and one safety deep. Nebraska needs both tight ends to stay in and protect (and a running back to chip) to create any sort of pocket against the Wolverines’ five rushers, so this is only a three-person route concept (the running back releasing into the flat and the two receivers). UM is in Cover 3 (remember they played it on over half of their snaps Saturday), meaning the routes have to contend with the corner over the outside receiver dropping into a downfield third (purple arrow below), the deep middle safety dropping into a downfield third (orange arrow), and the slot corner going to the flat (red arrow):
The middle safety takes a deep drop at the snap, clearing out space over the deep middle of the field. Kemp (blue arrow), in the slot, is pressed at the line and has some trouble getting out into his route, but does successfully tie down the flat defender. The two linebackers also initially bite on the run fake to the running back (white arrow), clearing some space in the middle of the field. That, in essence, leaves No. 1 receiver Marcus Washington (green arrow) one-on-one with a corner playing outside leverage, and his inside-breaking post route finds a big hole. The line — with it’s 7.5 players protecting against Michigan’s five rushers — creates its first competent passing pocket of the day, and Haarberg makes a nice throw that turns into a 56-yard gain to get NU in the 20.
The rest of the drive would go … less well. Nebraska lines up in the same formation and personnel on the next snap, and Michigan comes out in the same defensive look, but the Wolverines snuff out an Inside Zone run for a short gain. On second down, NU tries one of the outside option plays that’s been so successful for it over Haarberg’s two starts:
NU gets the picture-perfect look it wants: The trips formation draws Michigan bodies to the side of the field opposite the play, the Wolverines are in a four-man front, freeing up the line to get to the second level more than a five-man front would, and the Wolverines play man coverage, meaning the secondary players will have eyes on their receivers at the snap and turning their backs to the play as they get down the field. The other thing to notice here is how the back, Anthony Grant, starts lined up in the pistol alignment and then shifts to the opposite side of the formation to where the option goes; typically for these plays, the pitch man is going to be on the same side of the formation as where the play is going. The back’s alignment was probably a big pregame tell for when NU was going to run that play. A nice bit of tendency breaking by Satterfield.
But right tackle Bryce Benhart, leaving the end man on the line of scrimmage to be read on the option, can’t block a linebacker one-on-one on a straight shot, forcing an early pitch from Haarberg, which is tackled for a short gain. A fumble advances the ball 6 yards,4 but had Benhart been able to lock up a guy who weighs 70 pounds less than him, this probably would have been a nice, chain-moving gain in the redzone. More silly self-inflicted mistakes cripple a drive.
Entering this game these Load/Speed/Freeze outside option plays had been NU’s best play, delivering both explosive runs and efficiency, with a success rate of 72.3%. But NU would run just two of them on Saturday, with neither being a successful play. How Michigan played these option plays is also notable: Entering Week 5, Nebraska quarterbacks had kept the ball on read-run plays 68.6% of the time, but Michigan forced the ball out of the quarterback’s hands on 66% of run plays with a read. The Wolverines knew the Huskers’ quarterback run game was among the only things it did well on offense, and it was determined to take it away.
The drive ends on a third and 7, after another procedural penalty backs NU up 5 yards from a manageable third down (that they might have gone for on fourth). NU runs a Mesh play, but Michigan presses everyone at the line and causes chaos on the layering of the routes. UM’s edge defender to the field, McGregor, is lined up in a super wide stance, and gets a running start at tackle Turner Corcoran from an angle and blows up the play for a sack. A missed field goal keeps the Michigan shutout intact.
DRIVE 7
3 Plays, 0.0 Yards Per Play
0% Success Rate
0 Explosive Plays, 2 Havoc Plays Allowed
Now down 35-0, Satterfield just goes into pass mode. NU tries to get another big gain off post routes to each side of a doubles formation against Cover 3, but Michigan has a slot pressure blitz on and is rolls its coverage into a Cover 2 look after the snap despite showing single-high coverage before the snap. The disguise doesn’t end up mattering because the ball is batted down at the line. On second down, Satterfield tries a true RPO, with a downfield glance off an Outside Zone play. Michigan again collapses on the run, but Haarberg pulls the ball out late and has to adjust the ball in his hand, leading to another pass being batted at the line. That’s now at least three completions on the day that were batted down at the LOS. On third down, the center snaps the ball too early, with the receivers still looking to the sideline for the check-with-me audible:
Haarberg is forced to just ditch it on a broken play, and NU is punting again after three straight incompletions.
After this drive, Michigan’s backups hit the field, signaling the end of regular time. NU would score to avoid the shutout when Josua Fleeks took a counter play 74 yards to the house in the fourth quarter, but, overall, a dominant performance by the UM defense and a return to Earth by the Nebraska offense.
Because this was kind of a dud of a week for the offensive breakdown, with only 30 plays in regular time, I’ve got a short piece also planned for later in the week looking at some broader things stats are showing are causing the offense’s struggles. We’ve got five games of data now; we’re at a point where I think I can start drawing some conclusions. I’m planning for that to be out Friday before the game against Illinois. GBR.
Yards Per Play measures how many non-penalty yards NU gained on a possession divided by its non-penalty snaps, a measure of its efficiency. Success Rate measures how often an NU play gained 50% or more of the yards it needed on a first down, 70% or more of the yards it needed on second down, or 100% or more of the yards it needed on third or fourth down. An Explosive Play is any designed run that gains more than 12 yards and any designed pass that gains more than 16 yards. A Havoc Play Allowed is any tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception, pass break-up or batted ball NU allows.
Haarberg left this game with five fumbles, one more than Sims on the season, but has recovered four of them, whereas only one of Sims’ was recovered. Turnover luck makes a big difference in how we view players.
Making this, technically, both a “successful” play and a havoc play, LOL