TENDENCIES: 2023 First-Half Offense

The massive charts of numbers are BACK

Running back Gabe Ervin. Photo courtesy Nebraska Athletics.

Glossary of Terms¹

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Bye weeks are often a chance for programs to detach from the week-to-week grind of game prep, take big-picture analysis of what’s worked on the field, and make adjustments to scheme or personnel. That NU’s staff probably spent last week in evaluation mode — and that Nebraska’s bye week comes at the exact halfway point of Matt Rhule’s first season — makes it a good time for the newsletter to also take a step back and draw some conclusions from the data collected from the first half of the season.

I’ve blocked out some percentages on both the usage and success of Nebraska’s overall performance, personnel, formations, pre-snap operation, play distribution, run and pass game operational specifics, and run and pass game concepts in the first two columns, in red and gray. To the right of that, where I have the data I’ve also provided the usage rates of Nebraska’s previous two offenses (led by Scott Frost and Mark Whipple) and Rhule and coordinator Marcus Satterfield’s attacks at Temple, Baylor and South Carolina for comparison to what both the Huskers and this staff have done in the past.

Some of the charts/numbers had to get pretty small, but if you click on the individual graphic it should bring it up for closer viewing.

Overall Performance

Yikes! These numbers don’t paint a rosy picture: Bad at efficiently gaining yards, worse at converting those yards into points, and getting significantly fewer explosive plays per game than negative plays. The offensive success rate would be the worst for a Husker team since 2009, the Zac Lee-led team that lost 15-16 to Virginia Tech, 7-9 to Iowa State and 12-13 to Texas. The Huskers are getting less than 5 yards on first down over 60% of the time, and their averaged money down is third-and-8.4. When backed up in those passing downs (any second-and-8 or longer or third-and-5 or longer), they’re converting about a quarter of the time. This is a team often forcing itself into long yardage a lot with almost no ability to pick up big gains.

One bright spot: In short yardage, it’s generally been pretty good at converting. I’ll take it!

Personnel

The biggest difference so far this season in personnel² is NU’s increased use of heavier packages. NU is spending just over half its snaps with multiple tight ends/fullbacks on the field, with no other iterations of Nebraska’s or Rhule’s/Satterfield’s recent offenses having been over 44.9%. The 2023 team is still predominantly playing in 11 personnel, but the rate is certainly much closer to 50-50 than it was under Frost or Whipple — though lower than what Satterfield did at S.C. One other notable difference is the lack of 10 personnel (true four-receiver sets) from the new staff; they were heavily used at Temple, Baylor, and S.C. but have only shown up for a handful of snaps at Nebraska. That’s probably due to the respective receiver talent at the programs, as all three had future NFL players and Nebraska … does not. The Huskers’ four best receiving options likely include tight ends Nate Boerkircher and Thomas Fidone, but that will be something to watch in future seasons as the receiver talent improves.

As for what’s worked … NU’s I formation personnels (21 and 22 personnel) have been Nebraska’s most successful groupings and the only two significantly over the overall success rate, though that’s largely off the strength of the Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech games. Michigan and Illinois held those two groupings to just two successful plays out of 11 total snaps. It will be interesting to see how the I-formation works the further we get into the Big Ten and its physical defenses.

Alignment

NU has obviously been getting under center more than the last two offensive systems, and is at about the same rate as Rhule did at Temple. Satterfield largely didn’t run any pistol alignments at Temple or S.C. but has thrown it in as an alignment with Nebraska.

He’s also used trips more than the previous staffs, who were closer to even doubles and trips usage. Trips is generally thought to be an alignment that is easier to scheme receivers open with, as opposed to doubles being more a “balance the field and let my receivers win one-on-one matchups” system. Which tracks with NU’s level of receiver talent this year. He’s also not used much quads (four eligibles to the same side), though has increased the rate a bit since Heinrich Haarberg entered the lineup.

In terms of specialty alignments, Satterfield has never used empty, unbalanced or two-back shotgun alignments much and isn’t here. The I-formation has been used a notable amount, but more as a situational package than a basis for the offense — and has been more successful than NU’s overall average. His use of stacked, bunched or condensed receivers (other alignments thought to aid receivers in getting open) is higher than his past stops, which, again, tracks with the wide-outs the Huskers are rolling out this year.

Pre-Snap Operation

As expected, the Huskers are almost always huddling, in line with how Rhule played at Temple and how Satterfield operated at South Carolina. In a very small sample size — almost always at the end of a half or game — when NU has run no-huddle, they’ve actually been super successful, but two of the unsuccessful plays were also interceptions. But we have fewer than 20 total snaps of fast tempo plays, so it isn’t really a big enough piece of data to draw any meaningful conclusions from.