THE FIELD: 2023 Non-Conference
Previews of Nebraska's games against Colorado, Northern Illinois, and Louisiana Tech
GLOSSARY OF TERMS1
Colorado
Saturday, Sept. 9
11:00 AM CT
TV: FOX
OVERALL
Record: 1-0 (0-0 Pac-12)
Overall SP+ Ranking: 82nd
Overall FEI Ranking: 101st
Overall FPI Ranking: 71st
Net Adjusted Yards Per Play: 0.94 (30th)
Net Adjusted Points Per Drive: 0.25 (45th)
Net 20+ Yard Plays Per Game: 2.0
If you pay even the slightest attention to college football outside of NU, I don’t need to tell you what Colorado did last week: Media sensation Deion Sanders went on the road with his roster of microwaved transfers and beat last year’s ranked national runner-up, TCU. It typically takes a few weeks into the season for statistical models to accumulate enough data to factor out the preseason projections, so don’t read too closely into the numbers up top: Colorado is likely much higher than a 70-100 ranked team.
How much better is still up in the air, I think. While their offense was very successful against TCU, their defense gave just about as much yardage back, and some of the underlying metrics view the Buffaloes to have caught some pretty fortunate breaks. Maybe they’re good? Maybe we look up at the end of the season and TCU is 7-5 and playing in the Liberty Bowl and this game has a much different context?2 Who knows. I think all we can really say definitively right now is that CU is at least a little better than they were projected to be.
OFFENSE
STATS
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Offensive Rating: 56th
FEI Offensive Rating: 88th
FPI Offensive Rating: 20th
Baseline Stats
Adjusted Yards Per Play: 7.7 (13th)
Adjusted Points Per Drive: 3.75 (16th)
20+ Plays Per Game: 7.0 (24th)
Money Down Efficiency
3rd Down Conversions: 60.0% (15th)
4th Down Aggressiveness: 2.0 attempts per game (41st)
Rushing
Rushing Attempts Per Game: 34.0 (69th)
Rushing Yards Per Game: 55.0 (121st)
Rushing Yards Per Attempt: 1.62 (125th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Per Game: 0.0 (92nd)
Passing
Passing Attempts Per Game: 47.0 (6th)
Passing Yards Per Game: 510.0 (2nd)
Passing Yards Per Attempt: 10.9 (17th)
20+ Yard Pass Plays Per Game: 7.0 (11th)
Colorado has already seen its offense’s regard in all the statistical models skyrocket after just one week, especially in FPI, and the per-play and per-drive metrics are all great. What remains to be seen is if the strong performance in the opening game was a reflection of the Buffaloes quality or some combination of small sample size, circumstance, and TCU possibly not being good. Schematically, CU is a pretty traditional Air Raid attack under offensive coordinator Sean Lewis (a former Nebraska-Omaha assistant), who cut his teeth under spread-passing maestro Dino Babers at Bowling Green and Syracuse. The Buffs don’t have much interest in running the ball, and they were not good at it against the Horned Frogs.
POSITIONS
Quarterback
Shedeur Sanders, third-year junior
Sanders was hyper-efficient in his debut at the FBS level, throwing for a school record 510 yards with an adjusted completion percentage of 83.0%. The Colorado offense primarily seemed to utilize the Air Raid, open formation passing game for short completions, where Sanders dominated. Twenty-nine of his 47 attempts came behind the line or within the first 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and he went 29-for-29 on those throws. Insane. He also wasn’t totally just dink-and-dunking, with the depth of his average target ranking 38th nationally in Week 1. He was especially effective downfield up the seam, where he was 8-for-10 for 169 yards and a score. So most of their attack is underneath stuff, but he showed a willingness throw it down the field, too, especially to the middle of the field.
A few things to note: (A) 278 yards of his passing total came on yards after catch, an unsustainable amount that will be cleaned up in future weeks with better tackling. Even if he’s that efficient underneath again, that efficiency turning into so much YAC is a huge improbability to happen again at any point in the season. (B) Despite the quick-throw offense, Sanders had one of the highest times to release in the country last week, indicating how long he is taking from when he receives the ball to when he throws a pass.3 Sometimes a player’s time to throw is high because they’re creating Mahomes-ian magic with longer scramble-around dropbacks — and maybe Sanders is one of them? — but it more often means someone isn’t making decisions or reads quickly in the structure of the offense and is holding the ball, making them vulnerable to mistakes or pass rush. And, (C) Sanders had one of the highest rates of any QB in the country in Week 1 in the percentage of a defense’s pressures against him that turned into a sack. It could just be small-sample size theater, but when he didn’t get the ball out fast and had to create second-platform throws, his pocket movement wasn’t effective against TCU.
In the running game, Sanders is a good athlete but rarely participates in designed runs, with no non-sack carries in the opener.
Running Backs
Sy’Veon Wilkerson, third-year junior
Anthony Hankerson, second-year sophomore
Dylan Edwards, first-year freshman
Wilkerson — a Jackson State transfer — and Hankerson saw the field the most on run downs, collecting 22 of the Buffaloes' 28 rushes to running backs. But, in the pass-heavy spread system, the freshman scatback Edwards — who was pretty heavily recruited by the previous Nebraska staff — outsnapped them both and outplayed them both, finishing the day as the team’s leading receiver and scoring three touchdowns. Edwards was explosive and hard to tackle, and he absolutely eviscerated TCU linebackers in coverage, catching all four of his targets when matched on an LB for a combined 131 yards. NU’s second level sticking with him in coverage and stopping him at the catch point will be a huge part of the game.
Receivers/Tight Ends
X: Travis Hunter, second-year sophomore
Z: Xavier Weaver, third-year junior
Slot: Jimmy Horn Jr., third-year junior
Y: Michael Harrison, third-year junior
Hunter got a lot of deserved pub for his Ironman performance on offense and defense, but his effectiveness as a receiver was a bit of a smokescreen. While he did top 100 yards, he needed 14 targets to do it, with 43 of his 119 yards coming on one snap. He also only averaged about 2.6 yards after each catch, 339th out of 466 qualified players nationally in Week 1. Horn, similarly, needed 13 targets to get over 100 yards. They’re definitely both big-play threats who will convert a lot of low-depth targets into catches, but there were also lots of plays last Saturday where they got the ball in a shallow spot on the field and did nothing with it. Weaver was actually probably their best receiver in Week 1, turning six targets into 118 yards while working more downfield routes.
Weaver is an outside-only receiver and Horn is a slot-only receiver, but Hunter mixed in about evenly outside and in the slot. Colorado played with four receivers on the field on 35% of their snaps, also subbing in Tar’Varish Dawson Jr. and Javon Antonio. When the Buffaloes did use a tight end, it was almost exclusively Harrison, who didn’t produce much Saturday.
Offensive Line
LT: Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan, third-year junior
LG: Jack Bailey, fifth-year senior
C: Van Wells, second-year sophomore
RG: Jack Wilty, third-year sophomore
RT: Savion Washington, sixth-year senior
TCU had its way with the Colorado line on Saturday, with the Horned Frogs getting seven tackles for loss and five sacks. Per PFF, the tackles played pretty well, but the interior of the line gave up a combined nine pressures and four hurries. Look for NU to blitz the A and B gaps heavily against the Buffs.
DEFENSE
STATS
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Defensive Rating: 113th
FEI Defensive Rating: 112th
FPI Defensive Rating: 75th
Baseline Stats
Adjusted Yards Per Play Allowed: 6.76 (73rd)
Adjusted Points Per Drive Allowed: 3.5 (83rd)
20+ Plays Allowed Per Game: 5.0 (80th)
Havoc Plays Per Game: 6.0
Money Down Efficiency
3rd Down Conversions Against: 62.50% (124th)
Run Defense
Rushing Attempts Against Per Game: 37.0 (87th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 262.0 (128th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 7.08 (130th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Allowed Per Game: 2.0 (96th)
Pass Defense
Passing Attempts Against Per Game: 42.0 (112th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 279.0 (104th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 6.6 (71st)
20+ Yard Pass Allowed Plays Per Game: 3.0 (66th)
If you want to get optimistic about the game, start here. The Buffs put together one of the worst defensive performances in the country last week, with TCU getting about 7 yards per play when they wanted to run and 6 yards when they wanted to pass. The Buffs’ already bad data is also being propped up by some redzone variance; if not for two interceptions inside the 5-yard-line last week on drives in which TCU knifed down the field, Colorado would have surrendered 56 points. Also, all six of its havoc plays against the Horned Frogs were pass break-ups, interceptions, or fumbles, meaning it did not record a single tackle for loss. Anybody want to hit the over on Gabe Ervin rushing yards?
Positions
Edge Defender
Jordan Domineck, sixth-year senior
Derrick McLendon, sixth-year senior
Both edge rushers are experienced graduate transfers from Power 5 programs, Domineck from Georgia Tech and Arkansas and McClendon from Florida State. Both were pretty middling against the run, but the duo did combine for six pressures against TCU, so they seem to have some ability to rush the passer.
Interior Line
NOSE: Shane Cokes, sixth-year senior
3-TECH: Leonard Payne Jr., sixth-year senior
The interior guys are graduate transfer mercenaries, also, though they’re coming in from Dartmouth and Fresno State. Payne was one of PFF’s worst-graded interior lineman at defending the run in Week 1, not recording a tackle in 56 snaps. Cokes did at least hold up a little bit in the A gaps. The average depth of Colorado’s interior linemen’s tackles was 2.7 yards down the field, meaning the TCU line was pushing them almost three yards off the ball on the average play. NU should probably be looking to exploit these two.
Linebackers
MIKE: Marvin Ham II, third-year junior
SAM: LaVonta Bentley, sixth-year senior
Neither backer made much of an impact in the running game, largely getting blocked up and making a combined 12 tackles in 153 snaps. Bentley was actually the team’s most effective pass rusher, recording a team-leading five pressures in just seven pass rush attempts. NU will need to look for him on passing downs. Neither was effective in coverage, allowing completions on all five times they were targeted.
Nickel
Myles Slusher, fourth-year senior
You might remember Slusher from recruiting, when he picked Arkansas over Nebraska on Signing Day in 2019. He’s now with the Buffs! Colorado played in nickel personnel almost exclusively against spread-out TCU, with Slusher playing 77 of 80 possible snaps. He’s vulnerable against the pass, giving up five completions Saturday, and wasn’t really a factor in the running game, either. TCU targeted him on passes more than anyone else on Colorado’s defense.
Safeties
Shilo Sanders, fifth-year senior
Trevor Woods, third-year junior
How bad Colorado was at defense Saturday in one stat: Sanders was Colorado’s leading tacker, and the average depth at which he made a tackle was 29.0 yards down the field. Not great!4 CU played with split safeties on a majority of its snaps, but when one did come down into the box it was typically Sanders. Woods is the better player in coverage; he picked off a pass Saturday and forced two other incompletions on five targets and was actually graded higher in coverage by PFF than Hunter. Woods is a solid player.
Corners
Travis Hunter, second-year sophomore
Omarion Cooper, third-year junior
If I insinuated Hunter’s performance on offense was slightly overrated, it absolutely wasn’t on defense. TCU — inexplicably — targeted Hunter nine times, tied with Slusher for the most of anyone on the team. He broke up three of them, intercepted another in the end zone and allowed just three completions all game, while playing 65 snaps on offense. He walked in the door of Colorado’s facility and immediately became one of the best FBS corners in the country.
Cooper, a highly ranked recruit who started seven games over two years for Florida State before transferring in — was almost equally as impressive. TCU took several deep shots against him — his 26.0 average depth of target against was 15th nationally among 621 qualified players in Week 1 — but he allowed just one catch for no yardage. In Hunter, Cooper and Woods, the Buffs do have some guys who can cover.
Special Teams
Field Position
Offense Average Starting Field Position: 78.6 yards to go (95th)
Defense Average Starting Field Position: 62.3 yards to go (95th)
Explosive Plays
Return Touchdowns: 0
Return Touchdowns Allowed: 0
Blocked Kicks: 0
Own Kicks Blocked: 1
Kicking
Field Goal Percentage: 50.0% (74th)
Extra Point Percentage: 100% (1st)
Touchback Percentage: 14.29% (110th)
Specialists
Place Kicker: Jace Feely, third-year sophomore
Punter: Mark Vassett, third-year junior
Kickoffs: Jace Feely, third-year sophomore/Cristiano Palazzo, third-year sophomore
Returner: Jimmy Horn Jr., third-year junior
Colorado used two place kickers Saturday, with Feely — the son of longtime NFL kicker Jay Feely — not converting an attempt that was blocked when it looked like he wasn’t ready for the ball to be snapped. One notable thing: On seven kickoff attempts, Colorado got a touchback on just one, with TCU returning five of the kicks for 37.7 yards on average, contributing to CU’s terrible field position numbers. Colorado was not sharp on special teams in its opener; maybe a spot to see if Matt Rhule’s reinvigorated focus on that side of the ball can produce a big play? Would be the spot for it.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Saturday, Sept. 16
6:00 PM CT
TV: FS1
OVERALL
Record: 1-0 (0-0 MAC)
Overall SP+ Ranking: 102nd
Overall FEI Ranking: 105th
Overall FPI Ranking: 90th
Net Adjusted Yards Per Play: +0.10 (49th)
Net Adjusted Points Per Drive: +0.19 (47th)
Net 20+ Yard Plays Per Game: 0.0
NIU has been a non-conference opponent of Nebraska a couple times in recent years, last coming to Lincoln in 2019 for a 44-8 loss that was one of the few uncomplicated victories of Scott Frost’s tenure and beating Mike Riley in a 2017 game that felt like the death knell for his time at the school in Week 3. The Huskies might have just cost another P5 coach their job last week, scoring a 27-24 upset over Boston College and the embattled Jeff Hafley in their opener. The Huskies will get a tune-up in their home opener against Southern Illinois before heading to Lincoln for Rhule’s home debut.
Same caveats about the statistical models needing more data to fully flush out the preseason predictions here; NIU is probably much better than the 100s the models are suggesting right now. They’ve already proven they can beat a major-conference school, so this won’t be a walk-over for Nebraska.
OFFENSE
STATS
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Offensive Rating: 82nd
FEI Offensive Rating: 99th
FPI Offensive Rating: 38th
Baseline Stats
Adjusted Yards Per Play: 4.63 (72nd)
Adjusted Points Per Drive: 2.10 (45th)
20+ Plays Per Game: 4.0 (88th)
Money Down Efficiency
Third Down Conversions: 58.82% (22nd)
Fourth Down Aggressiveness: 0.0 attempts per game (T-84th)
Rushing
Rushing Attempts Per Game: 48.0 (12th)
Rushing Yards Per Game: 166.0 (58th)
Rushing Yards Per Attempt: 3.46 (94th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Per Game: 1.0 (50th)
Passing
Passing Attempts Per Game: 29.0 (81st)
Passing Yards Per Game: 172.0 (97th)
Passing Yards Per Attempt: 5.9 (100th)
20+ Yard Pass Plays Per Game: 2.0 (84th)
NU will be facing an offense with a similar philosophy to its own, one that wants to pound the rock and with lots of heavy personnel, control the clock, and pass at opportune times. Head coach Thomas Hammock — who was in his debut season the last time these two teams met — is a former tailback at the school and coached running backs for Brett Bielema and Paul Chryst at Wisconsin and later for the NFL’s Baltimore Ravens. Get ready for a heavy dose of power football.
It wasn’t super effective last week as Boston College limited their efficiency, but a Power 5 program against a MAC school is usually a physical overmatch. The ESPN FPI metric is way, way out ahead of the other services, and seems to use less preseason data than the other two services. Their statistical profile also doesn’t seem to suggest a top-40 offense in any way, so I’m gonna say that’s just a fluke.
POSITIONS
Quarterback
Rocky Lombardi, fifth-year senior
Husker fans will remember Lombardi as the starter for Michigan State in the infamous 9-6 snow game in 2018. He transferred to the Huskies in 2020, having a good year in 2021 before an injury cut his 2022 season short at four games. Over more than 800 dropbacks over now six years, Lombardi has generally proven himself to be a fine quarterback, one who will complete about 55% of his passes and doesn’t often put the ball in harm’s way (4.0% of his career dropbacks have been turnover-worthy plays) but also isn’t bringing anything special to the table himself, either. He seemed to be reversing that a bit last year with a red-hot start before the injury, with the highest completion percentage of his career paired with his highest depth of target, as well as seven “big-time throws”5 per PFF in just 80 dropbacks. So there is some high-quality play in there somewhere. But if everything is going right for NIU, they won’t be asking Lombardi to do much.
One thing to note: NIU rarely asked Lombardi to work the sidelines in the opener, with just eight of his attempts coming outside the hashes. He had 20 between the hashes. Look for NU to prioritize the middle of the field to stop that play-action game.
Running Backs
Gavin Williams, third-year sophomore
Antario Brown, third-year junior
This duo split the carries evenly but didn’t look particularly impressive in Week 1, forcing a combined three missed tackles. Brown demonstrated more yards after contact than Williams, but neither really did anything good. Brown has primarily been used to the edges, with 6 of his 16 carries coming outside of the A gap, while Williams is the inside hammer. Brock Lampe will also work in at fullback and got three carries in the opener, with nearly four yards after contact per touch. NIU was dead-even in usage of gap scheme to zone scheme runs but has heavily favored running behind the right side of its line, with 27 of its 47 designed carries headed that way.
Receivers/Tight Ends
X: Davis Patterson, fifth-year senior
Z: Trayvon Rudolph, fourth-year junior
Slot: Kacper Rutkiewicz, fifth-year senior
Y: Chris Carter, fourth-year junior
H: Grayson Barnes, third-year junior
F: Izuchukwu Ozoh, third-year sophomore
Rutkiewicz, a transfer from Illinois State, is your quintessential small, agile slot guy who catches a bunch of shallow passes and is impossible to tackle, infuriating everyone. He tied for the team lead in the opener with 46 yards — with an absolutely hilarious 3.8 average depth of target — and forced four missed tackles on five catches. Can’t wait to watch our LBs try to corral this guy. The two on the outside are Patterson, a transfer from Division II, and Rudolph, neither of whom did anything of note against Boston College.
The Huskies had three tight ends play over 27 snaps, plus worked in the fullback Lampe for 39 snaps. That’s heavy personnel, baby. Carter is probably the best player on the offense, catching 2 of his 3 targets for 46 yards and having a team-high run-blocking grade from PFF in 30 run-blocking snaps in Week 1. Good player. Barnes is more of a receiver but wasn’t particularly effective, while Ozoh only ran a route on four of his 27 snaps and is in there to block.
Offensive Line
LT: Evan Buss, third-year junior/Evan Malcore, second-year freshman
LG: J.J. Lippe, fourth-year junior
C: Pete Nygra, third-year sophomore
RG: John Champe, third-year junior
RT: Nolan Potter, fifth-year senior
Physically overmatched against a P5 opponent, the NIU line allowed just five pressures and zero sacks, with Nygra, Potter, and Champe finishing with PFF blocking grades over 80 (considered good), with Lippe only slightly behind. The run blocking was less effective but understandable considering who they played. If you want a weakness on the line, Buss was less effective at LT and has been subbing with Malcore. But overall, Huskies have a solid unit up front, especially in pass pro.
DEFENSE
STATS
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Defensive Rating: 122nd
FEI Defensive Rating: 115th
FPI Defensive Rating: 56th
Baseline Stats
Adjusted Yards Per Play Allowed: 4.52 (22nd)
Adjusted Points Per Drive Allowed: 1.91 (51st)
20+ Plays Allowed Per Game: 4.0 (65th)
Havoc Plays Per Game: 4.0
Money Down Efficiency
3rd Down Conversions Against: 35.29% (69th)
Run Defense
Rushing Attempts Against Per Game: 28.0 (32nd)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 146.0 (90th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 5.21 (112th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Allowed Per Game: 0.0 (50th)
Pass Defense
Passing Attempts Against Per Game: 38.0 (104th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 168.0 (52nd)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 4.4 (19th)
20+ Yard Pass Allowed Plays Per Game: 3.0 (66th)
Preseason models had heinous predictions for NIU’s defense, but the Huskies held a P5 team (though one with a bad offense) to under 5 yards per play and wiped Boston College’s passing efficiency off the field, surrendering just 4.4 yards per attempt. Pretty good! BC was able to move the ball on the ground pretty easily but didn’t utilize it much, for whatever reason (I didn’t watch any of this game). FPI is again way out ahead on NIU, though 56th for the defense feels closer to correct with the other underlying numbers. The Huskies were legit good against the pass in Week 1.
Positions
Edge Defender
Raishein Thomas, third-year junior
Roy Williams, second-year sophomore
Thomas is a solid pass rusher and gave Boston College problems, getting four total pressures and a sack, with 13.4% of his pass rushes turning into a pressure, a team high. He also made nine tackles or assist tackles against the run, which is great for a defensive lineman. NU will be circling him up front. Williams was solid against the run but didn’t do much against the pass and subbed out with a few other players.
Interior Line
James Ester, fifth-year senior
Devonte O’Malley, third-year junior
The interior spots were really a four-man rotation with Cade Haberman and Skyler Gill-Howard also playing big snaps. Ester and O’Malley were both graded poorly against the run and slightly better as pass rushers. The subs weren’t much better. The interior seems like a weakness that BC didn’t fully exploit.
Linebackers
DaRon Gilbert, fourth-year senior
Jaden Dolphin, third-year junior
Gilbert graded out as NIU’s second-best pass defender against BC, and Dolphin was also solid. BC targeted the trio just one time, which wasn’t completed. Each was productive rushing the passer, too, getting a pair of pressures. But they had trouble against the run, with Gilbert missing half his tackles on running plays and Dolphin a third. Part of the reason Boston College was able to have so much success on the ground.
Nickel
Jashon Prophete, third-year junior
Prophete was a little leaky in pass coverage, allowing three receptions on five targets to BC, but didn’t allow a yard of YAC or give up a completion longer than 11 yards and didn’t miss a tackle in run defense either.
Safeties
CJ Brown, fourth-year senior
Nate Valcarcel, third-year junior
Both NIU safeties were rock solid against the run, with neither missing a tackle in 10 attempts. Brown was the roller into the box more than Valcarcel, but both spent time in the box and deep in a free-safety position. They were both graded poorly against the pass. Also notable is that NIU rolled through several safeties, with Cyrus McGarrell and Devin Lafayette also playing over 20 snaps.
Corners
Javaughn Byrd, third-year junior
Jacob Finley, second-year freshman
Byrd, a third-year starter, was solid in coverage against BC while being targeted seven times, allowing just two completions for 10 yards and snagging an interception. PFF graded him as the best player on the defense in Week 1. Finley on the other side was the only secondary player to give up more than 40 yards but graded out as NIU’s best run defending corner.
Special Teams
Field Position
Offense average starting field position: 77.2 yards to go (84th)
Defense average starting field position: 69.1 yards to go (69th)
Explosive Plays
Return Touchdowns: 0
Return Touchdowns Allowed: 0
Blocked Kicks: 0
Own Kicks Blocked: 0
Kicking
Field Goal Percentage: N/A
Extra Point Percentage: 100% (1st)
Touchback Percentage: 0.0% (117th)
Specialists
Kicker: Jake Seibert, third-year sophomore
Punter: Tom Foley, fourth-year junior
KOS: Kanon Woodill, third-year sophomore
KR/PR: Trayvon Rudolph, fourth-year junior/Kacper Rutkiewicz, fourth-year senior
Seibert is a former Ohio State kicker; he was perfect on extra points in Week 1 but didn’t attempt a field goal and only attempted two while at OSU. Foley has put 4 of his 6 punts inside the 20. Rudolph handles kickoff returns, while Rutkiewicz is back on punts, where he’s fair-caught all of his attempts so far. Woodill has yet to reach the end zone on a kickoff, so Nebraska should have a shot at some returns.
Louisiana Tech
Saturday, Sept. 23
Time TBA
TV: TBA
OVERALL
Record: 1-1 (1-0 Conference USA)
Overall SP+ Ranking: 109th
Overall FEI Ranking: 116th
Overall FPI Ranking: 117th
Net Adjusted Yards Per Play: -0.65 (66th)
Net Adjusted Points Per Drive: -0.60 (60th)
Net 20+ Yard Plays Per Game: +2.5
Again caveats for the sample size and all, but the Bulldogs look like they could possibly be the worst team on Nebraska’s schedule, depending on how bad things get at Northwestern. Louisiana Tech has actually already played twice, winning a close game against conference-mate Florida International in Week 0 and then getting their doors blown off last week on the road at SMU, and will play two more games before heading to Lincoln.
The Bulldogs’ offense has probably been a little better than their defense so far, but neither has been good. About the one thing that they’ve been good at is big play prevention on defense and an efficient passing attack.
OFFENSE
STATS
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Offensive Rating: 80th
FEI Offensive Rating: 119th
FPI Offensive Rating: 119th
Baseline Stats
Adjusted Yards Per Play: 5.21 (56th)
Adjusted Points Per Drive: 1.26 (77th)
20+ Plays Per Game: 4.5 (71st)
Money Down Efficiency
Third Down Conversions: 43.33% (57th)
Fourth Down Aggressiveness: 1.5 attempts per game (42nd)
Rushing
Rushing Attempts Per Game: 31.5 (89th)
Rushing Yards Per Game: 71.0 (117th)
Rushing Yards Per Attempt: 2.25 (116th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Per Game: 0.5 (91st)
Passing
Passing Attempts Per Game: 38.5 (29th)
Passing Yards Per Game: 287.0 (40th)
Passing Yards Per Attempt: 7.5 (63rd)
20+ Yard Pass Plays Per Game: 4.0 (46th)
The Bulldogs are going to be another spread, quick-pass team, though not quite to the extent Colorado is, and they run the ball a little more and better than the Buffs. Their numbers were good after Week 0 but are being dragged down by a poor game against SMU in which they gave up seven sacks.
POSITIONS
Quarterback
Hank Bachmeier, fourth-year senior
Bachmeier started his career at Boise State, where he was one of the biggest recruits in school history, and saw the field immediately as a true freshman in 2019. Things appeared on track through his junior year in 2021, when he was one of the 30 best quarterbacks in the country: 76.1% adjusted completion percentage, 20 touchdowns against eight turnover-worthy plays, 21 big time throws on 7.6 yards per attempt. But things fell apart last year; he started poorly, then was injured for the season in the fourth game. Using his COVID year, he transferred to Louisiana Tech. He’s been sharp so far, with what would be a career-high 77.0% adjusted completion percentage.
Pressure will be a huge factor vs. Bachmeier: When kept clean, he’s completed an adjusted 80.3% of his passes, but that number dips almost 20 percentage points when he is pressured and has led to eight sacks in two games. Bachmeier is one of the worst QBs in the country at escaping pressure, taking a sack on 25.8% of the times the defense gets pressure. He’s not much of an athlete and won’t be a running threat.
Running Backs
Charvis Thornton, fourth-year junior
Keith Willis Jr., first-year freshman
Keldric Moody, third-year junior
These three have split backfield snaps and carries about evenly so far this year, with Thornton having been the most effective by far, with 56 yards after contact (40 combined for the other two) and forcing three missed tackles (0 for the other two). LaTech’s spread system has been about 60/40 zone to gap scheme, and they have hammered running in the B gaps of their line (the space between the guard and tackle); 17 of their carries have hit that gap — 12 to the left side — with their combined other gaps getting a combined 18 carries.
Receivers/Tight Ends
X: Kyle Maxwell, fourth-year junior
Z: Cyrus Allen, second-year sophomore
Slot: Smoke Harris, fifth-year senior
Slot: Tru Edwards, fourth-year junior
Y: Nate Jones, third-year junior
H: Ryan Rivera, fifth-year senior
Harris is the headliner here and will be one of the better receivers NU plays this season. In his sixth season of eligibility, the 5’7 slot finished with 733 and 620 yards in the last two years, respectively, largely just by catching everything that’s thrown to him underneath. He’s already converted 18 of his 21 targets this season into catches and has 201 yards. Harris is a burly, thick dude who will break some tackles after the catch.
No other wide receiver on the team has more than eight targets and have mostly just been fine. The tight end Jones has probably been the second most efficient receiving threat, converting 9 of his 14 targets, but he’s averaging just 4.0 yards per catch.
Offensive Line
LT: Dakota White, third-year junior
LG: Bert Hale, third-year junior
C: Abraham Delfin, sixth-year senior
RG: Jerren Gilbert, third-year junior/Biron Rossell, fifth-year senior
RT: Carson Bruno, third-year junior
The Bulldogs’ line has been overmatched against FIU and SMU so far in both run and pass protection. La. Tech has surrendered 27 pressures in two games, with the center Delfin responsible for nine alone. Remember what I said about Bachmeier and pressure? The Huskers’ pass rushers have to eat here. They’ve also all be low-graded in run blocking.
DEFENSE
STATS
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Defensive Rating: 130th
FEI Defensive Rating: 107th
FPI Defensive Rating: 77th
Baseline Stats
Adjusted Yards Per Play Allowed: 5.85 (60th)
Adjusted Points Per Drive Allowed: 1.86 (50th)
20+ Plays Allowed Per Game: 2.5 (27th)
Havoc Plays Per Game: 9.0
Money Down Efficiency
3rd Down Conversions Against: 33.33% (56th)
Run Defense
Rushing Attempts Against Per Game: 35.5 (80th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 193.5 (112th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 5.45 (114th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Allowed Per Game: 1.0 (50th)
Pass Defense
Passing Attempts Against Per Game: 26.0 (34th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 126.0 (20th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 4.8 (36th)
20+ Yard Pass Allowed Plays Per Game: 1.5 (46th)
If Colorado isn’t the worst defense on NU’s schedule, Louisiana Tech probably is. They’ve been almost as bad as the Buffs against the run, though have generated more havoc with five tackles for loss. They’ve also been marginally good at preventing big plays, though that doesn’t matter much if you give up chunk gains. The passing data looks promising, but then you look closer and see that that’s largely because teams haven’t passed much against them with running being so easy.
Positions
Edge Defender
Mykol Clark, fourth-year junior
J’Dan Burnett, third-year sophomore
Burnett is one of the more dangerous players on this defense, with a good pass-rushing profile of six pressures on a nearly 11% pressure rate on dropbacks and a 27% win rate against linemen, both highest on the team for regular contributors. Burnett is light for an edge player at under 246 pounds, but is a solid pass-rushing threat NU should watch out for. Clark has given LaTech nothing so far, with zero pressures in over 40 attempts. He’s been completely stymied. Both players grade out as average against the run.
Interior Line
Deshon Hall, Jr., fourth-year senior
Rason Williams, fourth-year senior
Hall has stood up well in the middle of the line, recording six tackles and registering a “stop” (a PFF stat that measures a tackle that keep the offense from having a successful play) on 10% of his total snaps. Williams is much worse against the run, with just one tackle in 41 snaps played but has been the second-most productive pass rusher on the team behind Burnett. The Bulldogs don’t really line up with either tackle in the A gap frequently, so there’s not really a nose and a 3-tech as much as it is split tackles.
Linebackers
Brevin Randle, fifth-year senior
Jeslord Boateng, fifth-year senior
Another Michigan State transfer, Boateng is a very strong run defender and has made seven tackles considered “stops” through two weeks, which is tied for sixth nationally among all linebackers. He’s been solid in coverage, too, having been targeted just once by opponents and with a pass breakup. If Boateng is a good player … Randle is not, missing nearly a quarter of his tackles and having surrendered five completions already, and also committing two pass interference penalties through two games.
Nickel
Michael Richard, first-year freshman
The Bulldogs play in nickel personnel on about 60% of their snaps. He’s a good tackler out of the overhang, pretty remarkable for a true freshman! — and has gotten a pressure as a pass-rusher, so LaTech will use him on some slot blitzes. But teams have gone after Richard through the air in two games, with him having the second-most targets against on the team.
Safeties
Cecil Singleton Jr., fifth-year senior
Myles Heard, fifth-year senior
LaTech’s safeties both grade out as fine pass defenders but poor run stoppers. Singleton in particular has only allowed one catch all year, and has an interception. But each has missed nearly a quarter of their tackles through two games of the season and aren’t as good against the run. The Bulldogs use a split-safety approach, with Singleton and Heard both seeing times in the box and as a deep safety.
Corners
Willie Roberts, fourth-year senior
Cedric Woods, fourth-year junior
All the bad things I’ve said about the Bulldogs’ defense so far don’t apply to Roberts. He’s been one of the most effective corners in the country so far this year; in nine targets over two games, he has allowed one catch for one yard, broken up four passes and forced six incompletions overall. PFF currently has Roberts graded as a better coverage defender than Travis Hunter of Colorado and a top-five corner nationally. Woods, on the other side, is a lot more gettable, having surrendered a catch on 75% of his targets and committing two pass-interference penalties in two games.
Special Teams
Field Position
Offense Average Starting Field Position: 73.0 yards to go (60th)
Defense Average Starting Field Position: 71.8 yards to go (54th)
Explosive Plays
Return Touchdowns: 0
Return Touchdowns Allowed: 0
Blocked Kicks: 0
Own Kicks Blocked: 0
Kicking
Field Goal Percentage: 50% (74th)
Extra Point Percentage: 100% (1st)
Touchback Percentage: 100% (1st)
Specialists
K: Jacob Barnes, fourth-year junior/Buck Buchanan, second-year sophomore
P: Blake Ochsendorf, fifth-year senior
KOS: Buck Buchanan, second-year sophomore
KR/PR: Smoke Harris, sixth-year senior
Barnes is their short-range kicker and has converted all of his extra points and 2 of 3 kicks from beyond 40 yards, while Buchanan is 0-for-1 from beyond 50 yards. Buchanan will also handle kickoffs, and is one of the better at it in the country, having kicked the ball out of the back of the end zone on all eight of his attempts this year. Ochsendorf has downed three punts inside the 20.
Glossary: SP+ (by ESPN’s Bill Connelly), FEI (by Football Outsiders’ Brian Fremeau), and FPI (by ESPN’s College Football Power Index) are the three main tempo-adjusted statistical models for college football teams, meant to provide a holistic ranking of a team, an offense or a defense’s overall quality while factoring out tempo of play and stats accumulated during garbage time and factoring in the quality of your opponents. Adjusted yards per play measures the average number of yards gained per snap in all non-garbage time plays, meant to measure how well a team moves the ball or defends per snap. Adjusted points per drive is the average number of points scored by your unit per drive in non-garbage time, meant to measure how well a team turns its possessions into points or prevents the same. A havoc play is defined as any tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup/deflection.
No disrespect to the Liberty Bowl.
Nebraska quarterback Jeff Sims is currently fourth on that list.
Reinforcing this: Woods was No. 2 on the team in tackles.
PFF defines this as a challenging, tight-window throw.