THE FIELD: Maryland
Two teams face off in each's best remaining chance to make a bowl
Glossary of Terms1
vs. Maryland
Saturday, Nov. 11
Time: 11 a.m. CT
TV: Peacock
OVERALL
Record: 5-4 (2-4 Big Ten)
Overall SP+ Ranking: 37th
Overall FEI Ranking: 34th
Overall FPI Ranking: 40th
Net Adjusted Yards Per Play: +0.49 (50th)
Net Adjusted Points Per Drive: +0.61 (36th)
Net 20+ Yard Plays Per Game: 1.76
Turnover Margin: +1 (57th)
Maryland got off to a hot start, blowing past Towson, Charlotte, Virginia, Michigan State, and Indiana by big margins, and was playing Ohio State close through halftime in Columbus. Since then, it’s been freefall: The Terps finished the OSU game losing by 20, got housed by Penn State, and lost to West doormats Northwestern and Illinois in between. Maryland’s last two games are against Michigan and Rutgers on the road, so Saturday will probably be its own best shot to get the sixth win it needs for a bowl. Four-game skid aside, these guys will come out desperate. The advanced metrics would give Maryland a marginal advantage over NU, about 15 to 20 spots higher in all three services, but Nebraska gets the game in Lincoln. This should be about a draw per the pure numbers.
OFFENSE
STATS
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Offensive Rating: 51st
FEI Offensive Rating: 30th
FPI Offensive Rating: 30th
Baseline Stats
Adjusted Yards Per Play: 5.98 (51st)
Adjusted Points Per Drive: 2.61 (37th)
20+ Plays Per Game: 5.2
Turnovers Lost: 12 (55th)
Money Down Efficiency
Third Down Conversions: 44.4% (T-29th)
Fourth Down Aggressiveness: 1.3 attempts per game
Rushing
Rushing Attempts Per Game: 29.1 (122nd)
Rushing Yards Per Game: 117.11 (109th)
Rushing Yards Per Attempt: 4.0 (88th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Per Game: 1.1 (T-73rd)
Passing
Passing Attempts Per Game: 39.2 (11th)
Passing Yards Per Game: 280.8 (27th)
Passing Yards Per Attempt: 7.2 (73rd)
20+ Yard Pass Plays Per Game: 4.1 (24th)
Maryland has produced several solid passing offenses under coach Mike Locksley, and 2023 is no different. The Terps entered the season expecting to have a strong running game behind back Roman Hemby, who ran for 5.3 yards per carry last year, but the ground attack has never materialized. The passing offense is productive, but the production comes off a lot of attempts; the efficiency per pass is actually below average. Regardless, the NU secondary is going to face a lot of pass attempts against a well-repped passing scheme and will have to hold up.
Top Players
Taulia Tagovailoa, quarterback
Tagovailoa has been an efficiency king this year, completing 75.% of his throws adjusted for drops while still pushing the ball downfield with an average depth of target at 8.9 yards. He is 16th in the Power 5 in “big time throws” and has kept his percentage of turnover-worthy plays low. Counting-stat wise, he’s already got nearly 2,500 yards and 21 touchdowns with three games left. Nebraska’s secondary didn’t hold up when it faced the two other good quarterbacks its seen this year, Shedeur Sanders and J.J. McCarthy. The coverage has looked better against a string of dreadful QBs, but it will be tested for real Saturday.
Corey Dyches, tight end
The junior is a “tight end,” but at only 6’2, 215 pounds is basically just a big slot receiver, though he still lines up in-line plenty. He’s been the Terps’ best pass catcher this year, converting 66% of his contested opportunities into catches and is converting 80.4% of his targets overall. He’s got 361 receiving yards on the year. He’s also good after catch, averaging 5.4 YAC. Jeshaun Jones and Kaden Prather are Maryland’s top targets on the outside and are both good players, too.
Corey Bullock, guard
Bullock is the highest graded player on a Maryland line that’s been very solid in pass pro and bad at moving people in the run game. Bullock has allowed just seven total pressures in 306 pass blocking attempts, and tackle Delmar Glaze has allowed just eight in 374 attempts. The Terps have used a lot of linemen this year due to injuries but do have some ability to stop pass-rush.
DEFENSE
STATS
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Defensive Rating: 35th
FEI Defensive Rating: 48th
FPI Defensive Rating: 59th
Baseline Stats
Adjusted Yards Per Play Allowed: 5.49 (44th)
Adjusted Points Per Drive Allowed: 2.01 (47th)
20+ Plays Allowed Per Game: 3.44
Turnovers Gained: 13 (57th)
Money Down Efficiency
Third Down Conversions Against: 34.7% (34th)
Run Defense
Rushing Attempts Against Per Game: 35.0 (57th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 114.67 (28th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 3.28 (20th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Allowed Per Game: 0.44 (10th)
Pass Defense
Passing Attempts Against Per Game: 32.7 (81st)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 232.9 (74th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 7.1 (64th)
20+ Yard Pass Allowed Plays Per Game: 2.7 (36th)
This defense is a bad match-up for Nebraska. Maryland is strong against the run — almost as strong as NU has been this season — and also a top-20 big play prevention unit nationally. Those are basically the two ways Nebraska has moved the ball this year. The Terrapins play a 4-2-5 similar to what Nebraska ran under Erik Chinander. The second level of this D is especially strong, keying its run defense. Maryland, however, is susceptible in pass coverage, with its corners giving up 62.3% and 48.5% completions when targeted — though not a ton of big plays. Moving the ball Saturday may come down to Heinrich Haarberg hitting short and intermediate timing passes.
Top Players
Donnell Brown, Edge Defender
Brown — who transferred in from St. Francis after being a two-time FCS All-American — has been one of the best defensive players in the Big Ten this season and is an NFL prospect. Pro Football Focus grades him as the 15th-best run defender on the edge in the Power 5 this season. He’s less impactful as a pass rusher but still has 18 total pressures and three sacks, so he’ll be a handful for this backup Nebraska offensive line group.
Glendon Miller, Safety
Miller has been the best player in a meh Maryland coverage group. He primarily plays in the slot as Maryland’s nickel, but will also rotate in at the other two safety spots. In 250 snaps, he’s been targeted in pass coverage just 16 times, allowing only 92 total yards. He also has forced three incompletions, has three pass breakups, and has two interceptions, so he can cause plenty of havoc, too. Senior Beau Brade was a 12-game starter last year, entered as honorable mention All-Big Ten this season, and leads the team in tackles, so he’s no slouch, either. The safeties in this back five are better than the corners.
Ruben Hyppolite II, Linebacker
Hyppolite leads a group of Maryland backers in Jaishawn Barham, Fa’Najae Gotay and Caleb Wheatland who are all pretty rock-solid downhill run defenders and tacklers but have little ability to cover the pass.
Special Teams
Field Position
Offense Average Starting Field Position: 68.4 yards to score (19th)
Defense Average Starting Field Position: 71.2 yards to defend (68th)
Explosive Plays
Return Touchdowns: 1
Return Touchdowns Allowed: 0
Blocked Kicks/Punts: 1
Own Kicks/Punts Blocked: 1
Kicking
Field Goal Percentage: 62.5% (110th)
Extra Point Percentage: 97.0% (93rd)
Touchback Percentage: 65.4% (35th)
Specialists
K: Jack Howes
P: Colton Spangler
KOS: Jack Howes
KR/PR: Braeden Wisloski/Jeshaun Jones
Maryland has the 14th-best net average starting field position, largely on the strength of its return units, so NU’s coverage players will have to be on their games. Wisloski has taken back 12 kicks for an average of 33.9 yards and one touchdown, and Jones is solid on punt returns. Both are weapons. The place kicking is very shaky, with six missed field goals and a missed extra point. Though five of those misses have come from over 40 yards.
Glossary: SP+ (by ESPN’s Bill Connelly), FEI (by Football Outsiders’ Brian Fremeau), and FPI (by ESPN’s College Football Power Index) are the three main tempo-, schedule-, and garbage time-adjusted statistical models for college football teams, meant to provide a holistic ranking of a team, an offense or a defense’s overall quality. Adjusted yards per play measures the average number of yards gained per snap in all non-garbage time plays, meant to measure how well a team moves the ball or defends per snap. Adjusted points per drive is the average number of points scored by your unit per drive in non-garbage time, meant to measure how well a team turns its possessions into points or prevents the same. A havoc play is defined as any tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup/deflection.