THE FIELD: Michigan and Illinois

The interior of Nebraska's offensive line is about to be in HELL

Michigan guard Trevor Keegan. Photo courtesy of Michigan Athletics.

Glossary of Terms¹

*Statistics through Week 3 only and do not include Week 4

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Michigan

Saturday, Sept. 30
2:30 p.m. CT
TV: FOX

OVERALL

Record: 4-0 (1-0 Big Ten)
Overall SP+ Ranking: 3rd
Overall FEI Ranking: 4th
Overall FPI Ranking: 14th

Net Adjusted Yards Per Play: 5.34 (1st)
Net Adjusted Points Per Drive: 3.75 (2nd)
Net 20+ Yard Plays Per Game: +2.7
Turnover Margin: -0.33 (81st)

Michigan returned the fifth most production nationally entering this season from a team that made the College Football Playoff, and the Wolverines have accordingly picked up where they left off — mostly without their head coach. With Jim Harbaugh on a self-imposed three-game suspension to open the year, the Wolverines rolled through three non-conference opponents, then won a home game last week against Rutgers in Harbaugh’s return to the sideline.

The Wolverines have underperformed slightly compared to their preseason projections; SP+ and FEI both keep the preseason data in longer than FPI, which explains the discrepancy in the profiles. But still: Even with the preseason projections removed, Michigan would be fifth nationally instead of third. And they’ve rolled through all four of their opponents by an average of 26 points. The statistical models give NU little chance in this one, with SP+ predicting an almost 27-point Wolverines win. The good news is Nebraska won’t play anyone this excellent for the rest of the year.

Blake Corum. Photo courtesy Michigan Athletics.

OFFENSE

STATS

Statistical Model Rankings

SP+ Offensive Rating: 16th
FEI Offensive Rating: 9th
FPI Offensive Rating: 21st

Baseline Stats

Adjusted Yards Per Play: 8.06 (1st)
Adjusted Points Per Drive: 4.00 (4th)
20+ Plays Per Game: 5.0 (58th)
Time of Possession Per Game: 29:26 (75th)

Money Down Efficiency

Third Down Conversions: 51.85% (22nd)
Fourth Down Aggressiveness: 0.66 attempts per game (116th)

Rushing

Rushing Attempts Per Game: 31.67 (99th)
Rushing Yards Per Game: 156.67 (70th)
Rushing Yards Per Attempt: 4.95 (40th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Per Game: 1.3 (48th)

Passing

Passing Attempts Per Game: 24.0 (117th)
Passing Yards Per Game: 245.3 (61st)
Passing Yards Per Attempt: 10.2 (14th)
20+ Yard Pass Plays Per Game: 3.7 (57th)

Michigan has been an efficiency monster in 2023, performing like a top 20 overall offense and ranking first nationally in non-garbage-time yards per play despite not really generating that much explosiveness. The passing game has especially made the most of its snaps, turning a bottom-10 number of passing attempts nationally into nearly top-60 yardage. And UM is a nightmare to get off the field on money downs, usually because they don’t have far to go to convert. The Wolverines may not be hunting 60-yard gains Saturday, but they’re likely going to hit the Blackshirts with a barrage of 7- and 8-yard gains.

POSITIONS

Quarterback

J.J. McCarthy, junior

The second-year starter has been stellar in just about every passing category this season — first nationally among qualified passers in adjusted completion percentage, 10th in percentage of his throws with “excellent” placement into tight windows, 20th in the percentage of pressures against him that turn into sacks, all while throwing the ball downfield at a top-40 depth — except for interceptions (he threw three in one game against Bowling Green). He’s also a good athlete who is a threat to run; Michigan used him as a Wildcat quarterback in 2022 the last time the teams met in Lincoln.

McCarthy is a good player in his own right, but using play-action off the Wolverines’ strong running game turns him into a monster: On just 17 play-action dropbacks, McCarthy’s completing 94.1% of his passes for 326 yards (19.2 yards per attempt) and four touchdowns. NU’s second and third levels being sound with their eyes on these play-fakes will be a key Saturday. The other key will be generating pressure, as McCarthy’s completion percentage drops 30 percentage points when pressured, and all three of his interceptions have come when pressured. But still: Either McCarthy of Shedeur Sanders of Colorado will be the best QB the Blackshirts face this year, and he’ll probably be a high NFL pick within the next couple of years.

Running Backs

Blake Corum, senior
Donovan Edwards, junior

Michigan has one of the best tailback duos in recent memory, nearly returning two players who finished with 1,000 rushing yards in 2022. Corum was a leading Heisman contender last year with 1,463 yards, until he suffered a late-season injury. Edwards took over from there, delivering three monster games down the stretch, including 216 yards in a win over Ohio State. Corum has returned strong in 2023 and a nightmare on outside plays, with his 13 carries outside the D gap (to the outside of the tight end) going for a combined 154 yards. Edwards has yet to get loose this year, averaging 3.6 yards per carry, but he’s a proven, talented player who has produced against elite defenses, so that feels like a matter of when, not if. Both are good pass catchers out of the backfield, as well. Nebraska currently has the fourth-ranked per-run defense nationally, which will present a much stiffer test than anything they’ve faced so far this year.