THE FIELD: Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan State
Want to make a bowl game? Here are three teams with new coaches, bad quarterbacks, and (mostly) mediocre defenses
Glossary of Terms1
Statistics through Week 7
vs. Northwestern
Saturday, Oct. 21
2:30 P.M. CT
TV: Big Ten Network
OVERALL
Record: 3-3 (1-2 Big Ten, T-3 in West)
Overall SP+ Ranking: 95th
Overall FEI Ranking: 81st
Overall FPI Ranking: 88th
Net Adjusted Yards Per Play: -0.92 (98th)
Net Adjusted Points Per Drive: -0.89 (104th)
Net 20+ Yard Plays Per Game: -1.30
Turnover Margin: Even (T-63rd)
Northwestern was not projected highly entering the season, then was rocked by an athlete hazing scandal that led to longtime coach Pat Fitzgerald being fired a month before the start of fall camp.
It hasn’t gone well for the Wildcats — with big losses to Rutgers, Duke, and Penn State — but NW did manage to steal an unexpected win against Minnesota in overtime after trailing 31-10. Things are bad in Evanston, but not completely rock-bottom off-the-rails bad as it looked like it might be heading toward this summer. But, still: The only teams worse than Northwestern on Nebraska’s schedule per the advanced metrics are NIU (102nd in SP+) and Louisiana Tech (111th). The Wildcats are 42 spots in SP+ below Nebraska’s current ranking of 53. In a string of three winnable games, this one’s the most winnable, by far.
OFFENSE
STATS
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Offensive Rating: 110th
FEI Offensive Rating: 92nd
FPI Offensive Rating: 108th
Baseline Stats
Adjusted Yards Per Play: 4.58 (122nd)
Adjusted Points Per Drive: 1.65 (103rd)
20+ Plays Per Game: 2.5
Turnovers Lost: 5 (11th)
Money Down Efficiency
Third Down Conversions: 45.56% (32nd)
Fourth Down Aggressiveness: 9 attempts (92nd)
Rushing
Rushing Attempts Per Game: 33.0 (94th)
Rushing Yards Per Game: 103.0 (120th)
Rushing Yards Per Attempt: 3.12 (121st)
20+ Yard Run Plays Per Game: 0.5 (T-120th)
Passing
Passing Attempts Per Game: 33.5 (49th)
Passing Yards Per Game: 203.3 (97th)
Passing Yards Per Attempt: 6.1 (119th)
20+ Yard Pass Plays Per Game: 2.0 (119th)
After losing multi-year starting back Evan Hull and top-10 pick lineman Peter Skoronski to the NFL, Northwestern’s fielded one of the worst rushing attacks in the country in 2023. The passing game has been a little better, but not much: Northwestern passes the ball at a top-50 rate in the country but is just 97th in total yards. And its passing production is being propped up by the one outlier contest against Minnesota, in which it threw for almost 400 yards. The Wildcats’ offensive success rate is 39%, about the same as Nebraska’s, but they’re getting significantly fewer explosive plays per game (only 2.5 gains over 20 yards per game).
But they don’t turn the ball over or have negative plays. This matchup should be a clear advantage for Nebraska’s defense, but if they don’t come to play NW is capable of stringing together some drives.
POSITIONS
Quarterback
Ben Bryant, graduate senior/Brendan Sullivan, third-year sophomore
The Cincinnati transfer Bryant was injured three weeks ago against Penn State, leading to Sullivan to step in as starter against Howard. It’s unclear if Bryant will be healthy for Saturday’s game after a bye week.
Bryant had a nice performance for the Wildcats against Minnesota, throwing for 396 yards, but otherwise has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the Power 5 this season; he was held under 150 passing yards in four of the other five contests and has a PFF PASSING grade two spots behind Nebraska’s backup-turned starter Heinrich Haarberg.
Sullivan was efficient against Howard, but it’s a far cry from Howard’s defense to this year’s Blackshirts. Obviously, Nebraska would rather play the backup, but neither player has been good this year, so I’m not sure it makes a tangible difference who’s under center.
Running Backs
Cam Porter, fourth-year junior
Joseph Himon II, second-year freshman
Porter has probably been the best individual player on Northwestern’s offense. He has the ability to force some missed tackles, with 20 so far this year in 74 carries, but he’s also getting initial contact from the defense at one of the shallowest depths in the P5, meaning he’s not getting much help from his blocking. Himon is the better pass-catcher of the two backs.
Receivers/Tight Ends
X: Cam Johnson, fifth-year senior
Z: Bryce Kirtz, fifth-year senior
Slot: A.J. Henning, fourth-year senior/Calvin Johnson II, redshirt sophomore
Y: Charlie Mangieri, fifth-year senior
H: Thomas Gordon, fifth-year senior
The receiving corps lacks high-end talent but has a lot of experience. Johnson — a transfer from Vanderbilt and Arizona State — and Kirtz have both topped 300 receiving yards in six games and are both sure-handed downfield weapons. Johnson is probably the best of the bunch, with some nice numbers in contested catch situations, plus a little juice after the catch with eight missed tackles forced. Henning, a Michigan transfer, is the starter in the slot but missed the Howard game before the bye. Calvin Johnson Jr. — no relation — will fill in if Henning is down. The two tight ends split snaps, with both being solid blockers but ineffective receivers.
Offensive Line
LT: Caleb Tiernan, third-year sophomore
LG: Josh Priebe, fourth-year senior
C: Ben Wrather, fourth-year senior
RG: Dom D’Antonio, fifth-year senior
RT: Josh Thompson, third-year sophomore
The Wildcats have an experienced line, but it’s struggled so far this year. None of NU’s starter has a pass blocking grade from PFF above 66 (average) with four of its starters surrendering 11 or more pressures.The run blocking isn’t much better, with NW generating just 2.48 yards on average downfield before its running back is contacted by the defense. Scheme-wise, the Wildcats are about 50-50 gap and zone runs, and they tend to run over the left side of their line more than their right.
DEFENSE
STATS
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Defensive Rating: 73rd
FEI Defensive Rating: 71st
FPI Defensive Rating: 100th
Baseline Stats
Adjusted Yards Per Play Allowed: 5.50 (46th)
Adjusted Points Per Drive Allowed: 2.54 (92nd)
20+ Plays Allowed Per Game: 3.8
Turnovers Forced: 5 (118th)
Money Down Efficiency
Third Down Conversions Against: 40.00% (79th)
Run Defense
Rushing Attempts Against Per Game: 39.33 (112th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 172.33 (108th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 4.38 (93rd)
20+ Yard Run Plays Allowed Per Game: 1.3 (74th)
Pass Defense
Passing Attempts Against Per Game: 189.7 (26th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 27.0 (22nd)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 7.0 (50th)
20+ Yard Pass Allowed Plays Per Game: 2.5 (21st)
Northwestern’s defense is a better unit than its offense but isn’t one of the program’s classic stingy groups, around the FBS average in all the advanced metrics. Its defense has done a good job limiting yardage and is solid against big plays, but also generates very little chaos or big plays of its own. The Wildcats are vulnerable on the ground, giving up nearly 175 rushing yards per contest. NW gave up 244 yards to a Minnesota rushing attack Husker fans all saw firsthand be pretty mediocre. The Wildcats have pretty solid counting stats against the pass, but I think that’s more of a function of teams being able to run at will and not needing to turn to the air. Still, Northwestern is coming off a bye week, so don’t be surprised if they throw a funky look at Nebraska aimed at stopping the ground attack or something. They’re capable of stopping this Nebraska offense.
Positions
Edge Defender
Sean McLaughlin, fourth-year junior
Richie Hagarty, fifth-year senior
Neither of Northwestern’s starters has been able to generate much pass rush, with Hagarty at a 7.0% pass-rush win percentage and McLaughlin at 3.3%. And both are mediocre to bad against the run. Look for Nebraska to attack the edges with outside runs here.
Interior Line
Najee Story, third-year sophomore
Carmine Bastone, third-year sophomore
Bastone is a good player against the run, with nine total “stops” — tackles that constitute a "failure" for the offense — in run defense per PFF. He’s also only missed one tackle this year. Story is more of the penetrator opposite him, with seven total pass-rush pressures, but can be moved off the ball in the running game per the advanced data. Outside of Bastone, this isn’t a good front.
Linebackers
Xander Mueller, fourth-year junior
Bryce Gallagher, fifth-year senior
The second-level is the strength of the defense. Gallagher, a contributor since he was a freshman, is 37th nationally in total tackles and is a solid, dependable coverage linebacker who brings down ballcarriers without creating much havoc or pass rush. He’s probably the unit’s best player. Mueller is more of a box linebacker/penetrator, leading the team with 7.0 tackles for loss and two sacks, but is a liability in coverage, surrendering 11 catches for 135 yards on 12 targets.
Nickel
Rod Heard II, fifth-year senior
Heard is solid as a run defender and Northwestern’s second-highest graded pass defender behind Gallagher, allowing 9.5 yards per catch while being targeted 22 times. He’s blitzed just six times this year, so he’s not really a threat as a rusher.
Safeties
FS: Coco Azema, fifth-year senior
BOX: Devin Turner, second-year sophomore
Turner is a big body who plays a lot like a linebacker and is spending most of his time in the box or the slot. He’s been OK in coverage, allowing just five completions on 12 targets. Teams have only targeted Azema, the deep safety, five times in coverage this year, but he’s given up two chunk gains, and he’s had tackling issues, also.
Corners
Theran Johnson, third-year sophomore
Garnett Hollis Jr., fourth-year junior
The two starters are both better against the run than the pass, with both playing near the line as Northwestern plays a lot of Cover 2. They’ve each allowed over 160 yards receiving as the primary coverage defender this year, though teams are completing a low rate against both.
Special Teams
Field Position
Offense Average Starting Field Position: 74.7 yards to go (128th)
Defense Average Starting Field Position: 67.0 yards to go (124th)
Explosive Plays
Return Touchdowns: 0
Return Touchdowns Allowed: 0
Blocked Kicks: 0
Own Kicks Blocked: 0
Kicking
Field Goal Percentage: 100.0% (T-1)
Extra Point Percentage: 100.0% (T-1)
Touchback Percentage: 26.92% (115th)
Specialists
K: Jack Olsen, third-year junior
P: Hunter Renner, fourth-year junior
KOS: Luke Akers, fourth-year senior
KR/PR: Bryce Kirtz, fifth-year senior/Coco Azema, fifth-year senior
Olsen has been rock solid, though he’s only attempted four field goals and has a long of 40. Renner has accuracy but not a big leg. Kirtz is a fair-catch specialist on punt returns, with only one actual return so far this year, while Azema has a long kickoff return of 27 yards. Seems like a solid
vs. Purdue
Saturday, Oct. 28
2:30 P.M. CT
TV: FS1
OVERALL
Record: 2-5 (1-3 Big Ten, T-6th in West)
Overall SP+ Ranking: 75th
Overall FEI Ranking: 56th
Overall FPI Ranking: 60th
Net Adjusted Yards Per Play: -0.55 (83rd)
Net Adjusted Points Per Drive: -0.68 (95th)
Net 20+ Yard Plays Per Game: -2.15
Turnover Margin: -1 (T-75th)
The Boilermakers are also breaking in a new coach, though this one not via scandal like Nebraska’s other two opponents in this stretch. Former Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters replaces Jeff Brohm, who left to take over at his alma mater, Louisville.
It’s been a tough go for Walters so far, with a tricky non-conference schedule that featured a solid Fresno State squad and games against P5 opponents Virginia Tech and Syracuse, with a big loss to the Orange. They also featured a tough start to the conference calendar, with Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio State in their first four Big Ten games. The tough stretch has led to a bad record, but Purdue’s profile in the statistical models is about dead even with Nebraska, trailing NU in SP+ but slightly better per the other two services. The Huskers get home-field advantage, but the Boilermakers get to come off a bye this Saturday. This one will be, essentially, a toss-up.
OFFENSE
STATS
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Offensive Rating: 75th
FEI Offensive Rating: 39th
FPI Offensive Rating: 54th
Baseline Stats
Adjusted Yards Per Play: 5.28 (93rd)
Adjusted Points Per Drive: 1.78 (97th)
20+ Plays Per Game: 3.42
Turnovers Lost: 10 (73rd)
Money Down Efficiency
Third Down Conversions: 40.95 (62nd)
Fourth Down Aggressiveness: 16 (24th)
Rushing
Rushing Attempts Per Game: 37.0 (54th)
Rushing Yards Per Game: 139.1 (90th)
Rushing Yards Per Attempt: 3.76 (98th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Per Game: 1.14 (56th)
Passing
Passing Attempts Per Game: 35.6 (29th)
Passing Yards Per Game: 232.11 (68th)
Passing Yards Per Attempt: 6.50 (103rd)
20+ Yard Pass Plays Per Game: 2.28 (99th)
Walters continued Brohm’s pass-happy style by bringing in former Air Raid quarterback and North Texas/USC/West Virginia coordinator Graham Harrell to lead his offense. The results have been a bit more balanced, with Purdue’s rush and pass attempts about even. The running game has been efficient, with a 44% success rate on running plays, but not explosive. Passing plays have been a bit worse, with some decent yardage but off a high number of attempts. This unit is probably the best of the three teams, but should be, again, an advantage to Nebraska’s defense.
POSITIONS
Quarterback
Hudson Card, fourth-year junior
Card was a decently sought-after transfer quarterback after delivering some solid performances as a backup at Texas.2 It’s been a mixed bag, with some strong indicators — like a nearly 70% adjusted completion percentage (his receivers have dropped 11 expected completions) and a good rate of his pressures not turning into sacks — and some bad ones — like a low depth of target, 12 turnover-worthy throws, and eight fumbles. He’s a good athlete, with 119 yards gained on scrambles this year on 6.6 yards per scramble, though they don’t use him on designed runs.
This is one of the worst three-game stretches of quarterbacks I can remember Nebraska encountering in conference play, but Card is probably the best of the bunch, and may be the best in a pretty bleak Big Ten West.
Running Backs
Tyrone Tracy, fifth-year senior
Devin Mockobee, third-year sophomore
Tracy is a former Iowa slot receiver who has transitioned to the backfield this season and done a nice job, averaging 5.9 yards per rushing attempt, with 3.56 of that yardage per carry coming after he’s initially contacted by the defense. He’s forced 27 missed tackles in just 50 rushing touches, meaning he’s generating unblocked yardage off his own skill about every other carry. His pass-catching has been, surprisingly, pretty bad this year for a former receiver, with nine catches on 14 targets.
Mockobee — a former walk-on who broke out against Nebraska last year as a freshman — has also been a solid rusher, forcing 22 missed tackles of his own in 104 rushing attempts. He’s been a little less efficient than Tracy but has seven runs of 15 yards or longer. He’s also been a better weapon out of the backfield. He does have six fumbles on the season.
Receivers/Tight Ends
X: Deion Burks, third-year sophomore
Z: Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen, fourth-year junior
Slot: TJ Sheffield, fifth-year senior
Y: Garrett Miller, fifth-year senior
H: Max Klare, second-year freshman
Purdue’s receivers have put up fairly impressive counting stats, but the underlying numbers suggest it’s been more volume-based than quality-based. Burks has emerged for the Boilermakers as a sophomore, leading the team with 418 yards and five touchdowns, but has struggled with drops and isn’t a ball-winner at 5’11. He is a threat after the catch, with 13 missed tackles forced and 173 yards after the catch. Yassen and Sheffield are both holdovers from Brohm’s time and have been solid but unspectacular Big Ten receivers.
Both tight ends have been liabilities as blockers, with Klare being a solid receiving option with nearly 200 yards this season.
Offensive Line
LT: Mahamane Moussa, third-year sophomore
LG: Preston Nichols, fifth-year senior
C: Gus Hartwig, fourth-year senior
RG: Jalen Grant, fourth-year senior
RT: Daniel Johnson, fifth-year senior
The left guard Nichols and center Hartwig have been good players, with 10 combined pressures allowed in 466 pass-blocking snaps this season. But since a season-ending injury to Marcus Mbow, a former NU commit and probably Purdue’s best lineman, the edges of the Boliermakers’ line have struggled with Moussa allowing 22 total pressures (five of which have turned into sacks). The Huskers’ rushers will have their chances here.
The run blocking has been OK, with 3.08 line yards generated before contact. Purdue has been about 60-40 zone scheme to gap this season, with the majority of its runs in the left side A and B gaps.
DEFENSE
STATS
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Defensive Rating: 64th
FEI Defensive Rating: 76th
FPI Defensive Rating: 96th
Baseline Stats
Adjusted Yards Per Play Allowed: 5.83 (69th)
Adjusted Points Per Drive Allowed: 2.46 (87th)
20+ Plays Allowed Per Game: 5.57
Turnovers Forced: 9 (T-63rd)
Money Down Efficiency
Third Down Conversions Against: 45.45% (115th)
Run Defense
Rushing Attempts Against Per Game: 36.29 (88th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 153.57 (86th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 4.23 (84th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Allowed Per Game: 1.57 (106th)
Pass Defense
Passing Attempts Against Per Game: 32.0 (71st)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 241.9 (89th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 7.6 (88th)
20+ Yard Pass Allowed Plays Per Game: 4.0 (119th)
Walters gave Nebraska a lot of trouble in his two years as a coordinator at Illinois, springing a surprise defense scheme on NU in the 2021 opener that won Illinois the game, and he developed three players in the secondary who were just taken in the NFL draft. He plays a lot of man and press coverage and is generally pretty aggressive, and plays a variation of the 3-3-5 defense Nebraska also uses.
It’s worked out a little worse for him at Purdue, which had a top-25 caliber defense the final two years under Brohm but lost a lot of talent this offseason. The Boilermakers are 84th nationally per rush and 89th nationally per pass, and three of their five starters in the secondary are grading out among the worst P5 coverage players in the country. They will also be coming off a bye week for this game, though, so don’t be surprised if we get another one-week tricky gameplan from Walters.
Positions
Defensive Line
END: Malik Langham, sixth-year senior
NOSE: Cole Brevard, fourth-year junior
END: Isaiah Nichols, sixth-year senior
All three on the front are transfers brought in by Walters. The group has been pushed around a bit this year, with all three ranking average or below average in run defense, concerning as three-man fronts prioritize stinginess in the run game over having an ability to rush the passer.
Linebackers
MIKE: Clyde Washington, fourth-year junior
WILL: Yanni Karlaftis, third-year sophomore
Buck: Nic Scourton, second-year sophomore
The second level hasn’t been much better against the run than the front, with only Scourton graded out positively by PFF. The backers do have some pass rush juice, though. Scourton, who plays a down position similar to Nebraska’s Jack linebacker, is an excellent pass rusher, with 21 total pressures and a 16.6% pass-rush win rate. Also look for Kydran Jenkins to work in as a dangerous pass rusher, with 33 total pressures and a 14.8% win rate. NU will need to find those two on passing downs. Washington has been solid against the pass, having yet to be targeted in 40 pass snaps against, but the other two are liabilities in coverage.
Nickel
Cam Allen, fifth-year senior
Allen is a multi-year starter who returned to play under the new coach, but has been pretty ineffective this year. He’s been OK against the run in the new defense, playing almost all of his snaps over the slot receiver, but has also been targeted 35 times by opposing offenses, allowing 328 yards as the primary coverage defender.
Safeties
FS: Dillon Thieneman, first-year freshman
BOX: Sanoussi Kane, fourth-year senior
Thieneman has been arguably the best player on the defense as a true freshman, playing 480 snaps as Purdue’s highest-graded run defender and second-highest-graded pass rusher and coverage player. He’s doing that while playing over 85% of his snaps lined up deep over the top. He’s a major dude. Kane is more of a box safety, playing more down and in the slot, and has been one of the worst Power 5 secondary starters in the country against the pass, allowing 285 yards as the primary coverage defender this year on 17 completions against.
Corners
FC: Markevious Brown, third-year junior
BC: Derrick Rogers Jr., first-year freshman
The freshman Rogers has been the better player in coverage, allowing just three receptions for 44 yards this season. The two best players in Purdue’s back five are true freshmen. If the worst P5 coverage guy isn’t Kane, it’s possibly Brown, who’s been targeted as the field corner 35 times, allowing 359 receiving yards. He is good against the run, though. But there will be some holes for NU to attack with the pass.
Special Teams
Field Position
Offense Average Starting Field Position: 70.9 yards to go (67th)
Defense Average Starting Field Position: 69.4 yards to go (102nd)
Explosive Plays
Return Touchdowns: 1
Return Touchdowns Allowed: 0
Blocked Kicks: 1
Own Kicks Blocked: 2
Kicking
Field Goal Percentage: 33.33% (133rd)
Extra Point Percentage: 90.9% (129th)
Touchback Percentage: 33.33% (115th)
Specialists
K: Julio Macias, second-year freshman
P: Jack Ansell, third-year junior
KOS: Caleb Krockover, fourth-year junior
KR/PR: TJ Sheffield/Tyrone Tracy
The Boilermakers have one of the worst placekicking situation in the nation, making just 3 of 9 field goal attempts and missing two extra points. They also rarely get touchbacks, have had two kicks blocked, and average under 40 yards a punt. This is a bad special teams unit that Nebraska should be able to take advantage of.
at Michigan State
Saturday, Nov. 4
Time: TBA
TV: TBA
OVERALL
Record: 2-4 (0-3 Big Ten, T-6th in East)
Overall SP+ Ranking: 55th
Overall FEI Ranking: 67th
Overall FPI Ranking: 59th
Net Adjusted Yards Per Play: -0.76 (94th)
Net Adjusted Points Per Drive: -0.87 (102nd)
Net 20+ Yard Plays Per Game: -0.83
Turnover Margin: -6 (128th)
This one will be Nebraska’ third straight game against a new coach — that’s gotta be a record? — though this one also comes on problematic terms as Mel Tucker was fired last month after allegedly sexually harassing activist Brenda Tracy over the phone after hiring her to speak to his team about sexual harassment. Yikes!
It’s been a tough go of it for the Spartans since the allegations were made public, with four straight losses, blowouts to No. 8 Washington and Maryland and close on the road at Iowa and Rutgers. But those are all pretty good teams, and interim coach Harlon Barnett — and former head coach Mark Dantonio, who re-joined the staff to help out after Tucker’s suspension — still has MSU playing OK, about even with Nebraska in all three statistical models. This game also feel like a toss up, but with it on the road, maybe slight advantage to MSU, but certainly a winnable game for Nebraska.
OFFENSE
STATS
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Offensive Rating: 86th
FEI Offensive Rating: 86th
FPI Offensive Rating: 100th
Baseline Stats
Adjusted Yards Per Play: 5.00 (107th)
Adjusted Points Per Drive: 1.30 (124th)
20+ Plays Per Game: 3.16
Turnovers Lost: 15 (130th)
Money Down Efficiency
Third Down Conversions: 35.90% (100th)
Fourth Down Aggressiveness: 12 (51st)
Rushing
Rushing Attempts Per Game: 33.3 (92nd)
Rushing Yards Per Game: 117.7 (111th)
Rushing Yards Per Attempt: 3.53 (111th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Per Game: 0.5 (T-120th)
Passing
Passing Attempts Per Game: 34.70 (37th)
Passing Yards Per Game: 231.70 (70th)
Passing Yards Per Attempt: 6.70 (T-95th)
20+ Yard Pass Plays Per Game: 2.66 (T-99th)
It’s also Nebraska’s third-straight game against a poor offense that is bad at running the ball and not much better passing but throws at a slightly higher clip. These three teams’ efficiency numbers and styles of play are all so similar it’s uncanny.
If Northwestern doesn’t have the worst running game Nebraska will play in conference this year, MSU does. The 19 teams trailing it in per-carry efficiency are a pretty gnarly list of the worst G5 teams. The Spartans are throwing for a decent yardage total per game, but it’s also coming on the 37th-most attempts per game. Nothing about this attack is good; advantage, again, Blackshirts.
POSITIONS
Quarterback
Noah Kim, fourth-year junior
This also has to be one of the worst three-game conference stretches of quarterbacks Nebraska has faced, which is saying something considering some of the years in the Big Ten. Kim won a four-way competition out of fall camp and delivered two great performances against Central Michigan and Richmond to open the season but has been a disaster since, with six interceptions to one touchdown in the last three games. He’s completing an adjusted 64.9% of his passes, though MSU is asking him to throw it down the field at a decent depth. Kim does has the 15th-best “big time throw” percentage among 81 qualified Power 5 starters, though I have to imagine that’s an anomaly. But I guess don’t be surprised if he makes some nails throws?
But if he keeps playing this way, it’s unclear if he’ll still be the starter when MSU plays NU.
Running Backs
Nathan Carter, second-year sophomore
Jalen Berger, fourth-year junior
Carter, a transfer after a promising two-year stint at UConn, has been the more effective of the two backs with nearly 5 yards per carry. Berger is a Wisconsin transfer brought in to replace Kenneth Walker under Tucker’s transfer-portal heavy philosophy but was ineffective last year and has remained that way this year. Neither of these players has been particularly good in 2023.
Receivers/Tight Ends
X: Montorie Foster, Jr., fourth-year senior
Z: Jaron Glover, second-year freshman
Slot: Tre Mosley, fifth-year senior
Y: Maliq Carr, fourth-year junior
H: Evan Morris, fifth-year senior
This is a pretty bleak group of wideouts, with little ability to win down the field or run after catch. Only Foster has a positive receiving grade amongst the wideouts per PFF, and it’s right on the edge. Nebraska transfer Alante Brown has received just one target in four games.
Carr, however, is one of the best tight ends NU will face this year. In his second season after transferring from Purdue, he’s third amongst Spartans for targets and is converting over half his contested targets into catches. He’s more of a receiver than a blocker, and frequently lines up as a slot receiver, too. He’s second among Spartan starters in yards per route run.
Offensive Line
LT: Brandon Baldwin, fourth-year junior
LG: J.D. Duplain, fourth-year senior
C: Nick Samac, fourth-year senior
RG: Kevin Wigenton II, third-year sophomore
RT: Spencer Brown, fifth-year senior
The line is solid but unspectacular, with Duplain and Brown both solid in pass pro. Baldwin has given up 11 pressures, which might be an area for the Blackshirts to attack. Samac is the highest-graded run blocker of the group.
DEFENSE
STATS
Statistical Model Rankings
SP+ Defensive Rating: 26th
FEI Defensive Rating: 47th
FPI Defensive Rating: 49th
Baseline Stats
Adjusted Yards Per Play Allowed: 5.76 (65th)
Adjusted Points Per Drive Allowed: 2.17 (63rd)
20+ Plays Allowed Per Game: 3.99
Turnovers Forced: 9 (T-63rd)
Money Down Efficiency
Third Down Conversions Against: 24.68%
Run Defense
Rushing Attempts Against Per Game: 33.00 (37th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 114.83 (33rd)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 3.48 (36th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Allowed Per Game: 0.83 (35th)
Pass Defense
Passing Attempts Against Per Game: 30.8 (54th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 219.2 (57th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 7.1 (54th)
20+ Yard Pass Allowed Plays Per Game: 3.16 (49th)
The MSU defense is the best unit Nebraska will play in this three-game stretch. Defense has been a weak spot for the Spartans since Tucker arrived3, but he put together a solid unit through the portal on his way out the door. The Spartans are good against the run, allowing under four yards per carry despite having faced some pretty strong offenses. The pass defense numbers are a little leakier, but they’ve also played three of the best passing attacks nationally in Washington, Maryland, and Ohio State, so the numbers are probably a little pessimistic on how good the unit actually is.
There’s a lot of youth on this unit, two true freshmen and four true sophomores in the starting lineup.
Positions
Edge Defender
Brandon Wright, fourth-year senior
Zion Young, second-year sophomore
Wright is a former running back who switched to the defensive side of the ball and became solid pass rusher. He has a 13.2% pass-rush win rate this season, resulting in 13 pressures and three sacks. He’s a good player the Huskers will have to watch out for on passing downs. Young leads the team with 16 total pressures but has done it with a far less efficient 5.8% win rate. Wright grades out as a poor run defender, and Young is about average.
Interior Line
Derrick Harmon, third-year sophomore
Maverick Hansen, fifth-year senior
Harmon has been MSU’s best player so far, with 11 pass-rush pressures and an 8.7% win rate as a 340-pound interior lineman, while also being a force against the run, leading the team in PFF’s run stops stat. Hansen holds up against the run but hasn’t brought any pass rush so far. Harmon is a guy Nebraska will have to scheme around in its run schemes and on passing downs.
Linebackers
MIKE: Jordan Hall, first-year freshman
WILL: Cal Haladay, fourth-year junior
Hall has been excellent for the Spartans as a true freshman, with PFF grading him as the unit’s third-best starter. He’s been great fitting the run but misses some tackles and is only OK in coverage. Haladay has experience as a multi-year starter but is mostly just an average-level box linebacker with limited athleticism and coverage ability. Neither is a threat in pass rush.
Nickel
Angelo Grose, fourth-year senior
Grose is more of a coverage nickel than a strong run player and is the Spartans highest-graded coverage player per PFF, with two interceptions and two pass breakups. He’s also MSU’s highest-rated pass rusher, though just on nine total rushes. He has a tendency to miss some tackles, and doesn’t grade out well against the run.
Safeties
Jaden Mangham, second-year sophomore
Malik Spencer, second-year sophomore
Mangham — a priority Nebraska recruit in the 2022 class the Huskers missed on — has been one of the better safeties in the country against the run, with zero missed tackles so far this year. But he’s allowed a catch on 8 of the 9 targets against him this season. Spencer is also solid against the run but a liability against the pass. The two spend about equal time in the box and deep over the top in the split-safety defense.
Corners
Chance Rucker, first-year freshman
Dillon Tatum, second-year sophomore
Neither corner has been particularly strong, but Rucker, as a true freshman, has been the best cover guy, allowing 12 catches on 20 total targets for just 80 total yards. Teams have picked on Tatum more, getting 183 total yards off of him as the primary coverage defender. Tatum is the better run defender, though. But they’ve also had a tough go of it against the offenses they’ve faced.
Special Teams
Field Position
Offense Average Starting Field Position: 73.1 yards to go (106th)
Defense Average Starting Field Position: 68.4 yards to go (112th)
Explosive Plays
Return Touchdowns: 0
Return Touchdowns Allowed: 1
Blocked Kicks: 0
Own Kicks Blocked: 1
Kicking
Field Goal Percentage: 77.98 (63rd)
Extra Point Percentage: 100% (T-1)
Touchback Percentage: 55.17% (62nd)
Specialists
K: Jonathan Kim, fifth-year senior
P: Ryan Eckley, second-year freshman
KOS: Jonathan Kim, fifth-year senior
KR/PR: Tyrell Henry, second-year sophomore
The kicking game for MSU is solid, with Kim perfect on extra points and hitting 7 of 9 field goals, with both misses coming from 40+ yards. He’s also got a big leg, hitting from 58 yards out and nailing a lot of touchbacks on kickoffs. Eckley is a solid if unspectacular punter. Henry is averaging just 8.2 yards per return on the rare times he brings the ball out.
Glossary: SP+ (by ESPN’s Bill Connelly), FEI (by Football Outsiders’ Brian Fremeau), and FPI (by ESPN’s College Football Power Index) are the three main tempo-adjusted statistical models for college football teams, meant to provide a holistic ranking of a team, an offense or a defense’s overall quality while factoring out tempo of play and stats accumulated during garbage time and factoring in the quality of your opponents. Adjusted yards per play measures the average number of yards gained per snap in all non-garbage time plays, meant to measure how well a team moves the ball or defends per snap. Adjusted points per drive is the average number of points scored by your unit per drive in non-garbage time, meant to measure how well a team turns its possessions into points or prevents the same. A havoc play is defined as any tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup/deflection.
Where he lost a quarterback battle to former NU starter Casey Thompson.
Ironic considering he was a defensive coordinator at Georgia before his HC gigs.