THE FIELD: Wisconsin, Iowa

The two last chances to salvage a bowl come against the two biggest thorns in Nebraska's side

Wisconsin receiver Will Pauling. Photo courtesy Wisconsin Athletics.

Glossary of Terms¹

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At Wisconsin

Saturday, Nov. 18
6:30 p.m. CT
NBC

OVERALL

Record: 5-5 (3-4 Big Ten)
Overall SP+ Ranking: 38th
Overall FEI Ranking: 45th
Overall FPI Ranking: 41st

Net Adjusted Yards Per Play: +0.31 (55th)
Net Adjusted Points Per Drive: +0.19 (56th)
Net 20+ Yard Plays Per Game: -0.3
Turnover Margin Per Game: -0.20 (84th) 

Wisconsin was the preseason favorite to win the West, but the transition to coach Luke Fickell has been bumpier than expected. They started fine — with a stumble on the road against a good Washington State team and a close loss to Iowa — but enter Saturday on a three-game losing streak that includes a multi-score defeat to Northwestern. The computers say the Badgers have probably a 10-15 spot edge on Nebraska, and they’ll get the benefit of a home game, too.

OFFENSE

STATS

Statistical Model Rankings

SP+ Offensive Rating: 82nd
FEI Offensive Rating: 77th
FPI Offensive Rating: 86th

Baseline Stats

Adjusted Yards Per Play: 5.25 (96th)
Adjusted Points Per Drive: 1.81 (92nd)
20+ Plays Per Game: 2.7
Giveaways Per Game: 1.5 (77th)

Money Downs

Third Down Conversions: 43.9% (32nd)
Fourth Down Attempts Per Game: 1.5 (87th)

Rushing

Rushing Attempts Per Game: 33.6 (93rd)
Rushing Yards Per Game: 154.3 (73rd)
Rushing Yards Per Attempt: 4.59 (45th)
20+ Yard Run Plays Per Game: 0.7 (115th)

Passing

Passing Attempts Per Game: 37.9 (14th)
Passing Yards Per Game: 217. 9 (80th)
Passing Yards Per Attempt: 5.7 (128th)
20+ Yard Pass Plays Per Game: 2.0 (120th)

Fickell moved UW from the staid pro-I scheme of Paul Chryst to a more modern “Veer and Shoot” philosophy similar to what you’d see under Art Briles at Baylor or Josh Heupel at Tennessee. It hasn’t gone particularly well, with the unit performing better than the late-era Chryst teams but not exactly putting up the gaudy numbers it’s known for. Spreading the offense out hasn’t generated the big plays in the passing game the system is designed to — only two gains of 20 or more yards on passing plays per game (fewer than Iowa) and a bottom-five passing yard efficiencty nationally. Some of the struggles can be chalked up to injuries, as starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai missed several games before returning last week, but on the whole this is just an offense that throws the ball a lot for not much yardage.

TOP PLAYERS

Braelon Allen, Running Back

The 6’2, 245-pound Allen looked like the next great Badgers back when he burst on the scene as a freshman in the middle of the 2021 season, running that year for an average of 4.48 yards per carry after initial contact. Husker fans will remember his 228-yard, three-touchdown performance from that year in particular. His sophomore season was a bit of a struggle, with big volume but far less efficiency — 2.92 yards after initial contact per carry — and less explosiveness — 10 fewer runs of 10 or more yards. He’s been mostly good this year with the transition to the shotgun-based scheme, with great games against Buffalo (141 yards, nine missed tackles forced), Purdue (116 yards, eight missed tackles forced), and Illinois (145 yards, seven missed tackles forced). But he was banged up against Ohio State, and played just three snaps last week. It looks like he’s play against NU but may not be at 100%.

Riley Mahlman, Right Tackle

In his second year as a starter, the former top-70 recruit has been the Badgers’ best lineman as a third-year sophomore. He’s allowed four sacks, but they’ve come on just 13 total pressures allowed, a bad run of luck. He’s fine as a run blocker but better in pass protection. It’s still weird to see Wisconsin linemen have more pass-blocking sets in their stats than run-blocking reps.

Will Pauling, Wide Receiver

The third-year sophomore came over with Fickell from Cincinnati and immediately became the best pass catcher for the Badgers. He’s sixth in the Big Ten with 596 receiving yards — but it’s also come on the third most targets in the conference; his production has largely been volume based. He is just 5’10 and primarily operates out of the slot, but he doesn’t do much after the catch and is at his best as a ball winner, converting 10 of 18 contested catch opportunities into receptions, a rate that would be tied for 15th in the Power 5 among qualified receivers. 

Edge defender Darryl Peterson. Photo courtesy Wisconsin Athletics.

DEFENSE

STATS

Statistical Model Rankings

SP+ Defensive Rating: 6th
FEI Defensive Rating: 33rd
FPI Defensive Rating: 33rd

Baseline Stats

Adjusted Yards Per Play Allowed: 4.94 (18th)
Adjusted Points Per Drive Allowed: 1.62 (24th)
20+ Plays Allowed Per Game: 3.0
Takeaways Per Game: 1.3

Money Down Efficiency

Third Down Conversions Against: 40.13% (80th)

Run Defense

Rushing Attempts Against Per Game: 36.1 (76th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 134.5 (44th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 3.7 (41st)
20+ Yard Run Plays Allowed Per Game: 1.0 (52nd)

Pass Defense

Passing Attempts Against Per Game: 199.2 (77th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 199.2 (30th)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 6.2 (13th)
20+ Yard Pass Allowed Plays Per Game: 2.0 (18th)

Fickell was brought in for his defensive prowess and inherited a good roster, but the Badgers have taken a minor step back on this side of the ball from where they were under Jim Leonard. SP+ says this is a top 10 unit, but the other two services say it’s more in the “pretty good” range. Much like the change Nebraska underwent this year, Fickell moved UW from a 4-2-5 scheme to a modified odd front. The secondary — Fickell’s specialty in his former teams at Cincinnati — has been really strong, but teams have been able to run a bit on the Badgers.

Positions

Hunter Wohlers, Box Safety

The in-state junior has graded out as the 14th-best coverage defender in the country this year across all positions, allowing just 16 catches for 139 yards in 366 snaps in pass coverage. He’s also generated six pressures and two sacks, is the Badgers’ second-highest graded run defender, and almost never misses tackles. Wohlers has predominantly played in the box as a linebacker type, but he also gets moved around like a chess piece, spending 119 snaps in the slot and 216 over the top of the defense as a free safety. 

Darryl Peterson, Edge Defender

An “outside linebacker” who plays as essentially a defensive end, Peterson is elite as a run defender, with 16 “stops” — a PFF stat that measures how often a defender makes a tackle that constitutes an unsuccessful play for the offense — which ranks 10th among defensive linemen in the Big Ten. He also is just graded as the 10th-best run defender in the conference across all positions. He also a hell of a pass rusher when they let him do it, too, with the 10th-best pass-rush win rate in the conference and 28 total pressures on the year.