OFFENSIVE RECAP: 2023 Northwestern
Northwestern limits the Huskers' big plays until they don't
Glossary of Terms1
Link to Charting Sheet2
DRIVE 1
1 Play, 0.0 Yards Per Play
0% Success Rate
0 Explosive Plays, 1 Havoc Play Allowed
Nebraska has been one of the heaviest run teams in the Power 5 through the first six games of the season, so offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield elects to throw a curveball coming out of the bye week with a designer deep passing play to break tendency. It doesn’t go well:
Nebraska comes out in 12 personnel with two tight ends, ensuring Northwestern will match with base personnel and at least some bodies in the box. The Huskers are running a concept here with the tight ends called “Divide,” which uses two deep routes breaking in opposite directions horizontally (usually a post route and a vertical route or a post route and a corner route) to create a stretch or a conflict side-to-side on downfield coverage defenders. Northwestern has been a primarily Cover 2 team under Pat Fitzgerald and now David Braun, so Nebraska has a pretty good idea it will only have one deep safety responsible for an entire half of downfield coverage:
The concept goes off as planned with wing H Thomas Fidone breaking on a post over the middle of the field and in-line Y Nate Boerkircher running a straight-down-the-sideline vertical, creating a split between the safety. He can either stay with the vertical up the field or break on the post going across it, but he can’t cover both. At the last second you can see him drop his hips to leave the vertical and fully declare on the post, meaning Boerkircher on the vertical is running uncovered downfield for a potentially huge gain, with quarterback Heinrich Haarberg in a completely clean pocket with plenty of time to throw:
But Haarberg goes to the covered post route anyway and puts a bad throw on it, resulting in an interception. They probably had been planning to do this through the whole bye week and repped it in practice a ton, and everyone else on the offense but the quarterback executed well enough to get a monster gain to open the game. There are certain plays you can forgive a young quarterback, but this both decision and throw are pretty inexcusable.
DRIVE 2
3 Plays, 1.0 Yards Per Play
0% Success Rate
0 Explosive Plays, 0 Havoc Plays Allowed
After the Nebraska D forces Northwestern into a punt off the short field, this drive starts backed up inside the 1, resulting in two heavy-personnel, seven-lineman inside runs just to get some room to operate. On third and long, NU gets into an Empty package — a pretty risky call on your own goalline considering you only five blockers available to handle a blitz -- and tries to hit a quick slant route inside, but the pass is dropped by Fidone. The extra yardage to punt would have been nice, but just getting a kick off out of that situation is probably a W.
This would end up being a big Empty alignment game for Nebraska; the Huskers entered using Empty on just 3.02% of their plays but would use it on over 12% of their snaps Saturday. Northwestern is a pretty conservative defense with few blitzes and a not-scary defensive line, so the staff may have trusted Empty more knowing they probably weren’t going to get a huge seven-man pressure or a great pass rush against their inexperienced quarterback. But it will be interesting to see if the increased Empty usage was a one-week gameplan thing or a longer-term bye week adjustment.
DRIVE 3
2 Plays, -1.5 Yards Per Play
0% Success Rate
0 Explosive Plays, 2 Havoc Plays Allowed
This drive also starts backed up, though with at least a little room to function. Satterfield tests the outside with a Jet Sweep to Billy Kemp IV, who gets blasted turning the corner and loses the ball, which Nebraska recovers. The Huskers would fumble three times and drop another snap, recovering all four — a pretty fortunate piece of luck.
Now in a passing down, Nebraska gets in Empty again and calls a concept it would go back to several times, a sort of diagonal hitch route from the No. 2 receiver with a short post right behind it from the No. 3:
This concept sort of functions like “Snag,” which I’ve talked about before, creating both a horizontal and vertical stretch on zone defenders, in this case the linebacker caught between the two routes. That LB steps up to the snag route, leading to the throw behind him on the short post. This seemed like a gameplan special — Nebraska hadn’t run it this year, Satterfield would go back to it in some variation of this high-low five times this game, and Northwestern had super heavy zone coverage tendencies (96.3% zone coverage usage for the game).
This pass is a little high and Fidone can’t reel it in, with a deflection going right to a Northwestern defensive back for the second interception in the first six offensive snaps.
DRIVE 4
8 Plays, 4.4 Yards Per Play
37.5% Success Rate
0 Explosive Plays, 1 Havoc Play Allowed
NU stops shooting itself in the foot for the next three drives, putting together some sustained success.
This drive opens with a Freeze Option play to the outside, Nebraska’s most successful concept so far this year, which gets blown up for a loss. One thing to watch here is how fast the Northwestern safety to the boundary (the player to the top of the screen standing on the 45-yard-line at the snap), flies down when he sees the option backfield action from 9 yards deep, to the point where he is possibly on a predetermined blitz:
That will be important later.
But Northwestern was clearly heavily prepped for this play, with that safety firing down the instant he saw the backfield action developing. Nebraska has been repetitive in the formations it’s run that play out of, with 75% of its usage coming out of a pistol or shotgun trips alignments with a wing tight end. I think Satterfield has generally been pretty fine at disguising stuff or mixing in new variables to confuse looks, but the formations that option play is run out of is a big tendency right now for defenses, and Northwestern keyed on it here for a loss.
The negative play gets erased when Haarberg makes a nice second-reaction scramble play on the ensuing third-and-8, throwing the ball over the heads of the second-level defenders after they suck forward on him scrambling while he stays what must’ve been millimeters behind the line.
The play design was a little Shallow Cross concept, a high-low read with Kemp underneath and Fidone on the deeper dig route, but the initial timing gets messed up when Northwestern chips Kemp before dropping into a Drop 8 coverage. The Wildcats would drop into Drop 8 or Drop 9 coverage out of their four-man front on almost every third-and-long or play or when Nebraska was in empty. They knew the Huskers were throwing the ball and (correctly) figured flooding passing lanes with zone defenders would short-circuit Nebraska’s bad passing attack. The Wildcats would go to this Drop 8/9 pressure on 62.5% of Nebraska’s third-and-5 or longer snaps Saturday and 57% of Nebraska’s Empty alignment plays.
Now with an initial first down, the Huskers get a couple nice runs from freshman back Emmett Johnson to open the next set of downs off Inside Zone, then run Counter three times in a row, for 10, 1 and 2 yards. The first two Counter runs are with bubble screen tags; Haarberg has the option of throwing the ball out depending on box count and the behavior of the Apex defender just outside the box. He probably misreads the first one and gives it instead of throwing it, but it still results in a 10-yard run, but the second of these plays is just stuffed. On the third counter run, a more traditional look, the corner to that side flies inside the receiver’s block and makes a shoestring tackle, probably preventing a house call run from Anthony Grant. Like the safeties, the Northwestern corners were flying downhill on the run, to the point it’s difficult to tell if they were called blitzes. The run was clearly emphasized in Northwestern’s gameplan.
Now in a third and long, Satterfield again calls the Snag play out of Empty, with Northwestern dropping into its Cover 3 Drop 8 check against Empty again:
Haarberg this time goes to the snag route from Janiran Bonner. The read is a little cloudier, but Bonner does have inside leverage, and I’m sure Haarberg’s instructed to throw that if it’s open on first read. The pass is on the money but dropped, though it wouldn’t have converted anyway. But the drive was enough to get in range to convert a long field goal.
DRIVE 5
7 Plays, 4.6 Yards Per Play
28.6% Success Rate
1 Explosive Play, 1 Havoc Play Allowed
Nebraska starts this drive with a nice inside run from Anthony Grant on Duo, getting 11 yards. The Huskers’ front was just better than the Wildcats in the short area, so they were really able really generate some good push on inside runs, even if they didn’t always result in good plays.
For the next two snaps, NU then debuted an orbit motion triple option package, a staple of former coach Scott Frost’s 2021 offense:
Northwestern brings slot or corner blitzes on both these plays, making them pretty much DOA, but I like the idea of incorporating more diverse option looks — as it’s what Haarberg does best — and bringing in some triple option concepts. Nebraska entered using triple option runs or RPOs on just 1.8% of its snaps this season, but would use them on 7.4% of the snaps Saturday. 3
The Wildcats entered this stretch pretty blitz heavy, bringing an extra rusher on four snaps over Drives 4 and 5. Which doesn’t sound like a lot, but, for Northwestern’s conservative defense, is. The Wildcats were playing with two deep safeties and standard boxes on nearly every snap, so not necessarily super run-heavy looks, but they did bring more pressure than normal coming out of the bye week.
After a false start penalty makes it third and 13, Nebraska gets in Empty again, and Northwestern checks into its drop package again, this time sending nine players into coverage. Nebraska is running the same Shallow Cross concept from the last drive, and Northwestern manages to pressure Haarberg out of the pocket with just two pass rushers, and he scrambles ahead for another lucky/second-reaction conversion in third and long. Not necessarily good offense, but I’m not going to get mad about a conversion. That was NU’s first explosive play of the game; NU would have a season-low in explosives, at just 9.26%. The season average entering was 12.2%. This was also Nebraska’s second-worst game from an overall success rate perspective since Michigan.
After a zone Windback run goes nowhere, a Northwestern safety again blows up an outside option play by flying down at the snap on the action:
The payoff for these option plays is coming in the second half, but, for now, it’s third and long. Which in this game means Nebraska in Empty and Northwestern is in Drop 8, resulting in a scramble for no gain and a punt.
DRIVE 6
10 Plays, 6.2 Yards Per Play
90% Success Rate
1 Explosive Play, 0 Havoc Plays Allowed
Nebraska gets 45% of its total successful plays for the game over the next 10 snaps, cashing it in with the score before halftime to take the lead. Northwestern is continuing to play light or standard boxes with two-high safety shells, and Satterfield starts spreading out the Nebraska formations (and the Northwestern defense) to finally get the run game going. The first five snaps of this drive are out of a spread shotgun trips formation, with a nice mix of read runs and passes. The first play gains 9 yards off a GT Counter Bash play on a give to the leak-out running back, followed by a couple inside runs from an Inside Zone RPO and a straight no-read Duo.
Across the 40, Satterfield dials up a deep play-action shot, Nebraska’s first play-action pass of the game well into the second quarter. The pass is well-covered with the two safeties deep, and Haarberg checks down. The few deep shots Saturday was understandable — NW played two-high on 75.9% of its snaps, limiting big passes and giving your offense favorable counts to run — but Nebraska is also only running play-action on about 25% of its total dropbacks, and with the resources teams (outside of Northwestern) are devoting to the box, you’d think some more downfield shots would be available. I had hoped more play action would be a post-bye adjustment, but it’s probably still too early to tell.
Once inside the 30, Satterfield goes back to relying on the option but out of heavier personnels, with a Freeze Option picking up 20 yards, a short give coming off a Split Zone Read play, and then Haarberg keeping around the edge on a Duo read play for a score. After the first three drives featured zero read-run plays, the last three have used 10 on the last 19 plays. Overall, NU’s read rate was elevated Saturday, at 50% from a season average of 38% and a 61.1% success rate on those snaps, 20 percentage points higher than Nebraska’s general offense.
You can make the case this is the best drive by Nebraska’s offense this season: Consistent execution over a long stretch with no mistakes, scoring a touchdown while running out the rest of the half. We haven’t had many of these recently!
DRIVE 7
6 Plays, 1.7 Yards Per Play
16.7% Success Rate
0 Explosive Plays, 2 Havoc Plays Allowed
Coming out of the half, Satterfield sticks with what’s worked, spreading out into the wide trey formation for the first five snaps of this drive and running option. It doesn’t go quite as well, with a fumbled option exchange on the same GT Counter Bash play as the last drive when Haarberg tries to give the ball late, with Joshua Fleeks recovering the fumble. They get 10 yards back on a quick Stick concept, setting up a third and 6.
Expecting pass on a passing down, Northwestern tries to get exotic to get off the field, lining up in a pressure package with a Diamond Mug front and playing Cover 1, a man coverage. But Nebraska isn’t passing at all, running a Freeze Option to convert:
The Wildcats had been in zone coverage on 32 of their 33 snaps to this point, with the lone exception being when Nebraska was on the 3 yard line about to score. Man is great as a change-up on third down if you’re a zone heavy team, because it throws something unexpected at the quarterback and can cause hesitation on a throw. But the downside to man is that no one is looking for the quarterback run game. Your defensive backs’ eyes are locked on the receivers, not surveying the field in front of them as in zone, and it can leave you open to being burned by a quick-hitting run or scramble. Northwestern thought they would be tricking Nebraska, but Nebraska’s call ended up tricking Northwestern.
But the drive stalls on a short quarterback draw Northwestern was ready for and a dropped snap on an RPO, giving Nebraska another third-and-long. It again lines up in Empty to throw, with Haarberg chucking a deep ball to a Sail concept into Northwestern’s two-high double coverage:
Nebraska has been typically throwing quick hitters out of Empty, so a deeper three-step concept like Sail (an outside clearout vertical route with a 12-yard corner or out route breaking to the sideline behind it) was a changeup. But something was messed up with the route distribution here:
There should be more separation between the vertical and the corner route; with the two receivers so close together, both defenders can cover both the pass routes. I think No. 15 Malachi Coleman took his Sail route too deep, resulting in the big bunch of players downfield. That should break at 10-12 yards, and he looks like he took the top of the route maybe 20 yards. The struggles of young receivers.
DRIVE 8
3 Plays, 0.0 Yards Per Play
0% Success Rate
0 Explosive Plays, 1 Havoc Play Allowed
NU going three-and-out off three straight passes elicited a groan from fans, but the calls in the situation were all solid.
Northwestern was playing almost exclusively two-high safeties, but on each of the first two snaps of this drive, the Wildcats brought down a safety to stop the run, leaving them vulnerable, at last, to some shots down the field. Satterfield took them.
The first was a Jet-motion play-action boot off a zone blocking scheme, with the Jet motion man turning into a wheel route on a Post-Wheel concept:
I talked about Post-Wheel last game, which Nebraska ran on 16% of its dropbacks in the previous game against single-high heavy Illinois. With Northwestern now finally in single-high, Nebraska gets the perfect look for this call, with the deep ⅓ zone defender having to choose between covering the in-breaking post route and the wheel route up the sidelines.
The added wrinkle here is the motion man becoming the downfield vertical threat to the opposite side of the formation. Defenses distribute coverage by numbering the receiver alignments at the snap of the ball. Before the motion, the receiver and tight end to the side of the field where Nebraska runs the play would have been the “No. 1” and “No. 2” receivers to the secondary to that side, with the motioning Alex Bullock starting as the “No. 1” receiver to the opposite side of the field:
But after the snap, with Bullock in motion, the distribution — and therefore the responsibilities of the secondary — change. The outside receiver is still No. 1, but Bullock is now becoming the No. 2/3 on the opposite side:
The added confusion on the defense helps Bullock get lost by the coverage up the sideline while the tight end stays in to block.
But the good design doesn’t matter when Haarberg short-arms the throw, turning what should have been a 30-plus yard gain and and a set-up for likely points into a second and 10. I think it’s good to be patient with a young QB, but this is another throw you cannot, under any circumstances, miss. Much like the interception to open the game, the receiver has huge separation, there’s no rush, and you have plenty of time to set your feet and deliver a good ball — and he doesn’t. His running ability and the way defenses stack the box against Nebraska mean he doesn’t need to be a highly advance passer, dicing people on quick game from the pocket. But to be a functional college quarterback he needs to be able to cash in the wide-open plays Nebraska is getting. This is another one of those, “If you want to continue being the starting quarterback of a college team you need to hit this throw” throws, and to this point in the game he’s 0-for-2.
On second down, Northwestern again lines up in single-high safeties, and Satterfield tries to burn them downfield again, this time off a pulling-lineman play-action with a Double Posts routes combination behind it. This one, to Haarberg’s credit, is right on the money but is broken up by a drop/good coverage. A lot more forgivable.
But now in third and 10, Nebraska has to throw for a third time, running its mirrored Curl/Flat-Slant Flat concept, which is batted down at the line.
DRIVE 9
4 Plays, 7.25 Yards Per Play
25% Success Rate
1 Explosive Play, 0 Havoc Plays Allowed
Backed up at its own 5, Nebraska gets its third explosive of the day on a long run by Johnson off a variation of under-center Counter, with the two tight ends as the pullers. But Northwestern is back in two-high again, with the deep safety cutting off the run before it can get past the 30.
But Nebraska struggles to block a light box on the next two run plays for short gains, and on third and 5 tries to run Inverted Veer out of a spread shotgun formation again, with another Northwestern safety flying down the instant he sees the run action to help blow up the play. Satterfield was probably noting that for the next series.
DRIVE 10
1 Play, 44.0 Yards Per Play
100% Success Rate
1 Explosive Play, 0 Havoc Plays Allowed
KABOOM. Nebraska finally makes Northwestern’s safeties pay for peeking in the backfield:
The Wildcats are again in Cover 2, meaning the corner is responsible for the flat area in zone coverage and the deep safety is responsible for the entire deep half of the field. Northwestern had been in Cover 2 on about half their snaps to this point in the game, so Nebraska had a good idea what was coming from the coverage, especially with two safeties lined up deep before the snap on this play.
The backfield action suggests one of Nebraska’s Load Option plays to the right, with Haarberg and the running back taking their option paths, and the fullback and pulling guard wheeling out as they would for Load. Both the Northwestern corner and safety to the play side are both looking in the backfield, and while they’re not firing downhill, they’re not getting major depth at the snap as they’re supposed to against the pass, either.
Meanwhile, Nebraska has another Sail concept — a common Cover 2 beater for its ability to create vertical separation on the Cover 2 defenders to the side of the field — with the tight end to the option side taking his initial option blocking steps before releasing on a drag route, the backside receiver running a crossing route toward the playside sideline, and the playside receiver on a vertical route. What that creates is a three-player responsibility for two coverage players: The corner and safety are forced between choosing the flat route, the sail route, or the vertical, with whichever one they don’t cover coming open:
In the end, it doesn’t matter, as Coleman just runs right by the safety — the very aggressive #9 — on the vertical for his first career touchdown. The safety isn’t quite so aggressive and actually backpedals a bit at the snap, but he doesn’t see it’s pass until far too late. Haarberg likely could have had any of the three routes he wanted; the Northwestern coverage was completely destroyed. A vertical touchdown over the top is best, though.
DRIVE 11
5 Plays, 4.2 Yards Per Play
40% Success Rate
0 Explosive Plays, 0 Havoc Plays Allowed
Late in the game following the big touchdown, Nebraska is looking to score but also run some time off the clock on the final two drives. Northwestern still isn’t super prioritizing stopping the run, with two safeties deep and standard/light boxes on every play of this drive. Nebraska gets a couple nice initial runs off read plays, with Haarberg keeping outside after Northwestern collapses down on a Duo action and Johnson taking a Counter read for 10 yards. Counter got over double its normal usage this game, at 25.7% of Nebraska’s total run snaps. It entered at about 9% usage through the first six games. I imagine Satterfield liked the idea of pullers against the Wildcats’ four-man front, generating a numbers advantage to one side.
But on the next set of downs, an Outside Zone run — out of the formation Nebraska has been running the Freeze Option play out of — gets stuffed, putting Nebraska in a passing down. Northwestern aligns in a single-high look, so Nebraska checks into a deep Double Posts pass, with Satterfield going for the kill, but Haarberg checks the ball down. Now in third and long, Satterfield calls a short, safe Stick concept that doesn’t get the yardage it needs, forcing a punt.
DRIVE 12
4 Plays, 5.75 Yards Per Play
25% Success Rate
1 Explosive Play, 0 Havoc Plays Allowed
Nebraska has a chance to run out the clock and the win with a good drive, but it fails after a good initial first run from Haarberg on another Counter read play with attached Jet motion. Northwestern finally brings players into the box this drive, with the first three plays all in single-high. Nebraska still tries to run into it, with the Jet Counter play again for 3 yards and a Duo inside for 3 more yards, firmly in safe territory and just running up the middle. On third and 4, NU does pass to try to convert and run more clock — one more time out of Empty — but doesn’t complete the Stick concept. But luckily the defense holds.
Nebraska’s last possession is two kneeldowns, which I’m counting as garbage time.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Sorry for the late post; my internet at home has been in-and-out with some maintenance my provider didn’t inform anyone about?? So I’m running behind on producing these. I’m still planning a defensive recap, though it may not be in the usual form this week, as I may not have time to get all the visuals done. But something will be out. Apologies!
Yards Per Play measures how many non-penalty yards NU gained on a possession divided by its non-penalty snaps, a measure of its efficiency. Success Rate measures how often an NU play gained 50% or more of the yards it needed on a first down, 70% or more of the yards it needed on second down, or 100% or more of the yards it needed on third or fourth down. An Explosive Play is any designed run that gains more than 12 yards and any designed pass that gains more than 16 yards. A Havoc Play Allowed is any tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception, pass break-up or batted ball NU allows.
Also … look who makes the tackle after flying down from his safety spot … #9.